Top Home Run Prop Bets for Today's MLB Games
- Lee Shipley
- Jul 8
- 3 min read
Updated: Jul 17
Looking for some solid home run prop bets for today's MLB games? You've come to the right place! We've crunched the numbers, diving deep into recent player performance, matchup data, and the latest odds to bring you our top picks. Each recommendation comes with a full breakdown, plus a direct link to place your bet. And the best part? All this awesome data is powered by Pine Sports AI's JaXon!
Top Picks for Home Run Prop Bets
The Aaron Judge Bomb (New York Yankees)
Odds: +255
Book: BetRivers
Analysis:
Aaron Judge has been in solid form lately. He has hit the over on this prop in 60% of his last 5 games. Judge also has a 33.33% hit rate against the Mariners this season. Playing at home, he boasts a respectable 25.58% home run hit rate. His power and consistency make this a strong pick.
The Agustin Ramirez Bomb (Miami Marlins)
Matchup: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs: +360 at BetRivers
Analysis:
Ramirez has a 20% home run rate over his last 15 games and a season average of 0.22 home runs per game.
Against the Reds this season, he has hit 1 home run in 3 games, giving him a 33.33% success rate.
The game is at Great American Ball Park, one of the most hitter-friendly venues in MLB, boosting his chances of going yard.
Verdict: Ramirez has a solid chance to hit a home run today, especially considering the favorable park factors. The +360 odds offer strong value for a medium-risk bet.
The Corey Seager Bomb (Texas Rangers)
Odds: +420
Book: FanDuel
Analysis:
Corey Seager boasts a 50% hit rate in his last 10 games. He also has a consistent 50% hit rate against the Angels this season. His power numbers are impressive and the odds present excellent value for a player of his caliber.
Today’s High Risk High Reward Hitters!
The Willy Adames Bomb (SF Giants)
Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs: +592 at Pinnacle
Analysis:
Adames has had a tough time hitting home runs recently, showing a 20% rate over his last 5 games. His season average is at a mere 0.12 home runs per game.
Against the Phillies this season, he has only managed 1 home run in 5 games, translated to a 20% success rate.
Although this game is being played at home, his 7.14% home run rate is significantly below average for this season.
Verdict: The odds for the over are tempting, but the data does not strongly support Adames' likelihood of going yard today. This remains a high-risk wager.
The Victor Caratini Bomb (Houston Astros)
Odds: +600
Book: ESPN Bet
Analysis:
Caratini has hit the over in 60% of his last 5 games. He also holds a 33.33% hit rate against the Guardians this season. Although his overall season statistics are modest, his recent form and favorable matchup signify a high-upside opportunity.
The Bryce Harper Bomb (Phillies)
Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs: +550 at DraftKings
Analysis:
Harper's statistics reflect a 10% home run rate over his last 10 games and a season average of 0.14 home runs per game.
Against the Giants this season, he has hit 2 home runs in 5 games (40%). This is a notable improvement from his overall season rates.
The game is at Oracle Park, known as a pitcher-friendly venue, which may limit his offensive power.
Verdict: Harper has shown success against the Giants this season. However, his recent form along with park factors make this a risky bet. Despite that, the odds for the over are appealing for a modest wager.
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