Top Home Run Props for Today MLB 6/9/25
- Lee Shipley
- 3 days ago
- 3 min read
Many bettors say “You really are swinging for the fences with your sports bets taking home run props” but here at The Outlet SV, we are not just throwing darts at a board – we're diving deep into today's top home run hitters, they are hand-picked and backed by some serious data. We're talking batter vs. pitcher stats, slugging rates, hard-hit numbers, Ballpark stats, weather and we even look into historical performances. Every single recommendation comes with detailed analysis, and the best part? All this powerful data is brought to you by JaXon at Pine Sports AI! So Yeah, Let's invest into some dingers today!
The Taylor Ward Bomb
(Los Angeles Angels)
Matchup: Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitcher: TBD (Athletics bullpen game)
Key Stats:
Ward has a season HR rate of 25.81% and has hit 2 home runs in 4 games against the Athletics in 2025.
Hard-hit rate of 104.1 mph exit velocity and 45° launch angle in recent matchups.
Park Factor: Angel Stadium is hitter-friendly for home runs (HR factor: 113).
Betting Odds: Over 0.5 HR at +389 on Pinnacle.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Bomb
(Chicago Cubs)
Recent Performance:
Over the last 5 games, Crow-Armstrong has hit a home run in 40% of games.
Over the last 10 games, his home run hit rate drops to 30%, and over the last 20 games, it’s 20%.
Against the Phillies in 2025, he has 0 home runs in 3 plate appearances.
Season Overview:
Crow-Armstrong has hit 14 home runs in 64 games this season, giving him a season-long hit rate of 21.88%.
Betting Line:
Analysis: Crow-Armstrong’s power numbers are modest, and he has struggled to hit home runs against the Phillies. While the +553 odds for the over are enticing, the data suggests this is a long shot. We love long shots!
The Shohei Ohtani Bomb
(Los Angeles Dodgers)
Recent Performance:
Ohtani has hit a home run in 0% of his last 5 games, 20% of his last 10 games, and 33.33%of his last 15 games.
Against the Padres in 2024, he hit 2 home runs in 15 plate appearances (13.33% hit rate).
Season Overview:
Ohtani has hit 20 home runs in 63 games this season, with a season-long hit rate of 31.75%.
Betting Line:
Analysis: Ohtani’s power numbers are strong, but his recent struggles and limited success against the Padres make the over a risky bet. The +206 odds for the over are reasonable for a player of his caliber, now the under is the safer but no risk no reward and Ohtani been great to us this season.
The Will Benson Bomb (Cincinnati Reds)
Recent Performance:
Benson has hit a home run in 20% of his last 5 games and 10% of his last 10 games.
However, against the Guardians in 2025, he has been exceptional, hitting 3 home runs in 3 plate appearances (100% hit rate).
Season Overview:
Benson has hit 5 home runs in 26 games this season, with a season-long hit rate of 19.23%.
Betting Line:
Analysis: Benson’s recent success against the Guardians makes the over an intriguing option at +540. However, his overall season numbers suggest caution. This is a high-risk, high-reward play. Betting home run props is not for the weak hearted!
The Honorable Mentions!
Manny Machado (San Diego Padres)
Betting Odds: Over 0.5 HR at +440 on FanDuel.
Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays)
Betting Odds: Over 0.5 HR at +475 on BetRivers.
Cal Raleigh (Seattle Mariners)
Betting Odds: Over 0.5 HR at +311 on Pinnacle
George Springer (Toronto Blue Jays)
Betting Odds: Over 0.5 HR at +650 on DraftKings.
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