Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 7/19/25
- Lee Shipley
- Jul 19
- 3 min read
Let's get right into it! I've been poring over today's MLB slate to bring you the best home run picks. We're looking for guys who are absolutely on fire, have a great matchup on the mound, and are playing in a ballpark where the long ball loves to fly. This isn't just a shot in the dark, either. All of this data is powered by Pine Sports AI JaXon and individually picked by the top experts right here at The Outlet Sports Ventures to give you the best bets each and every day! Here are my top five recommendations for today:
The Juan Soto Bomb
(New York Mets)
Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +350 ESPN Bet
Analysis: Juan Soto is coming into this game against the Cincinnati Reds with serious momentum, having launched a solo shot in Friday's return to action. He's hit the over on this line in 60% of his last five games and 40% of his last ten. For the season, he's cleared this line in 20.41% of his appearances, with 24 homers to his name. What makes this pick particularly compelling is his historical performance against today's starting pitcher, Nick Martinez. Soto has a perfect 1-for-1 record against Martinez with a home run, boasting an incredible 4.000 slugging percentage and 2.050 wOBA in that limited sample. Martinez also carries a 4.78 ERA and has shown vulnerability to left-handed bats. Playing at Citi Field, which has a park factor of 105 for home runs, further boosts Soto's chances of going yard.
The Mike Trout Bomb
(Los Angeles Angels)
Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +300 FanDuel
Analysis: Mike Trout appears to be dialing back into MVP form after the All-Star break. While his recent hit rate for home runs is 20% in his last five games and 30% in his last ten, his overall season hit rate is 19.72%. The real story here is his exceptional history against Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Taijuan Walker. Trout has absolutely dominated Walker in past meetings, going 11-for-19 (.579 average) with three home runs and an astounding 1.158 slugging percentage. Citizens Bank Park, with a home run park factor of 112, is also highly favorable for power hitters. With Trout's recent surge, slashing .364/.500/.864 with three home runs in his last six games, and his proven ability to crush Walker, this is a prime opportunity for him to add another long ball.
The Giancarlo Stanton Bomb (New York Yankees)
Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +335 BetRivers
Analysis: Giancarlo Stanton is locked in at the plate, batting .375 with three home runs in his last six games since returning from the All-Star break, boasting a 1.412 OPS. He's hit the over on this prop in 40% of his last five and ten games. Today, he faces lefty Joey Wentz of the Atlanta Braves, who enters with a 6.32 ERA and has a history of giving up dingers, especially to right-handed power. Stanton has a strong historical matchup against Wentz, with one home run in just two at-bats, resulting in a 2.000 slugging percentage. Truist Park, with a home run park factor of 102, also leans towards being hitter-friendly. Stanton's elite slugging and proven track record against southpaws make this a juicy spot for another home run swing.
The Manny Machado Bomb (San Diego Padres)
Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +340 DraftKings
Analysis: Manny Machado is red-hot, showing no signs of slowing down after the All-Star break. He's hit the over on this prop in 60% of his last five games and 40% of his last ten. In his last five games, Machado is hitting .350 with three home runs, including a grand slam in Friday’s 7-2 win over the Washington Nationals. He faces left-hander Mitchell Parker, who has a 5.12 ERA. Machado has a favorable historical matchup against Parker, with one home run in five at-bats, contributing to an .800 slugging percentage. With an OPS of 1.214 over this recent stretch and a history of punishing lefties, Machado has both the form and the opponent to deliver another long ball today.
Comments