Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 7/30/25
- Lee Shipley
- Jul 30
- 5 min read
Updated: Aug 8
Alright, let's get into some MLB home run calls for today, July 30th! I've really dived deep into the numbers, looking for batters who crush the ball against pitchers who tend to give up hard contact. Plus, I've even factored in how they've performed head-to-head over the past five seasons. All this awesome data is powered by Pine Sports AI JaXon, and then hand-selected by the MLB experts at Outlet Sports Ventures. So, you're getting the best of both worlds – cutting-edge technology and seasoned human insight – to give you the best picks each day!
Todays Top Homerun Hitters
The Tyler O'Neill Bomb (Baltimore Orioles)
Recommendation: Tyler O'Neill Over 0.5 Home Runs at +330 odds.
Matchup Analysis: Tyler O'Neill is set to face José Berríos, a pitcher who has shown vulnerability to the long ball against the current Orioles roster, allowing a .547 slugging percentage. This indicates a favorable environment for power hitters.
Historical Dominance: O'Neill has an exceptional track record against Berríos. In just 13 career plate appearances, he has collected 5 hits, including 2 home runs, resulting in a remarkable .917 slugging percentage. This head-to-head history strongly aligns with your criteria for batters with past success against opposing pitchers.
Recent Form & Park Factor: O'Neill is coming into this game red-hot, hitting the over on his home run prop in an impressive 80% of his last 5 games. Furthermore, Oriole Park at Camden Yards has a home run park factor of 107, slightly favoring home runs, which adds another layer of appeal to this pick.
The Anthony Volpe Bomb (New York Yankees)
Recommendation: Anthony Volpe Over 0.5 Home Runs at +600 odds.
Matchup Analysis: Anthony Volpe will be up against Zack Littell, who has allowed a high .561 slugging percentage to the current New York Yankees roster. This suggests Littell struggles to keep the ball in the park against these hitters.
Historical Edge: Volpe boasts an outstanding individual history against Littell. In 12 plate appearances, he has recorded 5 hits, including 2 home runs, leading to a perfect 1.000 slugging percentage. This direct historical success is a key indicator for this prop.
Park Factor: This game is being played at Yankee Stadium, which is renowned as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB, especially for home runs, with a park factor of 121. This significantly boosts the probability of a long ball.
The Salvador Perez Bomb (Kansas City Royals)
Recommendation: Salvador Perez Over 0.5 Home Runs at +390 odds.
Matchup Analysis: Salvador Perez faces Joey Wentz, a pitcher who has allowed a .467 slugging percentage to the current Kansas City Royals roster. While not as high as the previous pitchers, it still presents an opportunity for power.
Historical Performance: Perez has demonstrated significant power against Wentz in their past encounters. In 8 plate appearances, he has tallied 4 hits, including 1 home run and 1 double, resulting in an impressive 1.000 slugging percentage. This direct head-to-head success is a strong factor in his favor.
Park Factor Consideration: Kauffman Stadium has a home run park factor of 83, which is generally pitcher-friendly. However, Perez's dominant individual history against Wentz, including extra-base hits, suggests he can overcome the park's tendencies in this specific matchup.
The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Bomb (Toronto Blue Jays)
Recommendation:Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +340
Book: BetRivers
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore OriolesTime: 12:35 PM ET
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is another strong contender for a home run today, particularly due to his exceptional historical performance against Baltimore Orioles pitcher Dean Kremer. While his recent home run hit rates are around 20.0% over his last 10 games and 14.02% for the season, his past success against Kremer is a significant indicator.
In 33 plate appearances against Dean Kremer, Guerrero Jr. has crushed 11 hits, including 5 home runs. He boasts a stellar .355 batting average and a remarkable .903 slugging percentage in this matchup, with a .534 wOBA. This is an incredibly strong historical advantage. Oriole Park at Camden Yards also offers a favorable environment for home runs, with a park factor of 108 for HRs, making it slightly more conducive to long balls than the average stadium.
Today’s LongShot Hitters!
The Corey Seager Bomb (Texas Rangers)
Recommendation: Corey Seager Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +400
Book: ESPN BET
Matchup: Texas Rangers at Los Angeles AngelsTime: 9:38 PM ET
Corey Seager presents an intriguing home run opportunity today, especially considering his historical success against the Angels' projected starter, José Soriano. While his overall home run hit rate for the season is 17.33% (averaging 0.2 HRs per game), his performance against the Angels in 2025 has been notably better, hitting the over on his home run prop in 37.5% of his matchups, averaging 0.38 home runs.
The key factor here is his direct history against José Soriano. In 8 plate appearances, Seager has been dominant, recording 4 hits, including a crucial home run. He boasts an impressive .667 batting average and a 1.167 slugging percentage against Soriano, with a .761 wOBA. This indicates a highly favorable individual matchup. Angel Stadium also offers a slight boost to home runs with a park factor of 113 for HRs, making it a more hitter-friendly environment for long balls.
The Austin Wells Bomb
(New York Yankees)
Recommendation: Austin Wells Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +420
Book: Fanduel
Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays at New York YankeesTime: 7:05 PM ET
Austin Wells, playing at home in Yankee Stadium, is another strong candidate for a home run. While his season and recent five-game home run hit rates hover around 17.65% and 20.0% respectively, his performance against the Tampa Bay Rays in 2025 stands out, hitting the over in 33.33% of his games against them, averaging 0.33 home runs.
The most compelling data point is Wells's history against Rays pitcher Zack Littell. In 8 plate appearances, Wells has collected 4 hits, including 2 home runs, resulting in a .500 batting average and a massive 1.375 slugging percentage. His .780 wOBA against Littell highlights his ability to generate significant power in this specific matchup. Yankee Stadium is also known for being very conducive to home runs, with a park factor of 121 for HRs, further enhancing Wells's chances.
The Blake Perkins Bomb (Milwaukee Brewers)
Recommendation: Blake Perkins Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +800
Book: Fanduel
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee BrewersTime: 2:10 PM ET
Blake Perkins might seem like a long shot at first glance, given his 0.0% home run hit rate across his last 20 games and for the season. However, the individual matchup against Chicago Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga presents a unique and highly favorable opportunity.
In their limited history, Perkins has faced Imanaga twice and has recorded 2 hits, including an impressive home run. This translates to a perfect 1.000 batting average and an astounding 3.000 slugging percentage against Imanaga, with a 1.652 wOBA. While American Family Field is generally pitcher-friendly overall, it has a slightly above-average home run park factor of 105. The direct, albeit small, sample size against Imanaga is overwhelmingly positive and suggests a high probability of a long ball.
