Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 5/19/25

Ready to dive into some dingers? We've got the lowdown on your home run prop bets for Jake Bauers, Matt Chapman, and Brent Rooker. Get ready for the full scoop, including the latest odds, key stats you need to know, and our expert analysis. Plus, we've even dropped in direct betting links to make it super easy to get in on the action!

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The Jake Bauers Bomb

(Milwaukee Brewers)

• Matchup: Baltimore Orioles @ Milwaukee Brewers

• Best Over Line: 0.5 Home Runs

• Odds: +525

• Book: BetMGM

Statistical Analysis:

• Recent Performance: Bauers has hit a home run in 10% of his last 20 games, with a season average of 0.1 home runs per game.

• Opponent-Specific: Against the Orioles in 2024, Bauers hit a home run in 1 of 1 game (100%).

• Home Performance: At home in 2025, Bauers has a 10% hit rate for home runs.

Recommendation:

While Bauers has a low season average, his success against the Orioles last year (100% in one game) and the high odds (+525) make this a high-risk, high-reward bet. Consider this if you're looking for a longshot play.

The Matt Chapman Bomb

(SF Giants)

• Matchup: Kansas City Royals @ San Francisco Giants

• Best Over Line: 0.5 Home Runs

• Odds: +450

• Book: FanDuel

Statistical Analysis:

• Recent Performance: Chapman has hit a home run in 20% of his last 15 games, with a season average of 0.17 home runs per game.

• Opponent-Specific: Against the Royals in 2024, Chapman hit a home run in 1 of 2 games (50%).

• Home Performance: At home in 2025, Chapman has a 17.39% hit rate for home runs.

Recommendation:

Chapman’s recent form and his 50% success rate against the Royals last year make this a reasonable value bet at +450 odds. He’s a solid option for bettors seeking moderate risk with decent upside.

The Brent Rooker Bomb

(SAC Athletics)

• Line: 0.5 home runs.

• Over Odds: +450 at BetMGM.

• Under Odds: -625 at BetMGM.

Season Performance:

• Season Average: 0.21 home runs per game.

• Season Hit Rate: 21.28% (10/47 games).

Performance vs. Angels (2024)

• Hit Rate: 46.15% (6/13 games).

• Average Home Runs per Game: 0.46.

Performance as a Visitor (2025)

• Hit Rate: 19.05% (4/21 games).

• Average Home Runs per Game: 0.19.

Recommendation:

The Over 0.5 Home Runs (+450) at BetMGM offers strong value given the odds and matchup context. While the hit rate trends suggest caution, the combination of Rooker’s power, Soriano’s vulnerability to right-handed hitters, and the hitter-friendly conditions at Sutter Health Park make this a high-upside play.

The Personal Preferences!

1. Shea Langeliers +475

2. Rhys Hoskins +525

3. Kyle Stowers +425

4. Hunter Goodman +600

5. Danny Jansen +380