Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 8/21/25
- Lee Shipley
- Aug 21
- 5 min read
Don’t have to hide it, you’re happy to see that we are back! Time to go yard! We're breaking down today's MLB slate to find the hitters most likely to launch one out of the park. We'll be looking at everything from their matchups and recent performance to stadium factors, with all the data and research powered by Pine Sports AI, JaXon.
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Yandy Díaz Bomb
(Tampa Bay Rays)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +600
Book: BetMGM
📊 Statistical Breakdown:
Recent Performance: Yandy Díaz has not hit an over on his home run prop in his last 10 games. His over hit rate for the last 15 games is 6.67%, and for the season, it's 15.0%, with a mean of 0.17 home runs per game.
Vs. Opponent: Against the St. Louis Cardinals in 2024, Díaz did not hit an over on this prop in 3 appearances.
Home/Away Split: At home in 2025, Díaz has a slightly better over hit rate of 22.58%.
Pitcher Matchup (vs. Sonny Gray): In 6 plate appearances against Cardinals pitcher Sonny Gray, Díaz has hit 3-for-5 with a double, but no home runs. His wOBA against Gray is 0.616, indicating strong contact, but not necessarily power.
Park Factor (George M. Steinbrenner Field): The research does not provide specific park factor data for George M. Steinbrenner Field for this game.
💰 Betting Recommendation:
Yandy Díaz's overall home run hitting trends are not favorable for the over, as he hasn't hit one in his last 10 games. While he has a good batting average against Sonny Gray, he hasn't shown power in that specific matchup. Without specific park factor data to suggest a boost, this prop carries significant risk.
The Shohei Ohtani Bomb
(Los Angeles Dodgers)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+200) ESPN Bet
Matchup Analysis: Ohtani faces Chase Dollander, a right-handed pitcher. While the sample size is small (3 plate appearances), Ohtani has shown strong contact against Dollander with a .500 slugging percentage and a .525 wOBA in their limited career encounters. Ohtani's season home run hit rate stands at 32.26%.
Park Factor Advantage: This game is being played at Coors Field, which is known as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB. It boasts a Park Factor of 112 and a Home Run Factor of 106, significantly boosting the chances for extra-base hits and home runs.
Recent Performance: Ohtani has hit the over on his home run prop in 20% of his last 5 games and 40% of his last 10 games. While his very recent form is mixed, the favorable park and his overall power make him a prime candidate.
The Giancarlo Stanton Bomb (New York Yankees)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+250) ESPN Bet
Matchup Analysis: Stanton is set to face Lucas Giolito, a right-handed pitcher. In 8 career plate appearances against Giolito, Stanton has recorded 1 home run, a .571 slugging percentage, and a .340 wOBA, indicating a strong historical performance in this specific matchup.
Park Factor Advantage: Yankee Stadium is a well-known power alley, especially for right-handed hitters like Stanton. It has a Home Run Factor of 120, making it one of the most favorable venues for home runs today.
Recent Performance: Stanton has been in excellent form, hitting the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last 5 games. He also boasts a remarkable 1.201 OPS since the All-Star Break, highlighting his current hot streak at the plate.
The Christian Yelich Bomb (Milwaukee Brewers)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+700) BetMGM
Matchup Analysis: Yelich has a compelling individual history against today's opposing pitcher, Shota Imanaga (LHP). In 8 career plate appearances, Yelich has hit 1 home run, with an impressive .750 slugging percentage and a .477 wOBA. This suggests he sees Imanaga's pitches very well.
Park Factor Consideration: Wrigley Field, while a historic venue, has a slightly pitcher-friendly Home Run Factor of 96. However, Yelich's strong individual matchup against Imanaga helps to offset this.
Recent Performance: Yelich has hit the over on his home run prop in 20% of his last 5 games and 40% of his last 10 games. While his season home run hit rate is 19.17%, his specific success against Imanaga makes him a strong consideration.
Today’s Top Long Shot Homerun Hitters!
The Blake Perkins Bomb (Milwaukee Brewers)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +900
Book: ESPN BET
📊 Statistical Breakdown:
Recent Performance: Blake Perkinshas not hit an over on his home run prop in his last 5 games, and only in 10% of his last 10 games. His season-long over hit rate stands at 7.69%, with a mean of 0.12 home runs per game.
Vs. Opponent: Against the Chicago Cubs in 2025, Perkins has not hit an over on this prop in 6 appearances. However, looking back to 2024, he hit the over in 20% of his 10 games against them.
Home/Away Split: When playing on the road in 2025, Perkins has hit the over in 12.5% of his games.
Pitcher Matchup (vs. Shota Imanaga): This is where it gets interesting. In a very limited sample of 4 plate appearances against Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga, Perkins has been exceptional, hitting 3-for-4 with 2 doubles and 1 home run. His slugging percentage against Imanaga is a staggering 2.000, with a wOBA of 1.139.
Park Factor (Wrigley Field): Wrigley Field has a home run park factor of 96, indicating it's slightly less favorable for home runs than the average MLB park.
💰 Betting Recommendation:
While Blake Perkins' overall and recent home run numbers are low, the historical individual matchup against Shota Imanaga is a significant outlier. He has already taken Imanaga deep once in their limited encounters. Given the high odds, this could be a high-risk, high-reward play based purely on that specific historical success.
The Dylan Carlson Bomb (Baltimore Orioles)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +875
Book: BetMGM
📊 Statistical Breakdown:
Recent Performance: Dylan Carlsonhas hit the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last 5 games, with a mean of 0.4 home runs. However, his season-long over hit rate is 9.38%, with a mean of 0.09 home runs per game.
Vs. Opponent (Houston Astros): Carlson has shown a strong recent tendency to hit home runs against the Houston Astros in 2025, hitting the over in 66.67% of his 3 appearances against them, with a mean of 0.67 home runs.
Home/Away Split: At home in 2025, Carlson has hit the over in 6.67% of his games.
Pitcher Matchup (vs. Jason Alexander):Carlson has an incredibly strong historical matchup against Astros pitcher Jason Alexander. In 4 plate appearances, he is 2-for-4 with a triple and 1 home run. His slugging percentage against Alexander is an astounding 1.750, with a wOBA of 0.907.
Park Factor (Oriole Park at Camden Yards): Oriole Park at Camden Yards has a home run park factor of 107, indicating it's slightly more favorable for home runs than the average MLB park.
💰 Betting Recommendation:
Despite Dylan Carlson's lower season-long home run rate, his recent performance against the Houston Astros and his individual matchup against pitcher Jason Alexander are highly compelling. He has already homered off Alexander in their limited history, and Oriole Park is a slightly favorable venue for home runs. This prop presents an intriguing opportunity given the specific matchup data.
Comments