Top Home Run Props for Today MLB 6/5/25

Alright, baseball fans, buckle up! We're diving deep into today's MLB slate to uncover the absolute best home run prop bets out there. We've crunched all the numbers, looked at every pitcher-batter matchup, checked the weather, and even pinpointed pitchers who are giving up a lot of hard contact. And the coolest part? All this incredible data is powered and backed by Pine Sports AI JaXon, so you know you're getting top-tier analysis. Let's get these dingers!

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The Eugenio Suárez Bomb

(Arizona D-Backs)

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta BravesOdds:

• Over 0.5 Home Runs: +460 at FanDuel

• Under 0.5 Home Runs: -550 at BetMGM

Analysis:

• Suárez has hit a home run in 20% of his last 5 games and 20% of his last 20 games, averaging 0.2 home runs per game over both spans.

• Against the Braves in 2025, he has a 20% hit rate for home runs (1 in 5 games).

• As a visitor, his home run rate drops to 10.34%this season, which is below average.

• While the odds for the over are enticing at +460, the low hit rate and lack of consistency make this a high-risk bet.

The Michael Busch Bomb (Chicago Cubs)

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington NationalsOdds:

• Over 0.5 Home Runs: +400 at FanDuel

• Under 0.5 Home Runs: -500 at BetMGM

Analysis:

• Busch has hit a home run in 40% of his last 5 games, but this drops to 20% over his last 10 games and 15% over his last 20 games.

• Against the Nationals in 2025, he has a 50% hit rate for home runs (1 in 2 games).

• As a visitor, his home run rate is 25% this season, which is slightly better than Suárez's.

• The +400 odds for the over are appealing, but the inconsistency in his recent performance makes this a speculative play.

The Shohei Ohtani Bomb

(Los Angeles Dodgers)

• Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+250) at BetRivers

• Analysis:

  • Ohtani has a 33.9% season hit rate for home runs and has hit the over in 50% of his last 10 games.

  • At home, his over hit rate is 33.33% this season, with a mean of 0.39 home runs per game.

  • The Mets' pitching staff has struggled with hard-hit balls, making this a favorable matchup for Ohtani's power.

The Honorable Mentions!

Miguel Rojas (LA Dodgers)

Game: New York Mets @ Los Angeles DodgersOdds:

• Over 0.5 Home Runs: +1400 at FanDuel

Kyle Schwarber (The Phillies)

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue JaysOdds:

• Over 0.5 Home Runs: +320 at BetRivers

Cal Raleigh (Seattle Mariners) vs. Baltimore Orioles

• Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+295) at BetRivers