Maximize Your Profits with Today's Top Home Run Prop Bets!
- Lee Shipley
- Aug 1
- 3 min read
Updated: Aug 11
Looking for some home run prop bets today? You've come to the right place. It’s a beautiful day for some long balls in parks all around the country! In today’s article, I've got my top picks for today's MLB action, backed by a thorough breakdown of player performance, historical matchups, and even park factors. All the data and research is powered by Pine Sports AI JaXon, the industry leader in sports betting AI research and analytics. Now let’s take our shots and bring home a bag!
Today’s Top Home Run Hitters!
The Hunter Goodman Bomb (Colorado Rockies)
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +300
Book: DraftKings
📊 Analysis: Hunter Goodman is facing the Pittsburgh Pirates at home in Colorado, a park known for being hitter-friendly. He has hit a home run in 20% of his last 5, 10, 15, and 20 games, showing consistent power. More notably, in his two games against the Pirates in 2024, he hit 1 home run, giving him a 50% hit rate against this opponent. This combination of recent form and strong historical performance against the Pirates makes him a compelling pick.
The Cal Raleigh Bomb (Seattle Mariners)
Game: Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Time: 10:10 PM ET
Odds: +255 DraftKings
📊 Analysis: Cal Raleigh, despite a brief home run lull, remains a premier power hitter, leading the majors with 41 home runs this season. He has shown a strong ability to go deep against the Texas Rangers, hitting the over in 50% of his 10 matchups against them in 2025, averaging 0.6 home runs per game. Furthermore, Raleigh has an excellent head-to-head record against today's starting pitcher, Jack Leiter, having hit 2 home runs in just 10 career plate appearances. While T-Mobile Park has a slightly pitcher-friendly HR factor of 90, Raleigh's consistent power and proven success against Leiter make this a compelling pick.
The Shohei Ohtani Bomb (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays
Time: 7:35 PM ET
Odds: +215 BetRivers
📊 Analysis: Shohei Ohtani consistently displays elite power, hitting the over in 32.08% of his games this season. His historical performance against the Tampa Bay Rays is particularly noteworthy, as he hit the over in 66.67% of his 3 matchups against them in 2024, averaging 0.67 home runs per game. While his hit rate in the last five games is lower, his performance over the last 10 games (50% over) and his strong historical showing against the Rays indicate a high potential for a long ball today.
Today’s Long Shot Hitters!
The Tyler O'Neill Bomb (Baltimore Orioles)
Game: Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs
Time: 2:20 PM ET
Odds: +560 Fanduel
📊 Analysis: Tyler O'Neill is currently in excellent form, hitting the over in 60% of his last five games. He also boasts an impressive historical record against the Chicago Cubs, hitting the over in 66.67% of his three matchups against them in 2024, averaging 0.67 home runs per game. Despite Wrigley Field's slightly pitcher-friendly HR factor of 98 and a lower season-long hit rate, his recent hot streak and strong performance against this specific opponent provide a compelling case for a home run today.
The Corey Seager Bomb (Texas Rangers)
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +380
Book: BetRivers
📊 Analysis: Corey Seager is playing against the Seattle Mariners today. While his recent overall home run numbers aren't eye-popping (0 HRs in his last 5 games, 20% over in his last 10 games), his performance against the Mariners this season stands out. He has hit 3 home runs in 9 games against them in 2025, giving him a 33.33% hit rate against this specific opponent. This head-to-head success is a strong indicator.
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