Todays Top Home Run Props: MLB Best Bets on 6/23/25

Alright, let's get you ready for some dingers! Here are today's top MLB home run prop bets, and all this data and the analysis is backed by Pine Sports AI JaXon. That means you're getting insights from a super-smart system that digs deep into player stats, pitcher matchups, ballparks, and even weather to give you the most informed picks. We've laid out all the detailed analysis, showing you why these bets are looking good, and to make it super easy, we've even included direct betting links for your convenience. Get ready to watch some baseballs fly out of the park!

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The Jo Adell Bomb

(Los Angeles Angels)

• Analysis: Jo Adell has hit 60% of his home run props in the last five games and has a season-long slugging percentage of .477. He has a favorable matchup against the Red Sox, with a 33.33% hit rate for this prop in 2025. Adell’s power numbers are further supported by his performance at home, where he has a 23.33% hit rate for this prop in 2025.

• Odds: Over 0.5 home runs at +424.

• Bet Link: Pinnacle

The Paul Goldschmidt Bomb (New York Yankees)

• Prop Line: Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs

• Odds:

  • Over: +350 at FanDuel

  • Under: -475 at ESPN Bet

• Analysis:Goldschmidt has struggled to hit home runs recently, with a 10% hit rate over his last 10 games and a season average of just 0.11 home runs per game. His performance against the Reds in 2024 was also underwhelming, with a 15.38% hit rate. Might not have the best data to back him up here but the +350 odds for the over are enticing and I think he gets it done!

The Tyrone Taylor Bomb

(New York Mets)

• Prop Line: Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs

• Odds:

  • Over: +1000 at ESPN Bet

  • Under: -2800 at ESPN Bet

• Analysis:Taylor has a very low likelihood of hitting a home run, with a season average of just 0.03 home runs per game and a 5% hit rate over his last 20 games. While he did hit one home run in three games against the Braves this season, the +1000 odds for the over reflect the long-shot nature of this bet. The under is heavily favored for a reason.

The Trevor Larnach Bomb (Minnesota Twins)

• Prop Line: Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs

• Odds:

  • Over: +614 at Pinnacle

  • Under: -1000 at ESPN Bet

• Analysis:Larnach has a 14.08% hit rate for home runs this season, with a slight uptick to 19.35% when playing at home. He has hit one home run in three games against the Mariners this season. While the +614 odds for the over are intriguing, the data strongly supports the under as the more likely outcome.

The Honorable Mentions!

Cal Raleigh (Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins)

• Odds: Over 0.5 home runs at +186.

• Bet Link: FanDuel

Ian Happ (Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals)

• Odds: Over 0.5 home runs at +560.

• Bet Link: FanDuel

Elly De La Cruz (New York Yankees @ Cincinnati Reds)

• Odds: +290

• Book: FanDuel

Top 3 MLB Ballparks for Home Runs Today

Based on park history, home run factors, and weather conditions, here are the top three MLB ballparks with the best chances to produce home runs today:

Citi Field (New York Mets)

• Park Factors:Citi Field has a home run factor of 104 (2023-2025), which is slightly above average. This indicates that it is marginally favorable for home runs compared to other MLB parks. While it’s not a top-tier launching pad, it does reward well-hit fly balls, especially to certain areas of the field.

• Dimensions:Citi Field features relatively deep gaps but shorter porches down the lines, which can benefit pull hitters. The right-field corner, in particular, is a favorable target for left-handed power hitters.

• Weather Conditions:Weather plays a significant role in home run production at Citi Field. During the summer months, hot and humid conditions combined with occasional wind blowing out can enhance carry on fly balls. However, cooler temperatures and higher humidity in early or late-season games can suppress home run totals.

Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati Reds)

• Park Factors:Great American Ball Park is widely regarded as one of the most hitter-friendly venues in MLB, with a home run factor of 128 (2023-2025). This is the second-highest HR factor in the league, making it a true launching pad for sluggers.

• Dimensions:The park’s short porches in left and right fieldand low wall heights make it ideal for home runs. Fly balls that might fall short in other parks often clear the fence here, especially for pull hitters.

• Weather Conditions:The park benefits from warm, humid summer airin Cincinnati, which helps balls travel farther. Additionally, wind patterns in the stadium often favor hitters, particularly when blowing out to left or right field. These conditions amplify the park’s already hitter-friendly dimensions.

Angel Stadium

(Los Angeles Angels)

• Park Factors:Angel Stadium has a home run factor of 113(2023-2025), placing it among the more favorable parks for home runs. While it’s not as extreme as Great American Ball Park, it still provides a solid environment for power hitters.

• Dimensions:The stadium features moderate dimensions, but the ball tends to carry well in the warm Southern California air. The right-center field gap is particularly inviting for left-handed hitters with power.

• Weather Conditions:Angel Stadium benefits from consistently warm weather throughout the season, which aids in ball flight. Additionally, low humidity and occasional wind blowing out to center or right field can further enhance home run potential.