Today’s Top Homerun Props: MLB Best Bets 7/11/25
- Lee Shipley
- Jul 11
- 6 min read
Welcome back to The Outlet SV, where we're all about those free predictions! I've been deep-diving into today's MLB games, looking at everything from player stats and pitcher matchups to what's going on with the ballparks. My goal? To dish out my top home run prop bets for July 11, 2025. Big thanks to Pine Sports AI JaXon for powering all the data that went into these picks. Let's get into it and make some Money!
The Ketel Marte Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Recommendation: Ketel Marte Over 0.5 Home Runs
Line: 0.5
Odds: +275
Book Link: BetRivers
Matchup & Pitcher Analysis: Ketel Marte, a switch-hitter, is set to face Los Angeles Angels left-handed pitcher Tyler Anderson. Marte has an exceptional historical record against Anderson, boasting a .433 batting average and an impressive .833 slugging percentage across 35 plate appearances. He has also hit 2 home runs and 6 doubles in those matchups. This head-to-head success is a significant factor to consider.
Park Factors: The game will be played at Angel Stadium, which has a home run park factor of 114 for 2023-2025, indicating it's a slightly hitter-friendly environment for long balls.
Recent Performance & Recommendation:While Marte hasn't hit a home run in his last 5 games, he has hit the over on his home run prop in 30% of his last 10 games and 40% of his last 15 games. His season average is 0.29 home runs per game. Given his strong historical performance against Tyler Anderson and the favorable park factors, there's a compelling narrative for him to go deep today.
The Aaron Judge Bomb
(New York Yankees)
Line & Odds: 0.5 Home Runs, +180 BetMGM
Analysis: Aaron Judge is in scorching form, hitting over 0.5 home runs in 40% of his last five and ten games, and boasting an impressive 30.11% hit rate on the season with 28 homers in 93 games. He's been on a "blistering tear" recently, with a .368 average and six homers over his last 11 games. Tonight, he faces Cubs right-hander Chris Flexen, a matchup Judge has historically dominated, going 3-for-6 with two home runs and a double in their head-to-head history. Flexen has also shown struggles with power bats from the right side, and Yankee Stadium is a very hitter-friendly park with a high HR factor of 121. All signs point to Judge continuing his power surge.
The Yainer Diaz Bomb (Houston Astros)
Recommendation: Yainer Diaz Over 0.5 Home Runs
Line: 0.5
Odds: +611
Book Link: Pinnacle
Matchup & Pitcher Analysis: Yainer Diaz, a right-handed hitter, is slated to face Texas Rangers right-handed pitcher Jack Leiter. In a very limited sample size of 3 plate appearances, Diaz has hit 1 home run against Leiter, with a .333 batting average and an impressive 1.333 slugging percentage. This direct head-to-head success is a strong indicator.
Park Factors: The game will be held at Daikin Park, which has a neutral park factor of 100 but a slightly favorable home run factor of 104 for 2023-2025.
Recent Performance & Recommendation: Diaz has hit the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last 5 games, but his hit rate drops to 20% over his last 10 and 15 games, and 15% over his last 20 games. His season average is 0.15 home runs per game. Despite these lower recent trends, his specific history against Jack Leiter, coupled with the slightly favorable park, makes this a high-value long-shot.
Today’s Longshot HR Props!
The Randal Grichuk Bomb
(Arizona Diamondbacks)
Recommendation: Randal GrichukOver 0.5 Home Runs
Line: 0.5
Odds: +359
Book Link: Pinnacle
Matchup & Pitcher Analysis:Randal Grichuk, a right-handed hitter, also faces Tyler Anderson. Grichuk has a strong history against Anderson, with a .308 batting average and a .769 slugging percentage in 14 plate appearances, including 1 home run and 3 doubles. This direct matchup history is very encouraging for his home run potential.
Park Factors: Similar to Marte, Grichuk will benefit from playing at Angel Stadium, which has a home run park factor of 114, making it conducive to home runs.
Recent Performance & Recommendation:Grichuk's recent home run numbers are low, with only 20% hit rate on the over in his last 5 and 10 games, and a season average of 0.08 home runs per game. However, his past success against Anderson, including a home run in just 2 plate appearances against him in 2024, combined with the favorable park, makes him an interesting long-shot play.
