Maximize Your Profits with Today's Top Homerun Bets!
- Lee Shipley
- Aug 11
- 5 min read
Updated: Aug 23
Let's dive into today's MLB action and pinpoint some hitters who could go yard! We'll look at recent hot streaks, historical matchups, and even how the ballparks play to find our best home run bets for the day. And a quick heads-up: all the data and research you're about to see is powered by the cutting-edge Pine Sports AI, JaXon.
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Junior Caminero Bomb (Tampa Bay Rays)
Key Stats:
- Over 0.5 HR hit rate (last 5 games): 60%
- Season Home Runs: 29
Betting Opportunity: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +285 odds
Matchup: Caminero will be up against left-handed pitcher Jeffrey Springs of the Athletics.
Why He's a Threat: Junior Caminero has been displaying significant power recently. He has hit the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last 5 games. As a right-handed hitter, he holds the platoon advantage against the left-handed Springs. This can often lead to more favorable pitches. He's also shown some pop against Springs in their limited history, hitting a double. While specific park factor data for Sutter Health Park isn't available, Caminero's recent form and the platoon advantage are strong indicators for a potential home run.
The Kerry Carpenter Bomb (Detroit Tigers)
Key Stats:
- Over 0.5 HR hit rate (last 5 games): 40%
- Over 0.5 HR hit rate (last 10 games): 50%
- Over 0.5 HR hit rate vs. White Sox (2025): 42.86% (3 HRs in 7 PAs).
Betting Opportunity: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +310 odds
- Fanduel
Matchup: Carpenter will be up against right-handed pitcher Elvis Peguero of the Chicago White Sox.
Why He's a Threat: Kerry Carpenter has been showing consistent power lately. He has hit the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last 5 games and 50% of his last 10 games. He also boasts a solid history against the White Sox, hitting the over in 42.86% of his matchups against them in 2025. While Rate Field is slightly pitcher-friendly for home runs (HR factor 97), Carpenter's recent form and his historical success against this opponent make him a strong candidate to go deep. News reports have also noted his "real pop" at the plate.
The Corbin Carroll Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Key Stats:
- Over 0.5 HR hit rate (last 5 games): 60%
- Season Home Runs: 21
Betting Opportunity: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +350 odds
- ESPN BET
Matchup: Carroll is slated to face right-handed pitcher Nathan Eovaldi of the Texas Rangers.
Why He's a Threat: Corbin Carroll is coming into this game hot. He hit a home run just yesterday. He has been consistently hitting the over on his home run prop, doing so in 60% of his last 5 games. Globe Life Field, where the Diamondbacks will play, is slightly batter-friendly for home runs with a park factor of 104. While he hasn't hit a home run in his 11 career plate appearances against Eovaldi, his current red-hot form and the favorable park environment make him a strong consideration to connect for a long ball.
Today’s Long Shot HR Hitters!
The Joey Ortiz Bomb (Milwaukee Brewers)
Key Stats:
- Career vs. Andrew Heaney: 3 HRs in 5 PAs.
- Over 0.5 HR hit rate vs. Pirates (2025): 28.57% (2 HRs in 7 PAs).
Betting Opportunity: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +625 odds
- BetMGM
Matchup: Ortiz is set to face left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Why He's a Threat: This is a truly remarkable matchup! Joey Ortiz has absolutely dominated Andrew Heaney in their limited history, crushing 3 home runs in just 5 career plate appearances against him. While Ortiz's overall home run rate hasn't been high recently (0% over his last 15 games), this specific head-to-head history is an undeniable outlier and a massive advantage. The news narrative also highlights this, calling it a "bizarre but undeniable BvP history" and a "sneaky upside play." American Family Field, where the game is being played, also has a slightly batter-friendly home run park factor of 105.
The JJ Bleday Bomb (Oakland Athletics)
Matchup Advantage: Bleday faces Ryan Pepiot of the Tampa Bay Rays today. In their career matchups, Bleday has already taken Pepiot deep, hitting one home run in 9 plate appearances. This direct historical success against the opposing pitcher is a strong indicator of his potential to go yard again. He boasts an impressive .286 batting average and a 1.000 slugging percentage against Pepiot.
Recent Performance: Although the detailed player prop data for home runs wasn't available, recent news highlights Bleday's strong offensive contributions. He recently posted a game score of 79 in a 16-7 win over the Nationals, indicating he's seeing the ball well and making impactful contact.
Park Factors: Unfortunately, specific park factor data for Sutter Health Park, where the Athletics play, was not available in my research.
The Josh Bell Bomb (Washington Nationals)
Betting Recommendation:
- Prop: Josh Bell Over 0.5 Home Runs
- Line: 0.5
- Odds: +600
- Book: BetRivers
Matchup Advantage: Bell is set to face Bailey Falter of the Kansas City Royals. This is a matchup where Bell has historically thrived. In 12 career plate appearances against Falter, Bell has crushed two home runs, along with a .556 batting average and a staggering 1.333 slugging percentage. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) in this matchup is an impressive 1.041, indicating that his strong performance against Falter is backed by quality contact.
Recent Trends: Looking at his recent home run production, Bell has hit the over on his home run prop in 20% of his last 5 games and 10% of his last 10 games. While his overall season hit rate for home runs is 14%, his head-to-head numbers against Falter are significantly more compelling.
Park Factors: The game is being played at Kauffman Stadium, which has a home run park factor of 83. This suggests it's a slightly pitcher-friendly park for home runs, meaning it suppresses home run production compared to the league average. However, Bell's dominant historical performance against Falter could potentially overcome this park factor.
The William Contreras Bomb (Milwaukee Brewers)
Betting Recommendation:
- Prop: William Contreras Over 0.5 Home Runs
- Line: 0.5
- Odds: +400
- Book: ESPN BET
Recent Power Surge: Contreras had an outstanding game on Sunday, hitting two home runs as part of a three-for-four performance. This recent power surge is a significant factor, as the news indicates he "may be returning to form" after seeing his power drop earlier in the season. Eight of his last fifteen hits have gone for extra bases, reinforcing this trend.
Matchup Insights: Contreras faces Andrew Heaney of the Pittsburgh Pirates today. In their career matchups, Contreras has hit well against Heaney, with a .500 batting average and .833 slugging percentage in 7 plate appearances. While he hasn't hit a home run against Heaney in these limited encounters, his high expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of 1.048 suggests he's making very hard contact that could translate into a long ball.
Park Factors: The game is at American Family Field, which has a home run park factor of 105. This indicates it's slightly more favorable for home runs than the average MLB park, which could benefit Contreras.
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