Today’s Top Homerun Props: MLB Best Bets 7/22/25
- Lee Shipley
- 3 days ago
- 6 min read
Alright everyone, it's a new day and we're looking to keep the hot streak alive! Yesterday was a fantastic one, with a bunch of our picks cashing, and we're ready to do it again. I've been diving deep into today's MLB matchups, looking at everything from batter-pitcher showdowns to recent trends and those crucial ballpark quirks, all to find you the best home run opportunities. And remember, all this data is powered by Pine Sports AI, with help from JaXon you can hit high value bets at a incredible rate! Here are my top five sluggers who are looking to send one over the fence today!
Today's Top Home Run Props!
The Giancarlo Stanton Bomb (New York Yankees)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +255
Book Link: DraftKings
Matchup & Park Factor: Stanton faces Max Scherzer and the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre, a park with a home run factor of 103, indicating it's slightly batter-friendly. This is a highly anticipated matchup given their history.
Recent Performance: Stanton has hit the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last 5 games and 40% of his last 10 games, showing consistent power. His season over hit rate is 20%.
Vs. Opponent History: Stanton has a remarkable track record against Max Scherzer, with 4 home runs in 28 career plate appearances. He has also shown success against the Blue Jays, hitting 2 home runs in 5 plate appearances against them in 2025 and 3 home runs in 7 plate appearances in 2024.
The Shohei Ohtani Bomb
(Los Angeles Dodgers)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +186
Book Link: Fanduel
Matchup & Park Factor: Ohtani is playing at Dodger Stadium, which boasts the highest home run park factor on today's slate at 128, making it exceptionally batter-friendly for long balls. While he hasn't faced today's Twins pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, in his career, Ohtani's raw power and the favorable park conditions are a potent combination.
Recent Performance: Ohtani has been in excellent form, hitting the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last 5 games and 50% of his last 10 games. His season-long over hit rate stands at a strong 31.63%.
Vs. Opponent History: He has a perfect 100% over hit rate against the Minnesota Twins in 2025, having already launched a home run in his single plate appearance against them this season.
The Kyle Schwarber Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +240
Book Link: ESPN Bet
Matchup & Park Factor: Schwarber is playing at Citizens Bank Park, which is a very hitter-friendly venue with a home run park factor of 113. This park is known for its propensity to yield long balls, especially to left-handed power hitters like Schwarber.
Recent Performance: Schwarber has hit the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last 5 games and 50% of his last 10 games. His season-long over hit rate is 31.0%, showcasing his consistent power threat.
Vs. Opponent History: While he hasn't homered against the Red Sox in 2025, he did hit a home run in 3 plate appearances against them in 2024. The favorable park factor and his overall power profile make him a strong candidate.
The Salvador Perez Bomb (Kansas City Royals)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +420
Book Link: BetRivers
Matchup & Park Factor: Perez and the Royals are at Wrigley Field, which has a home run park factor of 97, making it slightly pitcher-friendly. However, Perez's recent power surge and historical success against the Cubs outweigh this factor.
Recent Performance: Perez has been crushing the ball lately, hitting the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last 5 games and 50% of his last 10 games. His season over hit rate is 14.58%, but his recent form is much stronger.
Vs. Opponent History: He has an impressive 100% over hit rate against the Chicago Cubs in 2025, having hit a home run in his only plate appearance against them this season. Additionally, he has hit 2 home runs in 51 career plate appearances against today's Cubs pitcher, Matthew Boyd.
Today’s Top Long Shot Bets!
Jackson Merrill
(San Diego Padres)
Prop: Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Home Run
Odds: +525
Book: BetRivers
Jackson Merrill's home run statistics suggest a very low probability for hitting one today, making this a considerable long shot.
Recent Performance: Merrill has hit the over on home runs in 20% of his last five games, but only 10% in his last 10 games, and a mere 5% in his last 20 games.
Season Average: His season average for home runs is 0.1 per game, with an 8.96% hit rate on the over.
Vs. Opponent (Miami Marlins): Against the Marlins in 2025, he has averaged 0.25 home runs in 4 appearances, hitting the over in 25% of those games.
While he has shown a slight uptick against the Marlins this season, his overall and recent trends point to a very low likelihood of a home run but I love the value here!
Christian Yelich
(Milwaukee Brewers)
Prop: Christian Yelich Over 0.5 Home Run
Odds: +520
Book: Fanduel
Christian Yelich's home run numbers have been modest recently, making an over bet on home runs a significant long shot.
Recent Performance: He has not hit a home run in his last five games (0% hit rate) and has only hit the over in 20% of his last 10 and 20 games.
Season Average: Yelich averages 0.2 home runs per game this season, hitting the over on home runs in 18.09% of his games.
Vs. Opponent (Seattle Mariners): In his single appearance against the Mariners in 2025, he did not hit a home run. In 2024, he hit one home run in two games against them.
Given his current form and season averages, betting on Yelich to hit a home run today is a true underdog play, that’s why he is reflected in the “Long Shot” section of today’s article!
Miguel Vargas
(Chicago White Sox)
Prop: Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +650
Book: DraftKings
Miguel Vargas presents an interesting case, with a recent surge in home run production despite lower season averages, this is easily my favorite “Long Shot” Pick Today!
Recent Performance: Vargas has hit the over on home runs in 40% of his last five games. However, this drops to 20% over his last 10 games and 10% over his last 20 games.
Season Average: His season average is 0.12 home runs per game, with an 11.34% hit rate on the over.
Vs. Opponent (Tampa Bay Rays): Notably, in his single appearance against the Tampa Bay Rays in 2025, he hit a home run, giving him a 100% hit rate against them this season.
While his overall season and longer-term trends are low, the recent performance and the strong showing in his only 2025 matchup against the Rays could make him an intriguing long-shot play and one of my favorite bets in this article!
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
(New York Yankees)
Prop: Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +475
Book: BetRivers
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is known for his power, but the data suggests hitting a home run today might be a tough ask based on recent trends.
Recent Performance: He has not hit a home run in his last five games (0% hit rate). Over his last 10 games, he's hit the over on home runs in 10% of contests, and 30% over his last 20 games.
Season Average: For the season, Chisholm Jr. has hit the over on home runs in 21.74% of his games, averaging 0.25 home runs per game.
Vs. Opponent (Toronto Blue Jays): Against the Blue Jays in 2025, he has averaged 0.12 home runs in 8 appearances, hitting the over in 12.5% of those games.
While the odds are enticing for a power hitter like Chisholm Jr., his recent and season-long home run rates indicate this is a high-risk, high-reward proposition.
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