Today’s Top Homerun Props in the MLB for 6/19/25
- Lee Shipley
- Jun 19
- 4 min read
Get ready for a special treat today because it's looking like a seriously hitter-friendly day across the MLB, with lots of ballparks primed for some long balls and great pitching matchups for batters. We've dug deep into the data, and with the power of Pine Sports AI, JaXon, we've got the best home run prop bets for today's games. Each pick is backed by recent performance trends and key matchups, and we've even included direct betting links for your convenience. Let's hit some dingers!
The Elly De La Cruz Bomb (Cincinnati Reds)
Matchup: Minnesota Twins @ Cincinnati Reds
Recent Performance:
Hit the over in 60% of his last 5 games and 13.51% of home games this season.
While his season-long home run rate is modest, his recent surge makes him a strong candidate.
Odds: +338 for Over 0.5 Home Runs
Book: Pinnacle
The James Wood Bomb (Washington Nationals)
Matchup: Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
Odds:
Analysis:
Wood has a 20% hit rate for home runs in his last 5 and 10 games, and a 23.29% rate over the season.
At home, his success rate is slightly higher at 20.51%.
Against Colorado in 2025, he has hit 2 home runs in 5 games (40% hit rate).
Recommendation: The over offers value at +360, especially given his success against Colorado this season. However, it remains a risky play.
The Josh Bell Bomb (Washington Nationals)
Matchup: Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
Odds:
Analysis:
Bell has a 0% hit rate for home runs in his last 5 and 10 games, and a 14.52% rate over the season.
At home, his success rate is just 6.06%.
Against Colorado in 2025, he has hit 1 home run in 5 games (20% hit rate).
Recommendation: The under is the safer play, but the odds are not favorable. The over is a long shot with limited statistical support.
The Carlos Correa Bomb (Minnesota Twins)
Recent Performance:
Last 5 games: 0% hit rate for home runs.
Last 10 games: 0% hit rate for home runs.
Last 15 games: 6.67% hit rate for home runs.
Last 20 games: 10% hit rate for home runs.
Season average: 8.06% hit rate (5 home runs in 62 games).
Opponent-Specific Stats:
Against the Reds in 2025: 0% hit rate (0 home runs in 2 games).
Against the Reds in 2024: 0% hit rate (0 home runs in 1 game).
Odds:
Analysis:Correa’s home run production has been minimal this season, and his recent trends show no improvement. With a 0% hit rate against the Reds in 2025 and 2024, the under is the safer play. However, the over offers a high payout for those willing to take a chance.
The Jahmai Jones Bomb (Detroit Tigers)
Recent Performance:
Last 5 games: 20% hit rate for home runs.
Last 10 games: 20% hit rate for home runs.
Last 15 games: 13.33% hit rate for home runs.
Last 20 games: 10% hit rate for home runs.
Season average: 22.22% hit rate (2 home runs in 9 games).
Opponent-Specific Stats:
Against the Pirates in 2025: 0% hit rate (0 home runs in 1 game).
Odds:
Analysis:Jones has shown some power in limited appearances, but his overall sample size is small. With no home runs against the Pirates in 2025 and a low hit rate in recent games, the under is the safer option. The over, however, offers a massive payout for those willing to take a high-risk bet.
The Wenceel Pérez Bomb (Detroit Tigers)
Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers
Recent Performance:
Hit the over in 40% of his last 5 games and 33.33% of home games this season.
Against the Pirates in 2025, he has a 100% hit rate for home runs (1 HR in 1 game).
Odds: +625 for Over 0.5 Home Runs
Book: BetMGM
The Brandon Nimmo Bomb (New York Mets)
Recent Performance:
Last 5 games: 0% hit rate for home runs.
Last 10 games: 20% hit rate for home runs.
Last 15 games: 20% hit rate for home runs.
Last 20 games: 20% hit rate for home runs.
Season average: 15.49% hit rate (11 home runs in 71 games).
Opponent-Specific Stats:
Against the Braves in 2025: 0% hit rate (0 home runs in 2 games).
Against the Braves in 2024: 28.57% hit rate (4 home runs in 14 games).
Odds:
Analysis:Nimmo has struggled to hit home runs consistently, with only a 15.49% season hit rate. His performance against the Braves in 2025 has been underwhelming, and the odds reflect the difficulty of this prop. The under is heavily favored, but the over offers significant value for risk-takers.
The Willy Adames Bomb
(SF Giants)
Matchup: Cleveland Guardians @ San Francisco Giants
Odds:
Analysis:
Adames has struggled to hit home runs recently, with a 0% hit rate in his last 5 gamesand only 15% over his last 20 games.
At home, his success rate drops further to 5.88% this season.
Against Cleveland in 2025, he has not hit a home run in 2 matchups.
Recommendation: The under is heavily favored, but the odds are steep. Avoid betting on the over unless you’re chasing a high-risk, high-reward play.
The Top Hitters Today!
Elly De La Cruz (Cincinnati Reds)
Odds: +338 for Over 0.5 Home Runs
Book: Pinnacle
Carlos Correa (Minnesota Twins)
Odds:
Over 0.5 Home Runs: +517 at Pinnacle.
James Wood (Washington Nationals)
Odds:
Over 0.5 Home Runs: +360 at BetMGM
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