Today’s Top Homerun Props: MLB Best Bets for 7/21/25
- Lee Shipley
- 4 days ago
- 7 min read
What's up, baseball fans? I've been digging deep into today's MLB games, searching for the best home run opportunities. We're looking at powerful batters facing pitchers who give up a lot of hard contact, all while keeping an eye on the weather to see if it gives the ball an extra lift.
Our data is powered by Pine Sports AI JaXon, a leader in sports betting AI research and analytics. We've also included our best "long shot" home run bets, hand-picked by the experts at The Outlet Sports Ventures, who are dedicated to finding the most logical and high-value bets every day. Let's take our swings and get paid!
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Eugenio Suárez Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +300
Book: Fanduel
Eugenio Suárez is set to face the Houston Astros, and he shows some promising signs for a home run today.
Recent Form: Suárez has been showing some pop lately, hitting the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last 5 games, with an average of 1.2 home runs during that span. While his season-long over hit percentage is 27.55%, his recent performance indicates an uptick in power.
Vs. Opponent: Historically, Suárez has performed well against the Houston Astros, hitting the over on his home run prop in 66.67% of his 3 matchups against them in 2024, averaging 0.67 home runs per game. This suggests he finds success against this particular opponent.
Home Advantage: Playing at home in 2025, Suárez has hit the over on his home run prop in 33.33% of his games, averaging 0.45 home runs.
Recommendation: Given his recent power surge and strong historical performance against the Astros, Eugenio Suárez presents an intriguing option for a home run today.
The Aaron Judge Bomb
(New York Yankees)
Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+200) BetRivers
Matchup Analysis: Aaron Judge faces Kevin Gausman of the Toronto Blue Jays, a pitcher he has historically dominated. Judge has hit an impressive 6 home runs in 55 plate appearances against Gausman, with a high average exit velocity of 99.9 MPH. Gausman has also allowed 10 home runs to the current Yankees roster in his career.
Recent Performance: Judge has been consistently hitting the long ball, clearing this line in 40% of his last 5, 10, and 15 games. His season hit rate for home runs stands at 30.3%.
Park Factor: Rogers Centre, where the game is played, has a home run park factor of 103, indicating it's slightly more favorable for home runs than the average MLB park.
Recommendation: Given Judge's exceptional historical success against Gausman and the favorable park conditions, I'm confident in him hitting a home run today.
The Shohei Ohtani Bomb
(Los Angeles Dodgers)
Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+165) ESPN Bet
Matchup Analysis: Shohei Ohtani will be playing at Dodger Stadium, which is known for being extremely conducive to home runs, with a park factor of 129. While there's no direct historical data against today's starting pitcher, David Festa, Ohtani's sheer power and the favorable park conditions make this a compelling pick. News also highlights Ohtani's continued strong performance.
Recent Performance: Ohtani has consistently shown his home run power, hitting the over in 40% of his last 5 and 10 games, and 35% over his last 20 games. His season home run hit rate is 30.93%.
Park Factor: Dodger Stadium's high home run park factor is a significant advantage for a slugger of Ohtani's caliber.
Recommendation: Even without direct pitcher-batter history, Ohtani's elite power combined with the very hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium makes this a strong home run prop.
The Kyle Schwarber Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)
Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+275) ESPN Bet
Matchup Analysis: Kyle Schwarber, a potent left-handed slugger, is set to face Walker Buehler of the Boston Red Sox. Schwarber has already taken Buehler deep once in their 9 career plate appearances, with an exit velocity of 98.1 MPH. News reports indicate that Buehler's velocity is down, and his fastball is getting hit hard, especially by left-handed batters like Schwarber.
Recent Performance: Schwarber has been in good home run form, hitting the over in 40% of his last 5 games and 50% of his last 10 games. His season home run hit rate is 31.31%.
Park Factor: Citizens Bank Park is a very hitter-friendly venue, boasting a home run park factor of 113, which significantly boosts the chances of balls leaving the yard.
Recommendation: With Buehler's recent struggles against lefties and the highly favorable park environment, Schwarber is in an excellent position to hit a home run.
