Today’s Top Homerun Props: MLB Best Bets 7/3/25
- Lee Shipley
- Jul 3
- 4 min read
Alright, get ready for today's best home run prop bets! I'm diving into the stats to find batters with high slugging percentages who are facing pitchers giving up a lot of hard contact. Every pick comes with a detailed analysis and convenient betting links, all powered and backed by Pine Sports AI JaXon.
The Shohei Ohtani Bomb
(Los Angeles Dodgers)
Prop Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +145
Book: BetMGM
Analysis:
Ohtani is in elite form, hitting a home run in five of his last eight games. His season slugging percentage of .637 leads the league, and he’s facing a White Sox bullpen game, which has a 4.06 ERA. Ohtani also excels against left-handed pitching, batting .305 this season. With his power and the White Sox's pitching struggles, this is a strong value play.
The Aaron Judge Bomb
(New York Yankees)
Prop Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +230
Book: BetRivers
Analysis:
Judge has a 40% hit rate for home runs in his last five games and a season slugging percentage of .471. He’s facing Chris Bassitt, who has allowed four home runs in his last two starts. Judge’s power and Bassitt’s recent struggles make this a compelling pick.
The Ketel Marte Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Prop Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +360
Book: BetRivers
Analysis:
Marte has a 60% hit rate for home runs in his last five games and a .633 slugging percentage against Brandon Pfaadt, who has allowed two home runs in 35 plate appearances against the Giants. Chase Field is also a hitter-friendly park, ranking 3rd in park factors for home runs.
The Long Shot Homerun Props!
The Mauricio Dubón Bomb (Huston Astros)
Odds:
Over 0.5 Home Runs: +900 at BetMGM
Mauricio Dubón has a 6.35% hit rate for home runs this seasonand has not hit a home run in his last 5 games. His last 20-game average is 0.2 home runs per game, and he has not homered against the Colorado Rockies in 2025. While the odds for the over are enticing at +900, the data does not support this as a strong bet.
The Willy Adames Bomb (Milwaukee Brewers)
Odds:
Over 0.5 Home Runs: +575 at BetMGM
Analysis:
Willy Adames has a 10.47% hit rate for home runs this season and has hit 2 home runs in his last 6 games against the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2025. However, his last 15-game average is just 0.13 home runs per game, and his overall season performance does not suggest a strong likelihood of hitting a home run. The over at +575 offers value for risk-takers, but obviously the under is the safer play.
The Christian Yelich Bomb (Milwaukee Brewers)
Prop Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +900
Book: ESPN Bet
Analysis:
Yelich has a 40% hit rate for home runs in his last five games and a .667 slugging percentage against David Peterson, who has allowed two home runs in 59 plate appearances against the Brewers. Citi Field is slightly pitcher-friendly, but Yelich’s recent form and Peterson’s vulnerability to power hitters make this a high-value longshot.
The Riley Greene Bomb (Detroit Tigers)
Prop Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +350
Book: BetRivers
Analysis:
Greene has a 60% hit rate for home runs in his last five games and a .565 slugging percentage against Jake Irvin, who has allowed two home runs in 25 plate appearances against the Tigers. Nationals Park is slightly hitter-friendly, ranking 6th in park factors.
Todays Top Ball Parks to Produce Homeruns!
Coors Field (Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies)
3:10 PM EST
Why Coors Field Stands Out:
Park Factor: Coors Field ranks #1 in Park Factor (112), making it the most hitter-friendly ballpark in MLB. It significantly boosts offensive production, including home runs.
Home Run Factor: The home run factor is an astronomical 203, meaning it produces over twice as many home runs as the average MLB park.
Weather: No weather delays are expected, and the thin air in Denver further enhances the ball's carry, favoring long balls.
Key Matchup Notes:
Pitchers: Brandon Walter (Astros) and Kyle Freeland (Rockies) are both left-handed. Freeland has allowed a .507 SLG against current Astros hitters, while Walter has limited data but faces a Rockies lineup that thrives at home.
Hitter to Watch: Christian Walker (Astros) has a career .600 SLG against Freeland, including 2 home runs.
Chase Field (SF Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks)
9:40 PM EST
Why Chase Field Stands Out:
Park Factor: Chase Field ranks #3 in Park Factor (104), making it one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB.
Home Run Factor: The home run factor is 194, indicating a strong likelihood of home runs.
Weather: As a retractable-roof stadium, Chase Field eliminates weather concerns, ensuring optimal conditions for hitters.
Key Matchup Notes:
Pitchers: Robbie Ray (Giants) and Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks) are on the mound. Pfaadt has a 5.55 ERA against right-handed hitters, and Ray has allowed 8 home runs to righties this season.
Hitter to Watch: Eugenio Suárez (Diamondbacks) has a .818 SLG and 1 home run in 11 at-bats against Ray.
Dodger Stadium (Chicago White Sox @ LA Dodgers)
10:10 PM EST
Why Dodger Stadium Stands Out:
Park Factor: Dodger Stadium ranks #10 in Park Factor (101), slightly above average for hitters.
Home Run Factor: The home run factor is 127, making it one of the better parks for long balls.
Weather: Clear skies and warm temperatures in Los Angeles will aid ball flight.
Key Matchup Notes:
Pitchers: Aaron Civale (White Sox) and Dustin May (Dodgers) are starting. Civale has allowed 3 home runs in just 17.3 innings against left-handed hitters this season.
Hitter to Watch: Will Smith (Dodgers) has a perfect 1.000 batting average and 2 home runs in 3 plate appearances against Civale.
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