Today’s Top Homerun Props: MLB Best Bets 7/12/25

Are you ready to smash some dingers? We absolutely went Yonkers on yesterdays DINGERZ Article! Sweeping all our “LongShots”! Let's dive into today's MLB action, July 12, 2025, and find those top sluggers ready to launch one out of the park. We're talking recent performance, sweet matchups, and favorable park factors – all the good stuff! And get this, all our data is powered by Pine Sports AI's JaXon. Here are my top home run prop recommendations for today to help you make some cash!

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The Victor Caratini Bomb (Houston Astros)

• Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +750 BetMGM

Analysis: This is a higher-odds play, but Victor Caratini presents an intriguing opportunity due to his exceptional career matchup against Jacob deGrom. In 17 plate appearances against deGrom, Caratini has hit two home runs, boasting an impressive .457 wOBA and a .765 slugging percentage. While his season-long home run rate is lower (15.62%), his ability to hit deGrom, combined with Daikin Park's slightly batter-friendly home run factor of 104, makes him a compelling long-shot pick for today.

The Aaron Judge Bomb

(New York Yankees)

• Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +205 BetRivers

Analysis: Aaron Judge is having an incredible season, leading the league with 34 home runs and a .354 batting average. He's been a consistent power threat, hitting the over on this line in 40% of his last five and ten games, and maintaining a strong 29.79% hit rate over the season. Today, he faces Matthew Boyd, a left-handed pitcher against whom Judge has already hit a career home run in just 13 plate appearances, boasting an impressive .490 wOBA and .625 slugging percentage. Yankee Stadium is also a significant factor, with a very batter-friendly home run park factor of 121, which means it's 21% more favorable for home runs than the average park. All signs point to Judge continuing his power surge at home.

The Cal Raleigh Bomb (Seattle Mariners)

• Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +265 BetRivers

Analysis: Cal Raleigh has been a consistent power source this season, with a 32.61% over hit rate for home runs. He's hit the over in 40% of his last five and ten games. What truly stands out is his performance against today's opponent, the Detroit Tigers, where he has a 50% over hit rate with a mean of 0.75 home runs in four games this season. While Comerica Park has a slightly pitcher-friendly home run factor of 93, Raleigh's strong season-long power numbers and his proven ability to hit against this specific opponent make him a strong candidate to connect for a long ball.

Today’s LongShot Homerun Hitters!

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The Jake Rogers Bomb (Detroit Tigers)

• Prop: Over 0.5 Home Runs

• Odds: +900

• Book: ESPN BET

Analysis: Jake Rogers has hit the over on 0.5 home runs in 20% of his last 5 games and 10% of his last 10 games. For the season, he's hit the over in just 4.35% of his games, averaging 0.04 home runs per game. While his 2024 performance against the Seattle Mariners showed a 66.67% hit rate for the over, his 2025 performance against them is 0.0%. Playing at home, he has not hit a home run over the 0.5 line this season. This is a longshot bet, as indicated by the high odds, but if you're looking for a high payout, the historical matchup data from 2024 against the Mariners is the most encouraging trend, despite his recent struggles.

The Ian Happ Bomb

(Chicago Cubs)

• Prop: Over 0.5 Home Runs

• Odds: +700

• Book: BetRivers

Analysis: Ian HappIan Happ has not hit the over on 0.5 home runs in his last 5 or 10 games. Over his last 15 games, he's hit the over in 6.67% of contests, and 20% over his last 20 games. His season average for home runs is 0.14 per game, with a 12.05% hit rate on the over. When playing on the road, he's hit the over in 11.36% of his games this season. Similar to Rogers, this is a high-odds bet, reflecting the low probability based on recent performance and season averages.

The Ernie Clement Bomb (Toronto Blue Jays)

• Prop: Over 0.5 Home Runs

• Odds: +750

• Book: Fanduel

Analysis: Ernie Clement has not hit the over on 0.5 home runs in his last 5, 10, 15, or 20 games. His season average is a very low 0.04 home runs per game, hitting the over in just 4.35% of his games. However, in his 2025 matchups against the Oakland Athletics, he has hit the over in 40% of those 5 games, averaging 0.4 home runs. This is the most promising trend for Clement, suggesting a potential for a long ball against this specific opponent, despite his overall season and recent form.