The Kyle Schwarber Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)
Line & Odds: 0.5 Home Runs, +250 Fanduel
Analysis: Kyle Schwarber has been hitting the ball well, clearing the 0.5 home run line in 60% of his last five games and 40% of his last ten. He's a consistent power threat with a 30.11% season hit rate for this prop, having hit 28 home runs in 93 games. While he faces Ryan Bergert tonight, who has no career stats against the Phillies, Schwarber has a strong historical performance against the Padres, averaging 0.67 home runs per game in 2024 matchups and 0.33 in 2025. Petco Park, while not a traditional hitter's haven, has a slightly above-average HR factor of 104, which could be enough for Schwarber to capitalize on his recent form.
The José Ramírez Bomb
(Cleveland Guardians)
Line & Odds: 0.5 Home Runs, +410 BetRivers
Analysis: José Ramírez has been on a hot streak recently, hitting over 0.5 home runs in 60% of his last five games. While his season hit rate for this prop is 17.05%, his recent performance indicates a surge in power. Tonight, he faces the Chicago White Sox. Although his direct matchups against Shane Smith and Jonathan Cannon haven't yielded home runs in limited plate appearances, Cannon has given up 3 home runs in 40 plate appearances to the current Guardians roster. Ramírez also has a decent historical record against the White Sox, averaging 0.23 home runs per game in 2024. While Rate Field has a slightly below-average HR factor of 96, Ramírez's recent power surge makes him an intriguing play at these odds.
Best Ball Parks to Produce Homeruns Today!
Angel Stadium
(Los Angeles Angels)
Angel Stadium, home of the Los Angeles Angels, is known for being a favorable environment for hitters, particularly for right-handed batters.
Home Run Production: Angel Stadium has a Home Run Park Factor of 114 for the 2023-2025 seasons. This indicates that it produces 14% more home runs than the average MLB ballpark. It's specifically noted as Statcast's fourth-best hitting park for righty bats, which is a significant factor for power hitters.
Weather Conditions: For games played recently, such as the Rangers vs. Angels series, the weather has been described as "neutral," suggesting no extreme conditions that would significantly suppress or enhance home run hitting beyond the park's inherent characteristics.
Ballpark History/Characteristics: While the research doesn't delve deep into its specific history regarding home run trends, its consistent high HR park factor suggests it has maintained a hitter-friendly profile over recent seasons.
Sutter Health Park
(Athletics, Sacramento)
Sutter Health Park, the temporary home for the Athletics, has quickly gained a reputation as a hitter-friendly venue, especially when compared to their former home, the Oakland Coliseum.
Home Run Production: Although specific numerical park factors from the primary data tool are not available for Sutter Health Park, news reports indicate it is "baseball's second-best hitter's venue according to Statcast Park Factors." This is a significant shift from the Oakland Coliseum, which was known for suppressing offense. Players like Brent Rooker have noted that while it might not be a "launching pad" like some high-altitude parks, it is expected to be more offensive than the Coliseum, potentially playing around or slightly above league average for offense. The early games at the park have seen a notable number of home runs, with nine total homers through the first two games.
Weather Conditions: Sacramento experiences warm summer temperatures, often exceeding 100 degrees. Warm weather generally causes the ball to fly further, which could contribute to more home runs. However, the Athletics have scheduled 60 of their 81 home games at night to mitigate the extreme heat. Early games at the park have also seen "unusual winds blowing out toward center field," which can certainly aid home run production.
Ballpark History/Characteristics: Sutter Health Park is a minor league ballpark, part of the Pacific Coast League, which is historically known for its hitter-friendly environments. The Athletics moved here for at least three seasons starting in 2025, after leaving the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. The park dimensions are 330 feet to left field, 403 feet to center field, and 325 feet to right field.
Daikin Park
(Houston Astros)
Daikin Park, the home of the Houston Astros, is a slightly above-average park for home run production.
Home Run Production: Daikin Park has a Home Run Park Factor of 104 for the 2023-2025 seasons. This means it produces 4% more home runs than the average MLB ballpark. While not as pronounced as Angel Stadium, it still leans towards being a favorable park for power hitters.
Weather Conditions: The research does not provide specific weather conditions for games at Daikin Park. As an indoor stadium, weather typically has less direct impact on ball flight compared to outdoor venues.
Ballpark History/Characteristics: The research does not offer specific historical details about Daikin Park's home run tendencies or unique characteristics that contribute to its home run production beyond its park factor.
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