Unlocking Profits with Today's Top DINGERZ Props
- Lee Shipley
- Jul 26
- 5 min read
Updated: Aug 5
I've thoroughly analyzed today's MLB matchups to uncover some fantastic home run opportunities. We’re focusing on favorable hitter-pitcher matchups, recent performances, and park factors. All this data is powered by Pine Sports AI JaXon, so you know it’s reliable! Ready for my top picks?
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Kyle Schwarber Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +220
Book Link: ESPN BET
Matchup: Kyle Schwarber faces New York Yankees right-hander Marcus Stroman. Schwarber's career numbers against Stroman show a .214 batting average and a .286 slugging percentage in 17 plate appearances. However, his recent form indicates he’s in a different zone.
Analysis: Schwarber has been hitting the ball hard lately. He has hit the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last five games and 60% of his last ten games. He has already blasted 34 home runs this season and is on pace for another 100+ runs and RBI campaign. His elite power and "lift-and-pull" tendencies are evident. Playing at Yankee Stadium, which has a hitter-friendly home run park factor of 121, enhances his chances. Notably, he hit a home run against the Yankees in their only 2025 matchup.
The Nick Kurtz Bomb (Oakland Athletics)
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +350
Book Link: ESPN BET
Matchup: Nick Kurtz and the Athletics will face the Houston Astros, who are expected to start right-hander Hunter Brown. While there isn't extensive individual history between Kurtz and Brown, the overall team matchup history is compelling.
Analysis: Kurtz has shown a remarkable ability to hit home runs against the Astros this season. He has hit the over in 66.67% of his six matchups against them, averaging an impressive 1.17 home runs per game in those contests. Recent reports suggest Kurtz is "figuring it out" after a slow start, indicating an uptick in his hard-hit rates and slugging percentage. The game will be played at Daikin Park, which has a slightly hitter-friendly home run park factor of 105, boosting his chances.
The Cody Bellinger Bomb (New York Yankees)
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +600
Book Link: BetMGM
Matchup: Cody Bellinger is set to face Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Ranger Suárez. In 10 career plate appearances against Suárez, Bellinger has recorded 3 hits, including 2 doubles, with a .500 slugging percentage and an average exit velocity of 83.4 mph. While he hasn't hit a home run off Suárez specifically, the doubles indicate strong power potential.
Analysis: Bellinger has been in good form recently, hitting the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last five games. He also hit a home run against the Phillies in their only 2025 matchup, showcasing his capability against this opponent. The game is at Yankee Stadium, a premier home run park with a factor of 121, making it conducive to long balls. Given his recent power surge and the favorable park environment, Bellinger presents a high-upside opportunity.
Today’s Long Shot Hitters!
The Vinnie Pasquantino Bomb (Kansas City Royals)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +575
Book: BetRivers
Vinnie Pasquantino is set to face the Cleveland Guardians today. While hitting a home run is always a challenge, there are some interesting trends to consider for Pasquantino.
Recent Performance: Pasquantino has hit the over on his home run prop in 20% of his last 5 games and 10% of his last 10 games, averaging 0.4 and 0.2 home runs respectively. Over his last 20 games, he’s hit the over 20% of the time, averaging 0.3 home runs. His season-long hit rate for home runs is 14.85%.
Vs. Opponent: Against the Cleveland Guardians in 2025, Pasquantino has hit the over on his home run prop in 33.33% of his 6 appearances, averaging 0.33 home runs. In 2024, he hit the over 27.27% of the time in 11 games against them, averaging 0.27 home runs. This suggests a slightly better historical performance against the Guardians compared to his overall recent form.
While his recent overall home run rate is low, the slightly higher hit rate against the Guardians in past matchups, combined with the attractive +575 odds, makes this a potential long-shot play for those looking for high-value opportunities.
The Tyler O'Neill Bomb (Baltimore Orioles)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +475
Book: BetRivers
Tyler O'Neill takes on the Colorado Rockies today. O'Neill has shown some power, and his history against the Rockies is particularly noteworthy, albeit in a small sample size.
Recent Performance: O'Neill has hit the over on his home run prop in 20% of his last 5 games and 20% of his last 10 games, averaging 0.2 home runs in both stretches. Over his last 20 games, he’s hit the over 10% of the time, averaging 0.1 home runs. His season-long hit rate for home runs is 11.43%.
Vs. Opponent: Against the Colorado Rockies in 2025, O'Neill has hit the over on his home run prop in 100% of his single appearance, averaging 1 home run. In 2024, he hit the over 50% of the time in 2 games against them, averaging 1 home run. While these are small sample sizes, the 2025 performance is a perfect record.
Given his perfect 100% hit rate against the Rockies in 2025 (albeit in one game) and a 50% hit rate in 2024, O'Neill presents an intriguing high-odds opportunity, especially if he can tap into that past success against this specific opponent.
The Miguel Vargas Bombs (Chicago White Sox)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +475
Book: ESPN BET
Miguel Vargas is in action against the Chicago Cubs today. Vargas has shown some recent pop, and his 2025 matchup history against the Cubs is strong.
Recent Performance: Vargas has hit the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last 5 games, averaging 0.4 home runs. Over his last 10 games, he’s hit the over 20% of the time, averaging 0.2 home runs. His season-long hit rate for home runs is 11.0%.
Vs. Opponent: Against the Chicago Cubs in 2025, Vargas has hit the over on his home run prop in 50% of his 4 appearances, averaging 0.75 home runs. This is a significant improvement over his 2024 performance against them, where he had a 0% hit rate in 2 games. His recent form against the Cubs in 2025 is a strong indicator.
Vargas's recent 2025 performance against the Cubs, hitting a home run in half of his matchups, makes him a compelling pick at +475 odds, despite his lower overall season and recent 10-game rates.
The Brandon Nimmo Bomb (New York Mets)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +625
Book: BetMGM
Brandon Nimmo faces the San Francisco Giants today. While Nimmo isn't typically known as a power hitter, let's look at his home run trends.
Recent Performance: Nimmo has hit the over on his home run prop in 20% of his last 5 games, averaging 0.2 home runs. Over his last 10 games, he’s hit the over 10% of the time, averaging 0.1 home runs. His season-long hit rate for home runs is 15.84%.
Vs. Opponent: Against the San Francisco Giants in both 2025 (1 game) and 2024 (6 games), Nimmo has a 0% hit rate for home runs. This suggests a challenging matchup for him in terms of power.
Given Nimmo's low recent home run rates and his 0% hit rate against the Giants in recent history, this would be considered a significant long shot, even with the high +625 odds.
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