Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 5/21/25
- Lee Shipley
- May 21
- 3 min read
For today's MLB home run best bets, we're sharing the top sluggers with the best chances of going deep. These selections are powered by the smart analysis of Pine Sports AI JaXon and then given the seal of approval by an MLB analytics expert from Outlet Sports Ventures. So, you're getting a winning combination of cutting-edge tech and seasoned baseball insight to help you make your wagers!
The Yainer Diaz Bomb
(Houston Astros)
Prop Line: Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs
Odds:
Analysis:Yainer Diaz has struggled to hit home runs recently, with a 20% hit rate over his last 5 and 10 games. His season-long home run hit rate is just 12.2%, and he has failed to hit a home run in his lone matchup against the Rays this season. Additionally, his performance as a visitor this year shows a 15% hit rate for home runs. While the +460 odds for the over are enticing, the data does not strongly support this bet.
Recommendation: Over .5 homeruns at ESPN Bet. Diaz's recent struggles make this a not so safer play but love the matchup for him!
The Austin Hays Bomb
(Cincinnati Reds)
Prop Line: Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs
Odds:
Analysis:Austin Hays has a 20% home run hit rate over his last 5 games and a season-long rate of 20.83%. However, he has not hit a home run in 2 matchups against the Pirates this season. His performance as a visitor shows a 14.29% home run hit rate, which is below his season average. The Pirates' pitching staff has also been effective at limiting home runs in recent games.
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Homeruns at ESPN Bet. Hays recent struggles and the Pirates pitching make the under the more reliable option but this is a great spot for him!
The Yoán Moncada Bomb
(LA Angels)
Over 0.5 Home Runs:
Odds: +525
Book: BetMGM
Recent Performance & Trends
Last 5 Games: Moncada has hit a home run in 40% of his last 5 games, averaging 0.4 home runs per game.
Last 10 Games: His home run hit rate drops to 20%, with an average of 0.2 home runs per game.
Season Performance: Over the last 20 games, Moncada has hit a home run in 15% of games, averaging 0.15 home runs per game.
Vs. Oakland Athletics (2025): Moncada has faced the Athletics twice this season, hitting a home run in 50% of those games, averaging 0.5 home runs per game.
On the Road (2025): As a visitor, Moncada has hit a home run in 14.29% of games, averaging 0.14 home runs per game.
Recommendation:
Moncada's recent power surge, with a home run in 40% of his last five games, makes the +525 odds for him to hit one out today look tempting as a longshot bet. However, he's been pretty inconsistent at the plate this season, only getting a hit in 15% of his last 20 games overall and a measly 14.29% on the road. While the Athletics' pitching staff has been known to give up the long ball, and Moncada has a 50% home run rate against them this season, these odds still reflect how tough it is to predict a home run in any single game. So, while there's some upside, this is definitely a high-risk wager.
Summary of Recommendations
Dalton Varsho HR
Trent Grisham HR
Brent Rooker HR
Pete Crow Armstrong HR
Fernando Tatis HR
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