Today’s Top Homerun Props: MLB Best Bets for 8/6/25
- Lee Shipley
- Aug 6
- 4 min read
Let's get right into today's MLB games! We're on the hunt for some great home run props, looking for powerful hitters with good matchups, especially in ballparks where long balls are more likely. Everything we'll discuss is backed by Pine Sports AI's JaXon, the leader in AI sports betting analytics and research.
Today’s Top Home run Hitters!
The Nolan Gorman Bomb
(St. Louis Cardinals)
Nolan Gorman (St. Louis Cardinals) - Over 0.5 Home Runs
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +550 BetMGM
Analysis: Nolan Gorman presents an intriguing opportunity against Shohei Ohtani. In their career head-to-head, Gorman has crushed Ohtani, hitting 0.667 with a massive 1.667 slugging percentage and a home run in just three plate appearances. This is an exceptionally strong individual matchup. The game is at Dodger Stadium, which has the highest HR Park Factor (129) among all parks in today's research, indicating a very favorable environment for home runs. While Gorman's recent overall home run rate is 40% over his last five games, his specific success against Ohtani and the highly conducive park environment make this a high-upside play.
The Giancarlo Stanton Bomb (New York Yankees)
Giancarlo Stanton (New York Yankees) - Over 0.5 Home Runs
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +400 ESPN Bet
Analysis: Giancarlo Stanton is always a threat to hit a home run, and today's matchup offers some compelling factors. The Yankees are playing at Globe Life Field, which has a favorable HR Park Factor of 105, suggesting a good environment for power. While Stanton's direct career numbers against today's starting pitcher, Jack Leiter, are limited and don't show a home run in two plate appearances, Leiter's expected slugging (xSLG) and expected wOBA (xwOBA) against the Yankees roster are higher than his actual numbers, hinting at potential regression. More importantly, Stanton has a strong historical performance against the Texas Rangers, hitting 0.67 home runs per game in six matchups in 2024. Given Stanton's immense power and the hitter-friendly park, this pick has solid potential.
The Hunter Goodman Bomb (Colorado Rockies)
Hunter Goodman (Colorado Rockies) - Over 0.5 Home Runs
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +300 FanDuel
Analysis: Hunter Goodman is in an excellent spot to go deep today. He faces Kevin Gausman, a right-handed pitcher against whom Goodman has a perfect 1.000 batting average and an incredible 2.000 slugging percentage in their limited career matchups, including a home run. This indicates a highly favorable individual matchup. Furthermore, the game is being played at Coors Field, which boasts the highest HR Park Factor (105) among all venues today, making it a hitter's paradise. Goodman has also shown recent power, hitting the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last five games. The combination of a strong individual history against the pitcher and the most hitter-friendly park on the slate makes this a compelling pick.
Today's Long Shot HR Hitters!
The Ozzie Albies Bomb (Atlanta Braves)
Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves
Game Time: 7:15 PM ET
Prop: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +800 on ESPN BET
Analysis: Ozzie Albies has a compelling historical matchup against Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Jose Quintana. In 17 plate appearances against Quintana, Albies has been exceptional, hitting 3 home runs with a .500 batting average and a massive 1.188 slugging percentage. While Albies hasn't hit a home run in his last 20 games, his season average is 0.08 home runs per game, hitting the over in 8.04% of his games this season. The game is at Truist Park, which has a neutral park factor for home runs (102), meaning it's slightly above average for HRs. Given his strong historical performance against Quintana, this is an intriguing underdog pick.
The Heliot Ramos Bomb
(San Francisco Giants)
Matchup: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Game Time: 12:35 PM ET
Prop: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +500 on Fanduel
Heliot Ramos faces Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Andrew Heaney, a matchup where Ramos has historically excelled. In 5 plate appearances against Heaney, Ramos has recorded 1 home run, along with a .500 batting average and an impressive 1.500 slugging percentage. While Ramos hasn't hit a home run in his last 20 games, and his season average is 0.12 home runs per game (hitting the over in 12.5% of games), his past success against Heaney stands out. The game is at PNC Park, which is a pitcher-friendly park, especially for home runs (HR park factor of 76). Despite the park factor, Ramos's strong individual history against Heaney makes this a noteworthy longshot.
The Dansby Swanson Bomb (Chicago Cubs)
Matchup: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Game Time: 2:20 PM ET
Prop: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +650 on DraftKings
Dansby Swanson has a favorable historical matchup against Cincinnati Reds pitcher Andrew Abbott. In 13 plate appearances against Abbott, Swanson has hit 1 home run, boasting a .333 batting average and a .889 slugging percentage. Swanson has hit a home run in 20% of his last 5 games and 15.45% of his games this season, with a season average of 0.15 home runs per game. The game is at Wrigley Field, which has a slightly pitcher-friendly park factor for home runs (97). Despite the park factor, Swanson's past performance against Abbott provides a solid foundation for this home run prop.
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