Home Run Predictions: Hit it Out of the Park with The Outlet Sports Ventures DINGERZ!
- Lee Shipley
- Jun 24
- 4 min read
Updated: Jul 5
Welcome to The Outlet Sports Ventures DINGERZ Article! Hope you are ready for some home run predictions for today’s games? We've got you covered with our top recommendations, all based on in-depth analysis of pitcher-batter matchups, slugging percentages, and park factors. Each pick comes with a detailed breakdown and a direct link to place your bets, making it super easy. Oh, and did we mention all this awesome data is powered by Pine Sports AI JaXon? Let’s get to work & take some risk for some big payouts!
The Rafael Devers Bomb
(San Francisco Giants)
Best Over Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds for Over: +400
Book: FanDuel
Analysis: Devers has hit a home run in 20% of his last 5, 10, and 20 games. There's a slight uptick to 26.67% over his last 15 games. His season-long home run rate is 19.75%. At home, he boasts a 21.28% hit rate. Against the Miami Marlins in 2024, he failed to hit a home run in 3 matchups. While the odds of +400 seem enticing, his recent and season-long trends suggest this is a speculative bet.
The Pete Crow-Armstrong Bomb
(Chicago Cubs)
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+408) at Pinnacle
Analysis: Crow-Armstrong has a solid track record lately. He has hit the over in 60% of his last 5 games and 40% of his last 10 games. His home run hit rate as a visitor in 2025 is 25%. Busch Stadium is generally neutral for home runs. However, Crow-Armstrong’s recent form and current odds provide good value.
The Yandy Díaz Bomb
(Tampa Bay Rays)
Best Over Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds for Over: +600
Book: FanDuel
Analysis: Yandy Díaz has demonstrated low but consistent power output. He has hit a home run in 20% of his last 5, 10, 15, and 20 games. Against the Kansas City Royals in 2025, he has a 33.33% hit rate for home runs. His season-long home run rate is just 15.28%, and as a visitor, it drops to 8.33%. While the +600 odds promise significant returns, the low hit rates suggest a high-risk, high-reward scenario.
The Alec Burleson Bomb
(St. Louis Cardinals)
Best Over Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds for Over: +480
Book: FanDuel
Analysis: Burleson showcases variable performance. He has a home run rate of 40% in his last 5 games, but it dips to 30% over his last 10 games. His season-long home run percentage is 13.04%, slightly lower at home with 13.51%. Against the Chicago Cubs in 2024, he had a 23.08% hit rate for home runs. The +480 odds provide decent value, but be cautious—overall trends suggest this is a long shot.
The Kyle Schwarber Bomb
(Philadelphia Phillies)
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+431) at Pinnacle
Analysis: Schwarber finds himself in a decent position. He has excelled with a 40% hit rate in his last 5 games and 30% over his last 10. His history against Framber Valdez shows promise, including 2 home runs in 16 plate appearances. Daikin Park is slightly hitter-friendly, ranking 6th for home runs. Given his power and past performance against Valdez, he makes for a strong, appealing pick.
The Honorable Mentions!
Here we highlight players who didn’t make the top list but still have potential for home runs today.
Additional Players to Watch
Joey Gallo: Known for his power, he could surprise.
Fernando Tatis Jr.: Always a threat at the plate.
The Top 3 Ballparks with the Best Chance to Give Up Home Runs!
Alright, if you're looking for where the long balls are gonna fly today, June 24, 2025, I've got the scoop! I dug into the park factors, checked out the latest weather, and even looked at who's pitching. Here are the three ballparks most likely to see some dingers!
Coors Field (Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies)
Park Factor: Coors Field ranks #1 in home run friendliness with a 207 HR Park Factor (107% above league average). It also leads in overall Park Factor at 112, making it the most hitter-friendly venue in MLB.
Weather: High temperatures are anticipated. The thin air of altitude significantly enhances the ball's carry.
Starting Pitchers:
- Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani (RHP) – Ohtani is strong, but Coors Field can neutralize even the best pitchers.
- Rockies: Ryan Feltner (RHP) – He has struggled, evident from his 4.75 ERA and a pattern of allowing hard contact.
Analysis: Coors Field's altitude, warm weather, and a weak Rockies pitching staff combine to make this the top home run park today.
Great American Ball Park (New York Yankees @ Cincinnati Reds)
Park Factor: Ranked #5 in home run friendliness with a 128 HR Park Factor. Known as a hitter's paradise, it's especially favorable to power hitters.
Weather: Low 90s temperature and 60% humidity create ideal conditions for extended ball flight.
Starting Pitchers:
- Yankees: Carlos Rodón (LHP) – Rodón has allowed a .448 SLG to opposing hitters throughout his career against the Reds' lineup.
- Reds: Chase Burns (RHP) – Making his debut, Burns presents an unknown risk against a strong Yankees lineup.
Analysis: The combination of favorable conditions and a rookie pitcher against the Yankees makes this park a prime candidate for home runs.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles)
Park Factor: Ranked #11 in home run friendliness with a 123 HR Park Factor. It's a solid venue for right-handed power hitters.
Weather: Warm temperatures alongside moderate humidity will enhance ball flight.
Starting Pitchers:
- Rangers: Jacob Latz (LHP) – Latz has allowed a .943 xSLG and .587 xwOBA in limited appearances against the Orioles.
- Orioles: Charlie Morton (RHP) – Despite being a seasoned pitcher, Morton’s lineup is filled with power threats who can exploit Camden Yards’ dimensions.
Analysis: The park's setup, combined with Latz's inconsistencies, makes this a prime location for home runs today.
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