Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 8/23/25
- Lee Shipley
- 6 hours ago
- 5 min read
We know that NFL and CFB take center stage today but we are coming into today building on yesterday's success with the DINGERZ article, we're ready to find today's MLB Bombs. Let's dive into the daily slate and pinpoint some of the best home run props by looking for batters who are hot and have favorable matchups. All data and research are provided by the Pine Sports AI, JaXon.
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters
The Vinnie Pasquantino Bomb (Kansas City Royals)
Vinnie Pasquantino (Kansas City Royals) - Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +425 ESPN BET
Analysis: Pasquantino has been on an absolute tear recently, hitting the over on his home run prop in 100% of his last five games and 70% of his last ten. While his season average is lower, his current form is undeniable. More importantly, he has a highly favorable individual matchup against Detroit Tigers pitcher Chris Paddack. In their limited encounters, Pasquantino has already hit a home run off Paddack this season, boasting an impressive 1.333 slugging percentage and a 0.683 wOBA in those plate appearances. Despite Comerica Park being slightly pitcher-friendly for home runs (HR factor 98), Pasquantino's recent power surge and his proven ability to hit against Paddack make this a compelling pick.
The Aaron Judge Bomb
(New York Yankees)
Aaron Judge (New York Yankees) - Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +235 BetRivers
Analysis: It's hard to ignore Aaron Judge when discussing home run props, especially when he's playing at Yankee Stadium, which boasts a very hitter-friendly park factor for home runs (HR factor 120). While his recent home run rate (20% over last 5, 30% over last 10) isn't his peak, Judge has a solid track record against Boston Red Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet, having hit a home run off him in nine career plate appearances. The Yankees' model also predicts a win for them today with 61.1% confidence, suggesting a strong offensive outing. Judge remains one of the most dangerous power hitters in baseball, and the favorable park conditions make him a prime candidate to go deep.
The Juan Soto Bomb
(New York Mets)
Juan Soto (New York Mets) - Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +350 ESPN BET
Analysis: Juan Soto, now with the New York Mets, faces the Atlanta Braves today at Truist Park, which has a slightly hitter-friendly home run park factor of 103. Soto has shown a strong ability to hit home runs against the Braves this season, hitting the over in 45.45% of his 2025 matchups against them. While his individual history against Braves pitcher Cal Quantrill is limited (0 HR in 3 PA), his overall power profile and success against this specific opponent in the current season, combined with the favorable park, make him a solid choice for a home run prop.
Todays Top Long Shot Hitters
JJ Bleday (Oakland Athletics)
Pick: JJ Bleday Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +600
Book: ESPN BET
JJ Bleday faces the Seattle Mariners today at T-Mobile Park. While T-Mobile Park generally leans pitcher-friendly with a home run park factor of 92 (below average), Bleday's individual matchup against Mariners pitcher George Kirby presents an intriguing opportunity.
📊 Statistical Breakdown:
Recent Performance: Bleday has not hit a home run in his last 10 games. Over his last 15 games, he's hit the over on home runs in 13.33% of contests, with a mean of 0.13 home runs. His season average for hitting the over on home runs is also 13.33%.
Vs. Opponent (George Kirby): This is where it gets interesting. In 9 career plate appearances against George Kirby, Bleday has a remarkable .556 batting average and a 1.000 slugging percentage, including one home run. His expected batting average (xBA) is .417 and expected slugging (xSLG) is .664, indicating sustained strong contact. His average exit velocity against Kirby is 100.0 MPH, which is elite.
Pine Sports AI Projection: The projection for Bleday's home runs is 0.13.
💰 Recommendation:
Despite the overall pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park and Bleday's recent lack of home runs, his historical performance against George Kirby is exceptionally strong. The high slugging percentage and previous home run against Kirby suggest he sees the ball well off this particular pitcher. Given the high odds, this could be a value play.
Mike Yastrzemski
(Kansas City Royals)
Pick: Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +475
Book: ESPN BET
Mike Yastrzemski and the Kansas City Royals are set to play the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Comerica Park is generally a pitcher-friendly venue, with a home run park factor of 98, slightly below the league average of 100.
📊 Statistical Breakdown:
Recent Performance: Yastrzemski has hit the over on home runs in 40.0% of his last 5 games, with a mean of 0.4 home runs. Over his last 10 games, this drops to 30.0% (mean 0.3). His season average for hitting the over on home runs is 11.3%.
Vs. Opponent (Chris Paddack):Yastrzemski has a strong history against Tigers pitcher Chris Paddack. In 20 career plate appearances, he boasts a .389 batting average and an impressive .889 slugging percentage, including two home runs. His expected batting average (xBA) is .290 and expected slugging (xSLG) is .610, indicating solid contact. His average exit velocity against Paddack is 94.0 MPH.
Pine Sports AI Projection: The projection for Yastrzemski's home runs is 0.11.
💰 Recommendation:
While Comerica Park isn't a hitter's paradise, Yastrzemski's past success against Chris Paddack is a significant factor. His two career home runs against Paddack, combined with a high slugging percentage in their matchups, make him a strong candidate to go deep. The odds offer good value for this specific matchup.
Kerry Carpenter
(Detroit Tigers)
Pick: Kerry Carpenter Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +350
Book: Caesars
Kerry Carpenter will also be playing at Comerica Park against the Kansas City Royals. As noted, Comerica Park is slightly pitcher-friendly, with a home run park factor of 98.
📊 Statistical Breakdown:
Recent Performance: Carpenter has hit the over on home runs in 20.0% of his last 5 games (mean 0.2). Over his last 10 games, this drops to 10.0% (mean 0.1). His season average for hitting the over on home runs is 19.0%.
Vs. Opponent (Michael Wacha): Carpenter has faced Royals pitcher Michael Wacha 12 times in his career, recording a .333 batting average and a .667 slugging percentage, including one home run. His expected slugging (xSLG) is .703, suggesting he hits Wacha hard.
Pine Sports AI Projection: The projection for Carpenter's home runs is 0.22.
💰 Recommendation:
Despite the park factors, Carpenter's history against Michael Wacha is favorable, including a home run in their past encounters. His ability to generate power against Wacha, as indicated by his slugging percentage, makes the over an appealing option at these odds.
