UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira - Top Bets and Props 7/12/25

Get ready for an absolute barnburner this Saturday in Nashville, because UFC Fight Night is about to explode! We've got a heavyweight clash for the ages headlining the card, with the "Black Beast" Derrick Lewis taking on Tallison Teixeira. While I couldn't get the official odds directly, I've been doing some serious digging, scouring all the latest news and analysis to unearth the most electrifying bets and props for you.

So, without further ado, here are my top picks for UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira!

The UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira - Prelim Picks!

UFC Fight Night is set to ignite Nashville this Saturday, July 12th, and while the main card promises fireworks, the prelims are where some serious value can be found! I've dug into the matchups to bring you my top picks for the preliminary card.

1. Chris Curtis Moneyline

• Odds: Chris Curtis (-325) vs. Max Griffin (+260) on DraftKings Sportsbook

• Analysis: Chris Curtis is a strong favorite in this welterweight clash. At 37, Curtis remains a consistent and creative volume striker with excellent takedown defense. His opponent, Max Griffin, is 39 and has shown signs of slowing down, with recent admissions about his preparation impacting performance. While Griffin is known for his toughness, Curtis's ability to maintain a high output and defend against Griffin's attempts to grapple should allow him to control the fight. The expectation is that Curtis will outwork Griffin, potentially even securing a late stoppage, making his moneyline a solid pick.

2. Chidi Njokuani Moneyline

• Odds: Chidi Njokuani (-162) vs. Jake Matthews (+136) on DraftKings Sportsbook

• Analysis: Chidi Njokuani holds significant physical advantages over Jake Matthews, including a four-inch height and seven-inch reach advantage. Njokuani's striking is highly accurate, boasting a division-leading 62% significant strike accuracy. Matthews is a well-rounded fighter who will likely seek to take the fight to the ground, but Njokuani's impressive 75% takedown defense will be a major hurdle. Even if Matthews manages to close the distance, Njokuani's Muay Thai style is well-suited for clinch fighting, allowing him to land powerful strikes in close quarters. Given his physical dominance and technical striking, Njokuani is well-positioned to dictate the pace and secure a victory.

3. Lauren Murphy vs. Eduarda Moura: Fight to Go to Decision

• Odds: Lauren Murphy (+525) vs. Eduarda Moura (-750) on DraftKings Sportsbook

• Analysis: While specific odds for the "fight to go to decision" prop were not available in my research, the analysis strongly suggests this bout will go the distance. Lauren Murphy, despite her age (42) and recent inactivity, is known for her toughness and ability to absorb punishment. Eduarda Moura primarily secures victories through takedowns and control rather than finishes. Murphy's historical takedown defense (69%) is solid, and if she can keep the fight standing, she has the striking to win a close decision. Conversely, if Moura successfully implements her grappling, she is more likely to grind out a comfortable decision than secure a stoppage. Both fighters' styles and historical tendencies point towards this bout reaching the judges' scorecards, even if the moneyline heavily favors Moura.

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira - Top Bets and Props

1. Tallison Teixeira to Win by KO/TKO/DQ

• Line: -185

• Analysis: Tallison Teixeira enters this fight as the betting favorite, and for good reason. The undefeated prospect has an impressive record of eight professional wins, all coming by first-round stoppage (seven knockouts, one submission). His recent 35-second TKO over Justin Tafa at UFC 312 sent a clear message to the heavyweight division. While Derrick Lewis is known for his incredible knockout power and durability, Teixeira's youth, reach, and finishing ability are significant factors. Many analysts believe Teixeira will quickly separate Lewis from his consciousness, making a victory by strikes a strong possibility. This pick aligns with the narrative of Teixeira's rapid ascent and his consistent ability to finish opponents early.

2. Fight Won't Go The Distance (Lewis vs. Teixeira)

• Line: -210 (Under 1.5 Rounds)

• Analysis: Derrick Lewis's fights are rarely dull, and they very often don't go the distance. He holds the UFC record for most knockouts with 15, and his style is predicated on landing a fight-ending blow. On the other side, Tallison Teixeira has finished all eight of his professional fights in the first round. This matchup pits two heavy-hitting finishers against each other, creating a high probability of an early stoppage. The round total is set at a low 1.5, reflecting the expectation that this fight will end well before the final bell. Given both fighters' tendencies, betting on this fight to end inside the distance is a statistically sound play.

3. Gabriel Bonfim to Win by Submission

• Line: +125

• Analysis: In the co-main event, Gabriel Bonfim faces veteran Stephen Thompson. Bonfim is a significant favorite, and his grappling prowess makes a submission victory a very attractive prop. Bonfim has submitted four of his six UFC opponents, showcasing his dangerous jiu-jitsu skills. Stephen Thompson, at 42 years old, has seen his anti-grappling defense decline significantly, going 1-4 in his last five fights with losses often coming from stylistic mismatches involving grappling. Bonfim's wrestling (76% takedown accuracy) and submission attempts (2.2 per 15 minutes) are elite, and he is expected to exploit Thompson's vulnerabilities on the ground. At +125, this offers excellent value for a highly probable outcome.

4. Steve Garcia to Win by KO/TKO

• Line: +165

• Analysis: Steve Garcia is on an impressive five-fight winning streak, with all five victories coming by knockout since he dropped to featherweight. His power and aggressive style have made him a formidable opponent. He faces Calvin Kattar, who, despite a legendary chin, has lost four fights in a row. While Kattar has never been truly knocked out (his only TKO was due to a knee injury), his increased age and recent string of tough fights suggest his durability might be tested like never before. Garcia's high knockdown rate (3.07%) and consistent finishing ability make a KO/TKO victory a strong possibility, especially against a veteran like Kattar who has absorbed a lot of damage throughout his career.