Today’s Top Homerun Props: MLB Best Bets 6/30/25
- Lee Shipley
- Jun 30
- 2 min read
Alright, I know you are ready to crush some dingers? We've got the scoop on today's best home run prop bets for MLB, focusing on the sluggers who are red-hot, the ballparks that love long balls, and the pitchers they've taken deep before. We'll break down why each pick is a winner, and you'll even get a direct link to place your bets. All this awesome data is powered by Pine Sports AI JaXon, the world's best sports betting research tool!
The Vladimir Guerrero Jr Bomb (BlueJays)
Odds:
Over 0.5 Home Runs: +570 at Pinnacle
Analysis: Guerrero Jr. has a 40% hit rate for home runs in his last 5 games, but this drops to 20% over his last 20 games. At home this season, his home run rate is 19.51%, which is slightly above his season average of 14.63%. While the +570 odds for the over are appealing, the data suggests this is a risky bet. However, Guerrero Jr.'s power and ability to perform in clutch situations make him a viable option for bettors looking for a high-reward play.
The Ketel Marte Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Matchup Details: Marte faces Logan Webb, against whom he has a solid history. In 27 plate appearances, Marte has hit .208 with a .417 SLG, including a home run. Webb has allowed a .294 SLG to this Diamondbacks lineup, and Chase Field is a hitter-friendly park with a 104 Park Factor
Recent Form: Marte has hit the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last 5 games, showcasing his power surge.
Betting Odds: Over 0.5 HR at +600 on DraftKings
The Bryson Stott Bomb (Phillies)
Odds:
Over 0.5 Home Runs: +750 at FanDuel
Analysis:
Stott has struggled to hit home runs recently, with a 0% hit rate in his last 5 games and only 1 home run in his last 20 games (5% hit rate). At home this season, his home run rate is just 2.86%, making this a long-shot bet. While the +750 odds for the over are enticing, the data does not support a strong likelihood of him hitting a home run in this matchup. The under is heavily favored for a reason.
The Honorable Mentions!
Aaron Judge (New York Yankees)
Matchup: Yankees @ Blue Jays
Odds: +150
Book: FanDuel
7️⃣ Kyle Schwarber (Philadelphia Phillies)
Matchup: Padres @ Phillies
Odds: +275
Book: FanDuel
Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays)
Matchup: Athletics @ Rays
Odds: +366
Book: Pinnacle
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