Today’s MLB Top Homerun Props for 6/4/25
- Lee Shipley
- Jun 4
- 2 min read
Alright, home run fanatics! If you're looking for the ultimate edge in predicting dingers, you've come to the right place. Our recent track record speaks for itself – we've been absolutely crushing it in the home run prediction game over the last week. That's all thanks to the incredible power of Pine Sports AI JaXon, which meticulously analyzes every crucial factor, from intricate batter-pitcher matchups and unique ballpark dimensions to individual pitcher tendencies and their hard-hit rates. So, get ready to see who's primed to launch one into orbit today, because JaXon has identified the top contenders!
The Addison Barger Bomb (Toronto Blue Jays)
Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue JaysGame Time: 7:07 PM EDT
Recent Performance: Barger has hit the over on 0.5 home runs in 80% of his last 5 games, showcasing strong recent form.
Vs. Opponent: He has a 100% hit rate against the Phillies in 2025 (1 HR in 1 game).
Ballpark Factor: Rogers Centre is slightly hitter-friendly, which could boost his chances.
Odds: +430 for over 0.5 home runs at FanDuel.
Recommendation: Barger’s recent form and success against the Phillies make him a strong candidate for a home run today.
The Kyle Manzardo Bomb (Cleveland Guardians)
Analysis:
Recent Performance:
Manzardo has not hit a home run in his last 5 or 10 games, with a 0% hit rate over those spans.
Over the last 20 games, he has hit the over just 5% of the time, and his season-long average is 0.19 home runs per game.
Against the Yankees in 2025, he has hit 1 home run in 3 matchups, giving him a 33.33% hit rate.
Away Game Factor:
As a visitor, Manzardo has a 17.86% hit rate for over 0.5 home runs, which is slightly better than his overall season average.
Recommendation:
While the over at +446 offers value, the data does not support a strong likelihood of Manzardo hitting a home run but I love his numbers today!
The Aaron Judge Bomb
(New York Yankees)
Matchup: Cleveland Guardians @ New York YankeesGame Time: 7:05 PM EDT
Recent Performance: Judge has hit the over on 0.5 home runs in 40% of his last 10 games.
Ballpark Factor: Yankee Stadium is one of the most hitter-friendly parks for home runs.
Odds: +200 for over 0.5 home runs at FanDuel.
Recommendation: Judge’s power and the favorable ballpark make him a reliable pick.
Today’s Honorable Mentions!
Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox)
Matchup: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox
Game Time: June 4, 2025, 1:35 PM EDT
Prop Line: Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs
Odds:
Over 0.5: +675 (BetMGM)
Parker Meadows (Detroit Tigers)
Prop Data: No specific home run prop data was available for Meadows.
Recent News: Meadows recently returned from injury and has been performing well, including a strong debut game with 2 hits and 3 runs scored. However, his power numbers remain limited, and he is not a consistent home run threat. But I like his Numbers!
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