Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 5/31/25

Welcome Back to another day of DINGERZ with The Outlet SV! Here are my top recommendations for today's MLB home run hitters! I've dug into all the data, looking for guys with awesome slugging rates, sweet matchups against pitchers who give up a lot of hard contact, and even checking out the weather and ballparks. Everything you see here is backed up by the smart folks at Pine Sports AI, so let's dive in!

The Cal Raleigh Bomb (Seattle Mariners)

• Matchup: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners

• Key Stats:

  • Last 5 Games: 40% hit rate for home runs, averaging 0.8 HR per game.

  • Vs. Twins (2025): Homered in his only game against them this season.

  • Season Total: 17 home runs with a 30.36% hit rate.

• Pitcher Matchup: Twins’ pitching staff has been vulnerable to power hitters.

• Betting Recommendation:

  • Over 0.5 Home Runs (+280) at FanDuel.

The Austin Wells Bomb

(NY Yankees)

• Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Dodgers

• Odds for Over 0.5 Home Runs: +400 (BetRivers)

• Recent Performance:

  • Wells has hit 9 home runs in 47 games this season, averaging 0.19 home runs per game.

  • He has a 20% hit rate for home runs over his last 5 games and a 10% hit rate over his last 10 games.

  • Against the Dodgers in 2025, Wells has hit 1 home run in 1 game, giving him a 100% hit rate in this matchup.

• Recommendation: Wells' recent performance against the Dodgers and his power potential make this a solid pick, especially at +400 odds.

The Manny Machado Bomb (SD Padres)

• Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres

• Odds for Over 0.5 Home Runs: +330 (FanDuel)

• Recent Performance:

  • Machado has hit 6 home runs in 55 games this season, averaging 0.11 home runs per game.

  • Over his last 5 games, he has a 40% hit rate for home runs.

  • Against the Pirates in 2025, Machado has hit 1 home run in 4 games, giving him a 25% hit rate in this matchup.

• Recommendation: Machado's odds of +330 provide decent value, but his overall home run rate this season suggests this is a moderate-risk option.

The Honorable Mentions:

James Wood (Nationals)

• Odds: +480 at BetRivers.

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)