Hit a Home Run with Today's MLB Betting Picks!
- Lee Shipley
- Aug 13
- 5 min read
Updated: Aug 23
Looking to hit a home run with your sports bets today? We're diving into the day's MLB matchups to find the players most likely to launch one out of the park. I've crunched the numbers on historical pitcher vs. batter data, player advantages, and even favorable park factors to give you some strong picks and direct betting links. All of this data and research is backed by Pine Sports AI, JaXon, so you can bet with confidence.
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Shohei Ohtani Bomb (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +150
Bet Slip: ESPN Bet
Analysis: Ohtani has an exceptional track record against Kyle Hendricks. He boasts a 1.400 slugging percentage and a home run in just 6 plate appearances. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of 1.048 and expected wOBA (xwOBA) of 0.635 against Hendricks are elite. This is supported by a strong average exit velocity of 91.7 MPH and an optimal launch angle of 22.8 degrees. Angel Stadium, with a home run park factor of 113, is very batter-friendly, further boosting his chances.
Recent Trends: Ohtani has been on a tear, hitting the over on his home run prop in 80% of his last 5 games and 50% of his last 10. Against the Angels specifically, he has hit the over in 60% of his 5 plate appearances this season and 50% in 4 plate appearances in 2024.
The Giancarlo Stanton Bomb (New York Yankees)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +300
Bet Slip: BetRivers
Analysis: Stanton has yet to hit a home run in 3 plate appearances against Joe Ryan. However, the overall matchup environment is incredibly favorable. Yankee Stadium is a notorious launching pad, boasting a very high home run park factor of 120. Stanton's high exit velocity of 97.4 MPH indicates his power potential.
Recent Trends: Stanton has consistently hit the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last 5, 10, 15, and 20 games. More impressively, he has a perfect 100% over hit rate against the Minnesota Twins in 2 plate appearances this season.
The Corbin Carroll Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +280
Bet Slip: Fanduel
Analysis: Globe Life Field offers a slight advantage for home runs with a park factor of 104. Carroll has a 50% over hit rate against the Texas Rangers in 2 plate appearances this season, indicating his ability to perform against this opponent.
Recent Trends: Carroll is in good form, hitting the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last 5 games and 50% of his last 10 games.
The Junior Caminero Bomb (Tampa Bay Rays)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +325
Bet Slip: ESPN Bet
Analysis: While specific park factor data for Sutter Health Park is not available, Caminero's recent performance and history against the Athletics are compelling. He has a 40% over hit rate against the Athletics in 5 plate appearances this season.
Recent Trends: Caminero has shown strong recent home run hitting, going over his prop in 60% of his last 5 games and 50% of his last 10 games.
Today’s Long Shot Hitters!
The Randy Arozarena Bomb (Seattle Mariners)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +460
Book: Fanduel
Mato faces the Baltimore Orioles today. This matchup presents an interesting scenario for a home run prop.
Matchup Insights: Arozarena has a strong historical performance against Orioles pitcher Trevor Rogers, a left-hander. In 6 plate appearances against Rogers, Arozarena has recorded 3 hits, including 2 home runs, boasting an impressive .500 batting average and a 1.500 slugging percentage. His wOBA against Rogers is .807, with an xwOBA of .630, indicating a very favorable historical matchup.
Park Factors: The game will be played at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, which has a home run park factor of 108 for 2023-2025. This means it's 8% more conducive to home runs than the average MLB park. This is a positive environmental factor for an over home run prop.
Recent & Season Performance: While the historical matchup is compelling, Arozarena's recent and season-long home run rates are lower. He has hit the over on his home run prop in 20.0% of his last 5, 10, and 15 games, and 25.0% of his last 20 games. His season over hit percentage for home runs is 18.64%. He has not hit a home run against the Orioles in 4 games this season or 7 games in 2024.
Recommendation: Given the highly favorable historical matchup against Trevor Rogers and the home run-friendly park, I recommend the Over 0.5 Home Runs for Randy Arozarena. While his overall recent and season home run rates are low, the specific pitcher matchup and park factors create a strong narrative for this underdog pick.
The Willson Contreras Bomb (St. Louis Cardinals)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +340
Bet Slip: BetRivers
Willson Contreras, playing for the St. Louis Cardinals against the Colorado Rockies today, presents an intriguing case for a home run prop.
Recent Performance: Contreras has not hit an over on his home run prop in his last 5, 10, 15, or 20 games. His season average for home runs is 0.14 per game, hitting the over on his prop line in 13.68% of his games this season. When playing at home, he's hit the over in 12.28% of his games.
Matchup Advantage: Despite his recent overall trend, the matchup against Rockies pitcher Austin Gomber is highly favorable. Contreras has a remarkable history against Gomber, with 3 home runs in just 8 at-bats. He boasts a .500 batting average and an incredible 1.625 slugging percentage against Gomber in their career matchups. This head-to-head performance is a significant factor to consider.
Park Factors: The game is being played at Busch Stadium, which has a neutral overall park factor (100) but is slightly less favorable for home runs (HR factor of 88).
Recommendation: Given the exceptional historical performance against Austin Gomber, I recommend the Over 0.5 Home Runs for Willson Contreras. The odds are quite appealing, reflecting the general season trends, but the specific pitcher-batter matchup offers a strong upside.
The Donovan Solano Bomb (Seattle Mariners)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +1200
Bet Slip: BetMGM
Donovan Solano, playing for the Seattle Mariners against the Baltimore Orioles, also has a compelling home run prop.
Recent Performance: Solano has not hit an over on his home run prop in his last 5, 10, 15, or 20 games. His season average for home runs is 0.05 per game, hitting the over on his prop line in 3.08% of his games this season. When playing on the road, he's hit the over in 5.41% of his games.
Matchup Advantage: Similar to Contreras, Solano has a strong historical matchup against Orioles pitcher Trevor Rogers. In 4 career at-bats against Rogers, Solano has recorded 1 home run, along with a .750 batting average and a 1.750 slugging percentage. This is a very small sample size, but the results are impactful.
Park Factors: The game is at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, which has a slightly batter-friendly overall park factor (101) and is more favorable for home runs (HR factor of 108).
Recommendation: While Solano's overall season and recent trends don't strongly support the over, his past performance against Trevor Rogers, combined with the favorable park factors at Camden Yards, makes the Over 0.5 Home Runs an interesting long-shot play.
Comments