Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 7/18/25
- Lee Shipley
- Jul 18
- 4 min read
Let's dive into today's MLB matchups and pinpoint some top home run prop opportunities! I've analyzed everything from player form to pitcher matchups and even park factors to bring you my best insights for Friday's games. The best part? All of the data is backed by Pine Sports AI, JaXon, and the picks are from the experts here at The Outlet SV! So you can be confident that the research is coming from the most advanced AI in sports betting and some of the top experts in the industry.
The Kyle Schwarber Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +360
Book: Caesars
Kyle Schwarber is a prime candidate to go deep tonight. He's been in excellent form recently, hitting the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last five games. The Philadelphia Phillies are playing at Citizens Bank Park, which is known to be very hitter-friendly for home runs, boasting a Park Factor of 112. This means the park itself is conducive to long balls. While the Los Angeles Angels' starting pitcher, Ryan Zeferjahn, has not faced the current Phillies roster in his career, Schwarber's strong performance at home this season, with a 30.43% over hit rate for home runs, makes him a significant threat.
Recommendation:
I'm backing Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run
The Brandon Lowe Bomb (Tampa Bay Rays)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +450
Book: BetMGM
Brandon Lowe presents a compelling case for a home run tonight, especially given his historical performance against the Baltimore Orioles. He has an impressive 57.14% over hit rate for home runs against the Orioles in 2025, having hit 4 home runs in just 7 plate appearances. This head-to-head dominance is a strong indicator. Although his overall recent hit rates are 20% over his last five games and 40% over his last ten, the specific matchup against the Orioles is highly favorable. News reports also highlight that Orioles pitcher Taj Bradley has been prone to giving up home runs, particularly at home, and Lowe has a strong career history against Bradley, going 7 for 17 with a home run. The game is being played in a minor-league park that the Rays are using as their home field, which could further contribute to a hitter-friendly environment.
Recommendation:
My pick is for Brandon Lowe to hit a home run
The Randy Arozarena Bomb (Seattle Mariners)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +531
Book: Pinnacle
Randy Arozarena is another strong contender for a home run tonight. He has shown good recent form, hitting the over in 60% of his last five games and 50% of his last ten. The Seattle Mariners are facing the Houston Astros, and the news indicates that Astros pitcher Brandon Walter is particularly susceptible to the long ball. Walter has given up 8 home runs in 40.2 innings this season, with 7 of those coming from right-handed hitters. While T-Mobile Park has a slightly pitcher-friendly HR Park Factor of 92, Arozarena's recent power surge combined with Walter's vulnerability makes this an attractive matchup. The high odds of +531 offer significant value for a player in good form facing a pitcher who struggles with home runs.
Recommendation:
I'm recommending Randy Arozarena to hit a home run
Today’s Long Shot Hitters!
The Adam Frazier Bomb
(KC Royals)
Odds: +1700 DraftKings
Analysis: Adam Frazier has a very low historical hit rate for home runs. He has not hit a home run in his last 5, 10, or 15 games, and only once in his last 20 games (5% hit rate). For the entire season, he's hit the over on home runs in just 3.85% of his games, averaging 0.04 home runs per game. Against the Miami Marlins in 2025, he has yet to hit a home run in 7 appearances. While the odds are long, indicating a low probability, his recent and season-long performance suggests a home run is unlikely today.
The Ryan O'Hearn Bomb (Baltimore Orioles)
Odds: +630 Fanduel
Analysis: Ryan O'Hearn's home run prop also shows a low probability based on recent performance. He has not hit a home run in his last 5, 10, or 15 games. Over his last 20 games, he's hit the over just once (5% hit rate). His season-long hit rate for home runs is 13.25%, with an average of 0.13 home runs per game. Against the Tampa Bay Rays in 2025, he has not hit a home run in 7 matchups. While the odds are more favorable than Frazier's, the statistical trends do not strongly support a home run today.
The Rafael Devers Bomb
(SF Giants)
Odds: +400 BetRivers
Analysis: Rafael Devers, like the others, has not hit a home run in his last 5, 10, or 15 games. He has hit the over on home runs in 5% of his last 20 games. For the season, he's hit the over in 17% of his games, averaging 0.18 home runs per game. However, against the Toronto Blue Jays in 2024, he showed a stronger performance, hitting the over in 42.86% of his 7 matchups, averaging 0.43 home runs. This historical performance against the Blue Jays offers a glimmer of hope compared to his recent form, but his current trend is cold.
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