Todays Top Home Run Props: MLB Best Bets 6/25/25
- Lee Shipley
- Jun 25
- 4 min read
What's up everyone! Yesterday was not our best day when it comes to Homeruns and I owe you some winners! I know your looking to hit some dingers today and we've got the hottest home run prop picks for today's MLB games, and trust me, these aren't just random guesses. This is all powered by some seriously smart tech – Pine Sports AI JaXon, to be exact! But, full disclosure, today has some really good pitching matchups on the schedule, and honestly, the weather isn't looking super favorable for a ton of dingers.
So, we're playing today with a bit more caution than usual. Still, we're talking deep dives into who's facing who, how hot guys have been at the plate, and what the recent trends are screaming. Plus, we'll break down exactly why we like each pick and even throw in a direct link so you can get your bets in ASAP. Let's get it!
The Cody Bellinger Bomb (New York Yankees)
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs: +360 at FanDuel
Analysis:
Bellinger has been in solid form recently, with an 80% hit rate for hits in his last 5 gamesand a 100% hit rate against the Reds in 2025(2 games).
While his home run rate is not explicitly provided, his ability to consistently get on base and his power-hitting potential make this a high-reward option.
The Reds' pitching staff has struggled at times, which could provide Bellinger with opportunities to capitalize.
The Elly De La Cruz Bomb (Cincinnati Reds)
Matchup: Facing Max Fried (LHP)
Slugging Percentage: .443
Recent Form: De La Cruz has hit the over in 40% of his last 5 games and 30% of his last 20 games.
Park Factor: Great American Ball Park ranks 3rd in MLB for home run friendliness.
Odds: +552 for over 0.5 home runs
Betting Link: Pinnacle
Why Bet: De La Cruz thrives in hitter-friendly environments, and this matchup against Fried offers a solid opportunity.
The Junior Caminero Bomb (Tampa Bay Rays)
Matchup: Facing Michael Wacha (RHP)
Slugging Percentage: .471
Recent Form: Caminero has hit 4 home runs in his last 10 games and has a .703 slugging percentage over that span.
Park Factor: Kauffman Stadium ranks 7th in MLB for home run potential.
Odds: +360 for over 0.5 home runs
Betting Link: FanDuel
Why Bet: Caminero’s recent power surge and favorable matchup against Wacha make this a strong value play.
The Kyle Stowers Bomb (Miami Marlins)
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs: +870 at FanDuel
Analysis:
Stowers has a 10.96% home run hit rate this season, which is modest but not negligible for a long-shot bet.
His recent form includes a 20% hit rate for home runs in his last 5 games, showing some potential for power.
The Giants' pitching staff has been inconsistent, and Oracle Park's dimensions can occasionally favor left-handed power hitters like Stowers.
The Ceddanne Rafaela Bomb (Boston Red Sox)
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs: +650 at DraftKings
Analysis:
Rafaela has a 10.39% home run hit rate this season, with a 40% hit rate for home runs in his last 5 games.
Against the Angels in 2025, he has a 60% hit rate for home runs, which is a strong indicator of his ability to perform against this opponent.
His recent power surge and favorable matchup make this a compelling option for bettors seeking value.
The Honorable Mentions!
Top 3 Ballparks for Home Runs Today!
Coors Field
(Colorado Rockies)
Park Factor: Coors Field ranks #1 in MLB for home run production with a 205 HR Park Factor(105% above league average). This is due to its high altitude and thin air, which allows balls to travel farther.
Weather Impact: The forecast calls for warm temperatures, which further enhances ball carry. Historically, Coors Field performs even better in warm weather.
Game Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Key Players to Watch: Mickey Moniak (Rockies) and Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) are both power hitters who could thrive in this environment.
Pitching Matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers) vs. Chase Dollander (Rockies). Yamamoto has allowed a .150 SLG against this Rockies lineup, but Coors Field could amplify any mistakes.
Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati Reds)
Park Factor: Ranked #3 in MLB for home runs with a 128 HR Park Factor. This ballpark is known for its small dimensions, making it a hitter-friendly venue.
Weather Impact: Warm and humid conditions are expected, which typically increase home run potential.
Game Matchup: New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds
Key Players to Watch: Aaron Judge (Yankees) and Elly De La Cruz (Reds) are both capable of taking advantage of the park’s dimensions.
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried (Yankees) vs. Brady Singer (Reds). Both pitchers have allowed hard contact in the past, which could lead to home run opportunities.
Target Field (Minnesota Twins)
Park Factor: Ranked #5 in MLB for home runs with a 106 HR Park Factor. Target Field has been a consistent home run-friendly park, especially in warm weather.
Weather Impact: The forecast indicates favorable hitting conditions with mild temperatures and low wind resistance.
Game Matchup: Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Key Players to Watch: Cal Raleigh (Mariners) and Carlos Correa (Twins) are both in strong form and could capitalize on the conditions.
Pitching Matchup: George Kirby (Mariners) vs. Joe Ryan (Twins). Both pitchers have allowed multiple home runs to opposing lineups in past matchups.
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