Let's Hit Some DINGERZ! Top Home Run Prop Bets for MLB Today!
- Lee Shipley
- Jun 20
- 4 min read
Updated: Jun 29
Today is set for some DINGERZ! The weather is beautiful around the country for baseball. The bats should come out heavy today! Below are today's top home run prop bets for MLB games, picked by experts at Outlet Sports Ventures and powered by Pine Sports AI JaXon. We’ve analyzed recent performances and favorable matchups to bring you the best selections!
Key Matchups to Watch
The Eugenio Suárez Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +260
Book: BetRivers
Analysis: Suárez has hit the over in 60% of his last five games. He’s playing at Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly park in MLB (Park Factor: 112). This environment amplifies his power potential, making this a strong value play.
The Pete Crow-Armstrong Bomb (Chicago Cubs)
Over 0.5: +330 (FanDuel)
Under 0.5: -475 (ESPN Bet)
Analysis: Crow-Armstrong has struggled with home runs recently. In the last 20 games, he only hit this line in 30% of games, averaging 0.3 home runs per game. At home, his performance drops, hitting just 22.22%. While the +330 odds are attractive, the data indicates this is a long shot. The under is favored for good reason, as he hasn’t shown consistent power lately!
The Randal Grichuk Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Over 0.5: +350 (FanDuel)
Under 0.5: -450 (ESPN Bet)
Analysis: Grichuk has been in a power slump, with only a 15% hit rate for home runs over his last 20 games. His overall season average is even lower at 6.82%. Against the Rockies, he hasn’t hit a home run in his last six matchups. Although the odds for the over are high, the data strongly suggests taking the under.
The Ryan McMahon Bomb (Colorado Rockies)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +480
Book: FanDuel
Analysis: McMahon shows a 22.58% home run hit rate at home this season. While his overall numbers are modest, favorable conditions at Coors Field could provide a high-upside betting opportunity.
The Jo Adell Bomb (Los Angeles Angels)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +578
Book: Pinnacle
Analysis: Adell has hit the over in 40% of his last five games. Facing Hunter Brown, who has a .241 xwOBA against hitters, Adell's power potential is worth considering at these odds.
The Shohei Ohtani Bomb (Los Angeles Angels)
Prop Line: Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs
Odds:
- Over 0.5: +233 (Pinnacle)
- Under 0.5: -320 (ESPN Bet)
Analysis: Ohtani has been a reliable power hitter compared to others. In his last 20 games, he’s hit the over in 15%. His season-long home run hit rate is 28.77%. Against the Nationals, he has a 33.33% hit rate in three matchups this season. While the over has risks, Ohtani's power makes it a more viable option than other analyzed players.
Batters with High Slugging Percentages!
Brent Rooker (Oakland Athletics)
Slugging vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: .568
Analysis: Rooker excels against left-handed pitching. He faces Jeffrey Springs, who has allowed a .500 SLG to right-handed hitters, making this matchup highly favorable.
James Wood (Washington Nationals)
Slugging vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: .591
Analysis: Wood has been a standout for the Nationals. He faces Chase Dollander, who struggles against left-handed hitters. Expect Wood to capitalize on this matchup.
Eugenio Suárez (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Slugging at Coors Field: .600+ (projected)
Analysis: Suárez's power numbers are amplified in Coors Field, making him a top slugging candidate for today.
Top 3 Ballparks for Home Runs Today (June 20, 2025)
Based on weather conditions, historical data, and park factors, here are the three ballparks most favorable for home runs today:
1. Coors Field (Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks)
Weather Conditions: Clear skies with warm temperatures in the mid-80s and light winds blowing out to center field. These conditions are ideal for home runs.
Park Factor: Coors Field is historically the most hitter-friendly park in MLB, with a Park Factor of 112. The high altitude reduces air resistance, allowing balls to travel farther.
Matchup Impact: Arizona's Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is a top candidate for a home run today. He faces left-hander Austin Gomber, who has allowed 56 home runs since 2023. Gurriel has a career .836 OPS against lefties and has homered off Gomber before.
2. Yankee Stadium (New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles)
Weather Conditions: Temperatures in the mid-70s with moderate winds blowing out to right field, favoring left-handed power hitters.
Park Factor: Yankee Stadium is known for its short porch in right field, making it one of the most favorable parks for left-handed hitters. It has a consistently high Park Factor for home runs.
Matchup Impact: Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson and New York's Anthony Rizzo are prime candidates to take advantage of these conditions. Henderson is heating up recently, and Rizzo thrives in this ballpark.
3. Angel Stadium (Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros)
Weather Conditions: Mid-70s with winds blowing out at 8 mph, providing a slight boost to hitters.
Park Factor: While not as hitter-friendly as Coors or Yankee Stadium, Angel Stadium's conditions today make it a favorable spot for home runs.
Matchup Impact: Houston's Yainer Diaz stands out as a solid pick for a home run. He has an .855 OPS against left-handed pitching this season and faces Yusei Kikuchi, who has allowed nine home runs this year—all to right-handed hitters.
Let’s get ready for an exciting day of baseball and hopefully witness some spectacular home runs!
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