College Basketball Best Bets: December 13, 2025

The college basketball slate for December 13th is absolutely loaded with high-stakes matchups, featuring some of the nation's most efficient teams. I've crunched the numbers, analyzed the advanced metrics from KenPom and BartTorvik, and synthesized the key matchups to bring you the sharpest picks for today's action.

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💰 Best Bet 1: The Kansas Jayhawks Moneyline

Game Details: Kansas Jayhawks at N.C. State Wolfpack

• Scheduled Time: 12:00 PM EST

• Recommendation: Kansas Moneyline (ML)

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Analysis and Rationale

This matchup pits an elite Kansas squad against a struggling N.C. State team, creating a significant efficiency mismatch. While N.C. State plays at a very slow pace (288th in Adjusted Tempo), Kansas's superior talent and defensive prowess should allow them to control the game regardless of the tempo.

📊 Statistical Mismatch

Kansas ranks 22nd overall in BartTorvik's rankings and boasts an elite defense, ranking 11th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjDE). They are particularly strong at defending the two-point shot (46.3% 2P%D, 19th nationally).

N.C. State, conversely, ranks 116th overall and struggles significantly on offense (147th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, AdjOE). Their effective field goal percentage (eFG%) is abysmal, ranking 295th nationally.

📰 Key Player Breakdown

Kansas's offense is anchored by Hunter Dickinson, who is dominant inside (56.2% 2P shooting) and holds an 8.9 BPM (Box Plus/Minus). N.C. State's interior defense is average (177th in 2P%D), which should allow Dickinson and the Kansas frontcourt to operate effectively.

Furthermore, N.C. State has shown an inability to win close or quality games, holding a 2-8 record in close games and an 0-8 record in Quad 1 games (Pre-Tourney data). Kansas, despite a few early losses, has proven they can handle quality competition (6-12 in Q1 games). The statistical gap is too wide for N.C. State to overcome, even at home.

💰 Best Bet 2: The Purdue Boilermakers -19.5

Game Details: Marquette Golden Eagles at Purdue Boilermakers

• Scheduled Time: 2:00 PM EST

• Recommendation: Purdue Moneyline (ML)

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐

Analysis and Rationale

This is a fantastic non-conference battle between two top-30 teams. While Marquette is a strong team known for forcing turnovers (8th in TO% on defense), Purdue's offense is simply too explosive and efficient to bet against, especially in a high-profile home environment.

📊 Statistical Mismatch

Purdue is an offensive juggernaut, ranking 8th in AdjOE and 22nd in eFG%. They are elite from beyond the arc, ranking 15th nationally with a 38.2% 3P shooting percentage.

Marquette's defense is solid (31st AdjDE), but they have a major vulnerability: defending the two-point shot. Purdue's strength is scoring inside (55.1% 2P, 45th nationally), but the biggest edge comes from the perimeter. Marquette's 3P% defense ranks 68th, which is good, but Purdue's 3P offense is top-15.

The key factor here is Purdue's overall efficiency edge (Barthag 0.937, 15th) over Marquette (Barthag 0.8924, 30th).

📰 Key Player Breakdown

Purdue's offense runs through Trey Kaufman-Renn, who has a massive 31.1% Usage Rate and is highly efficient, shooting 59.7% on two-pointers and 42.9% on three-pointers. Braden Smith is the primary playmaker, ranking 44.1% in Assist Rate.

While Marquette's Kam Jones is a high-usage star (29.2% Usg), Purdue's ability to score efficiently across the board, combined with their superior overall ranking, makes them the safer bet to secure the win. Marquette's best chance is forcing turnovers, but Purdue is relatively careful with the ball (15.7% TO%).

💰 Best Bet 3: Arizona Wildcats at Alabama Crimson Tide Over Total Points

Game Details: Arizona Wildcats at Alabama Crimson Tide

• Scheduled Time: 9:30 PM EST

• Recommendation: Over Total Points (Line not provided, but bet the Over on the posted total)

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Analysis and Rationale

This is the marquee matchup of the night, featuring two of the most potent and fastest offenses in college basketball. This game is a guaranteed track meet, and the total points line will likely be high, but the combined offensive firepower and pace suggest the Over is the play.

📊 Statistical Mismatch

Alabama is the fastest team in the nation, ranking 1st in Adjusted Tempo (75.1 possessions per game). Arizona is also fast, ranking 51st (70.3 possessions per game). More possessions mean more scoring opportunities.

Beyond pace, both offenses are elite:

• Alabama: 3rd in AdjOE, 4th in 2P% (59.7%), and 35th in 3P Rate (46.6%).

• Arizona: 9th in AdjOE, 51st in 2P% (54.7%), and 16th in Offensive Rebounding (OR% 36.0%).

While both defenses are solid (Alabama 26th AdjDE, Arizona 34th AdjDE), the sheer volume of possessions combined with top-10 offensive efficiency ratings makes scoring inevitable. Alabama's defense is excellent at defending the perimeter (19th in 3P%D), but Arizona's offense is balanced and can score inside.

📰 Key Player Breakdown

Alabama's Mark Sears (26.7% Usage) and Arizona's Caleb Love (24.0% Usage) are high-volume scorers who thrive in transition. Alabama's offense has been scorching hot recently, with a Last 10 Adjusted Efficiency ranking of 7th nationally. Arizona's offense has been even better, ranking 3rd nationally in Last 10 Adjusted Efficiency.

The combination of the nation's fastest pace and two top-10 offenses that are peaking in efficiency makes the Over the most confident play on the board. Expect a shootout that easily clears the projected total.