Today’s Top Homerun Props: MLB Best Bets 7/25/25
- Lee Shipley
- Jul 25
- 5 min read
Welcome or Welcome Back! Just glad your here! These articles have been on fire the last week! I've been diving deep into today's MLB games, looking for the best home run props out there. I've taken into account everything from how players have been performing lately to specific batter-pitcher matchups and even how friendly the ballparks are. All of this insight, by the way, is powered by Pine Sports' amazing AI, JaXon. So, ready to see my top picks for who's going to send one out of the park today?
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Jo Adell Bomb
(Los Angeles Angels)
Prop: Jo Adell Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +408
Book: Pinnacle
Jo Adell is set to face the Seattle Mariners at home. Adell has been showing some recent pop, hitting home runs in 40% of his last five games. His season home run hit rate stands at 19.15%. He has a solid track record against the Mariners, hitting a home run in 20% of his games against them this season (1 HR in 5 games) and 23.08% last season (3 HR in 13 games). Playing at home, Adell's home run hit rate is 20.45% this season. His recent form and consistent performance against Seattle make him a compelling option for a home run today.
The Shohei Ohtani Bomb
(Los Angeles Dodgers)
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox
Odds: +220 BetMGM
Analysis: Shohei Ohtani is in scorching hot form, hitting over his home run prop in 80% of his last five games, with a mean of 0.8 home runs per game during that span. Over his last 10 games, he's still hitting the over at a 60% clip. He recently launched his 34th home run of the season, showcasing his consistent power.
He faces Brayan Bello of the Red Sox today. In 8 career plate appearances against Bello, Ohtani has been highly effective, boasting a .500 batting average and a .625 slugging percentage. While Fenway Park has a slightly below-average home run factor (90), Ohtani's elite power and current hot streak make him a prime candidate to overcome any park limitations and send one out of the yard.
The Byron Buxton Bomb (Minnesota Twins)
Matchup: Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins
Odds: +360 BetMGM
Analysis:Byron Buxton has a strong track record against the Washington Nationals, averaging 0.67 home runs in 3 plate appearances against them in 2024. This indicates a favorable historical matchup for him. In his recent form, Buxton has hit over his home run prop in 40% of his last five and last ten games.
Today's game is at Target Field, which is a slightly home run-friendly park with a factor of 105. He will be facing Zebby Matthews, who has no prior career stats against the current Twins roster. While Matthews showed promise in a rehab start, his first major league start back in Coors Field was challenging. This combination of a favorable park, strong historical performance against the opponent, and an unfamiliar pitcher could set Buxton up for a big swing.
The Jazz Chisholm Jr. Bomb (New York Yankees)
Prop: Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +285
Book: Fanduel
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is playing at home against the Philadelphia Phillies. Chisholm has hit a home run in 20% of his last five games and 30% of his last twenty games, indicating a consistent power threat. His season home run hit rate is 22.86%. Against the Phillies last season, he hit home runs in 22.22% of his games (2 HR in 9 games). Notably, Chisholm performs well at home, with a 29.73% home run hit rate in his home games this season. His strong home performance and recent power numbers make him a solid choice for a home run prop.
Today’s Long Shot HR Hitters!
The George Springer Bomb (Toronto Blue Jays)
Prop: George Springer Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +508
Book: Pinnacle
George Springer takes on the Detroit Tigers today. His recent home run numbers show a 20% hit rate in his last five games and a 10% hit rate over his last ten. For the season, Springer has hit a home run in 14.74% of his games. While he hasn't hit a home run against the Tigers in their three matchups this season, he did show power against them last year, hitting two home runs in six games (33.33% hit rate). As a visitor, his home run hit rate is 13.33% this season. The high odds reflect the challenge, but Springer's historical power against this opponent could make him a long-shot play.
The Salvador Perez Bomb (Kansas City Royals)
Matchup: Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
Odds: +475 BetMGM
Analysis: Salvador Perez is a veteran power hitter who has shown recent pop, hitting over his home run prop in 60% of his last five games, with a mean of 0.8 home runs. News confirms he recently hit his 15th home run of the season, demonstrating his continued ability to drive the ball.
He faces Michael Wacha of the Guardians today. In 9 career plate appearances against Wacha, Perez has hit for a strong .444 batting average and a .444 slugging percentage. While he hasn't hit a home run against Wacha in their past encounters, his consistent contact and slugging against him are encouraging. The primary challenge for Perez will be Kauffman Stadium, which has a home run park factor of 82, making it less favorable for long balls. However, given his recent form and appealing odds, Perez offers a high-value underdog pick for a home run.
The Corbin Carroll Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Prop: Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +285
Book: Fanduel
Corbin Carroll is looking to make an impact today against the Pittsburgh Pirates. While his recent home run production has been quiet, with a 0% hit rate in his last five games and only one home run in his last ten, his season average for hitting a home run stands at 20%. What's particularly interesting is his performance against the Pirates this season, where he has hit a home run in 33.33% of his matchups (1 HR in 3 games), which is notably higher than his overall season rate. Playing on the road, he has a 22.5% hit rate for home runs this season. Given his higher success rate against today's opponent, Carroll presents an intriguing underdog opportunity.