The Nick Kurtz Bomb (Oakland? Athletics)
Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+350) DraftKings
Matchup Analysis: Nick Kurtz and the Athletics face Jack Leiter of the Texas Rangers. Leiter has shown vulnerability to home runs against the current Athletics roster, allowing 2 home runs in just 20 plate appearances, with high expected slugging (0.865) and expected wOBA (0.572) against them.
Recent Performance: Kurtz has been hitting home runs at a good clip recently, with a 40% hit rate over his last 5, 15, and 20 games, and 50% over his last 10. His season hit rate is 27.87%.
Park Factor: Globe Life Field, the venue for this game, has a home run park factor of 106, indicating it's a batter-friendly environment for long balls.
Recommendation: Kurtz's recent power, combined with Leiter's susceptibility to home runs and a favorable park, makes this an attractive pick.
Today’s Top Long Shots!
The Willson Contreras Bomb
(St. Louis Cardinals)
Line: Over 1.5 Home Runs
Odds: +2200
Book: Fanduel
Willson Contreras and the St. Louis Cardinals are heading to Colorado to take on the Rockies, a park often favorable for hitters and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Contreras send TWO Bombs today.
Recent Form: Contreras has struggled to hit home runs recently, not hitting the over on his home run prop in any of his last 5 games. He's hit the over in only 10% of his last 10 games, averaging 0.1 home runs. His season-long over hit percentage is 12.37%.
Visitor Performance: When playing on the road in 2025, Contreras has hit the over on his home run prop in 11.54% of his games, averaging 0.12 home runs.
Recommendation: While playing in Colorado can boost offensive numbers, Contreras's recent home run production has been very low. The odds are long, indicating a significant long shot regardless if we take only a single homerun, so I’m going for two homers at huge odds!
The Tyler Soderstrom Bomb (Oakland Athletics)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +450
Book: DraftKings
Tyler Soderstrom and the Oakland Athletics are facing the Texas Rangers tonight. While his overall home run numbers aren't eye-popping, there's always a chance for a long ball.
Recent Form: Soderstrom has hit the over on his home run prop in 20% of his last 5 games, and 40% of his last 10 games, averaging 0.2 and 0.4 home runs respectively. His season-long over hit percentage stands at 14%.
Vs. Opponent: In 2025, Soderstrom has not hit a home run in 7 matchups against the Texas Rangers. However, in 2024, he hit the over in 25% of his 4 games against them, averaging 0.25 home runs.
Visitor Performance: When playing on the road in 2025, Soderstrom has hit the over on his home run prop in 16% of his games, averaging 0.2 home runs.
Recommendation: Tyler Soderstrom is a long shot for a home run today based on recent trends and opponent matchups, but the high odds reflect that. This would be a high-risk, high-reward play.
The Salvador Perez Bomb
(Kansas City Royals)
Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+550) ESPN Bet
Matchup Analysis: Salvador Perez and the Royals are playing at Wrigley Field, where the weather forecast is a significant factor. News reports explicitly state that the "wind is blowing out toward the bleachers," which is a major boost for home run potential, often overriding the park's general home run factor (97). While Perez has limited historical data against Ryan Brasier, the wind conditions are paramount here.
Recent Performance: Perez has hit the over in 40% of his last 5 games and 50% of his last 10 games. His season home run hit rate is 13.68%.
Weather Factor: The strong wind blowing out at Wrigley Field creates an ideal environment for home runs, making this a high-upside play.
Recommendation: The wind conditions at Wrigley Field are the primary driver for this pick, providing a significant advantage for a power hitter like Perez.
The Masyn Winn Bomb
(St. Louis Cardinals)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +500
Book: DraftKings
Masyn Winn, also with the Cardinals, will be playing in the hitter-friendly environment of Colorado.
Recent Form: Winn has not hit the over on his home run prop in any of his last 5, 10, 15, or 20 games. His season-long over hit percentage is 7.69%, averaging 0.1 home runs.
Vs. Opponent: In 2024, Winn hit the over on his home run prop in 16.67% of his 6 matchups against the Colorado Rockies, averaging 0.17 home runs.
Visitor Performance: When playing on the road in 2025, Winn has hit the over on his home run prop in 10.64% of his games, averaging 0.15 home runs.
Recommendation: Masyn Winn is a considerable long shot for a home run today, as his recent and season-long home run numbers are very low. The high odds reflect the low probability, making this a speculative bet.
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