Today’s Top Homerun Props: MLB Best Bets for 7/20/25
- Lee Shipley
- 5 days ago
- 4 min read
I've dug into today's MLB matchups to find the best home run prop bets, focusing on hitters who are crushing the ball and have great matchups against the pitchers they'll face. All the data and picks are backed by Pine Sports AI JaXon, the world's most advanced sports betting research tool available to the public. Here are my top recommendations for today's action!
The Kyle Schwarber Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)
Odds: +295 BetRivers
Analysis: Kyle Schwarber is in red-hot form, having hit the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last five and ten games. He's been launching bombs, including a grand slam yesterday against the Angels, bringing his 2025 total to 32 home runs. Schwarber is known for his power, and he's currently feasting on mistakes. Today, he faces José Soriano, a right-handed pitcher who, while solid, is not unhittable. Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies' home stadium, also boasts a favorable home run park factor of 113, meaning it's 13% more conducive to home runs than the average MLB park. This combination of a hot bat, a susceptible pitcher, and a hitter-friendly park makes Schwarber a strong play.
The Nick Kurtz Bomb
(Oakland Athletics)
Odds: +400 Fanduel
Analysis: Nick Kurtz is on an absolute tear, showcasing the breakout slugging potential the Athletics have been hoping for. In his last eight games, he's slashing an incredible .433/.500/1.133 with five home runs, four doubles, and 12 RBIs, posting a monstrous 1.633 OPS. He's hit the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last five games. Today, Kurtz faces Gavin Williams, a right-handed pitcher who, despite being generally solid, has shown a vulnerability to the long ball, giving up seven home runs in his last nine starts. While Progressive Field has a slightly below-average home run park factor of 85, Kurtz's elite recent form and Williams' recent struggles with homers create a compelling opportunity.
The José Ramírez Bomb (Cleveland Guardians)
Odds: +400 DraftKings
Analysis: José Ramírez enters today's game having hit the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last five games and 50% of his last ten. He's facing Jeffrey Springs, a left-handed pitcher against whom Ramírez has a favorable individual history, with one home run in nine career plate appearances. Ramírez is known for his power from both sides of the plate, and his ability to connect against left-handed pitching is a key factor here. Although Progressive Field has a slightly pitcher-friendly home run park factor of 85, Ramírez's proven power and past success against Springs make him a strong consideration for a long ball today.
The Manny Machado Bomb (San Diego Padres)
Odds: +380 BetRivers
Analysis: Manny Machado has hit the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last five and ten games. He has a solid individual matchup against today's starting pitcher, MacKenzie Gore, a left-hander. In eight career plate appearances against Gore, Machado has recorded one home run. This demonstrates his ability to connect against this specific pitcher. While Nationals Park has a slightly below-average home run park factor of 94, Machado's consistent power and his past success against Gore provide a good foundation for this prop bet.
Today’s Long Shot Selections!
Eugenio Suárez - Home Run Over 0.5
Odds: +375
Book: ESPN BET
Analysis:
Eugenio Suárez faces Miles Mikolas today, a matchup that has historically favored Suárez. In 17 career at-bats against Mikolas, Suárez boasts an impressive .412 batting average and a .824 slugging percentage, including two home runs. While his recent home run hit rate has been lower (40% in his last 5 games, 30% in his last 10 and 20 games), this specific pitcher-batter history is a strong indicator. The game is at Chase Field, which is generally a hitter-friendly park, though it plays slightly below average for home runs. Given the favorable individual matchup, these odds offer intriguing value for Suárez to go deep.
Michael A. Taylor - Home Run Over 0.5
Odds: +550
Book: DraftKings
Analysis:
Michael A. Taylor has a compelling history against today's starting pitcher, Andrew Heaney. In 11 career at-bats, Taylor has hit two home runs off Heaney, with an incredible 1.000 slugging percentage. This head-to-head dominance is a significant factor. However, it's important to note that PNC Park, where the game is being played, is known to be pitcher-friendly, especially for home runs. Taylor's overall recent home run production has been minimal (0% in his last 5 games, 10% in his last 10 and 20 games), and his season average is low at 0.06 HR per game. Despite the challenging park and recent form, his strong historical performance against Heaney makes this a high-upside, long-shot play.
Spencer Horwitz - Home Run Over 0.5
Odds: +700
Book: BetRivers
Analysis: Spencer Horwitz has a very limited but perfect history against Aaron Civale, hitting one home run in just two career at-bats, resulting in a 2.000 slugging percentage. While this is a small sample size, it shows his capability against this specific pitcher. Similar to Taylor, Horwitz will be playing at PNC Park, which is not conducive to home runs. His recent home run numbers are also very low (0% in his last 5 and 10 games, 4.17% season average). This pick is a true long shot, heavily relying on the small but impactful historical matchup against Civale. If you're looking for a high-payout dart throw based on a specific head-to-head history, this could be it.
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