Francisco Cerúndolo vs Casper Ruud Predictions & Player Props (May 2)

Francisco Cerúndolo will look to continue his breakout 2025 season when he meets Norwegian star Casper Ruud in a high-stakes Madrid Masters semifinal on Sunday. Cerúndolo is playing arguably the best tennis of his career and leads their head-to-head, but Ruud brings a wealth of big-match experience and a perfect record in clay-court Masters quarterfinals. With a place in the Madrid final at stake, expect a closely fought battle between two in-form clay specialists.

Match Info

• Date: May 3rd

• Time: 9:00 AM Eastern Time (ET)

• Venue: Caja Mágica, Madrid, Spain

• Where to Watch: Tennis Channel / ATP Tour Live Streaming

Betting Odds

Player	Spread	Moneyline	Total Games
Francisco Cerúndolo	-1.5 (+115)	-125	Over 22.5 (-110)
Casper Ruud	+1.5 (-140)	+100	Under 22.5 (-110)

Preview

Francisco Cerúndolo Preview

Cerúndolo comes into this semifinal on the back of a hard-fought three-set win over Miami Masters champion Jakub Mensik, his 24th win of the season—more than any other player on the ATP Tour in 2025. The Argentine is playing with confidence and has avoided a repeat quarterfinal exit in Madrid. With five wins over top-20 players this year, Cerúndolo is demonstrating the consistency and belief needed to break new ground. Still chasing his first Masters title, the 25-year-old will see this match as a golden opportunity to reach the final and continue his incredible run.

Recent Form: WWWLW

Casper Ruud Preview

Despite some recent stumbles, Ruud delivered a statement performance in the quarterfinals by dismantling world No. 4 Daniil Medvedev in straight sets. That marked his eighth top-10 win since early 2024, underscoring his ability to rise to the occasion on big stages. While Ruud has a stellar 7–0 record in clay Masters quarterfinals, his 1–5 record in semifinals raises questions about his ability to take that final step. With his Madrid run boosting him back toward the top 10, Ruud will be highly motivated to reach his first final at this tournament.

Recent Form: WLWWL

Key Stats

• Cerúndolo has won 5 of 8 career meetings with Ruud, including 2 of 4 on clay.

• Ruud is 7–0 in clay-court Masters quarterfinals but only 1–5 in semifinals.

• Cerúndolo leads the ATP Tour in main draw wins (24) in 2025.

• Ruud has 8 wins over top-10 players since 2024, including Medvedev this week.

• Cerúndolo has reached just one Masters semifinal before this, losing to Ruud in Miami 2022.

  
  

Player Props

• Cerúndolo to Win & Both Players to Win a Set (+220): Cerúndolo’s form suggests he can take this in three sets, just like he did against Mensik.

• Ruud Over 1.5 Breaks of Serve (-125): Despite potential struggles, Ruud’s clay-court return game remains dangerous and consistent.

  

  
  

Final Prediction

This matchup pits form against experience. Ruud’s big-match resume and powerful baseline game make him a dangerous opponent, especially on clay. However, Cerúndolo’s confidence and recent win streak—including five top-20 victories—gives him a slight edge. Expect a long, competitive battle that may swing on a few key moments.

Prediction: Cerúndolo wins in three sets

Pick: Cerúndolo ML (-125) | Over 22.5 Games (-110)