Todays Top Home Run Props for MLB Games on 6/22/25
- Lee Shipley
- Jun 22
- 4 min read
Welcome back to The Outlet Sports Ventures! I’m guessing your here looking for some solid home run prop bets for today's MLB games? You've come to the right place. We're diving deep into batters with high slugging percentages and awesome matchups against pitchers who tend to give up hard hits. Each pick comes with a breakdown and a direct betting link to make things super easy. Oh, and a little heads-up: all this awesome data is powered by Pine Sports AI's JaXon!
The Trent Grisham Bomb (New York Yankees)
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+300)
Book: FanDuel
Analysis:Grisham has a season-long home run hit rate of 18.46%, with a slight uptick to 25% in four games against the Orioles this year. However, his recent form is underwhelming, with just a 10% hit rate over the last 10 games. Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field could work in his favor, but his overall lack of consistency makes this a speculative play. The odds provide value for a longshot bet, but it’s not a high-confidence pick.
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)The hitter-friendly conditions at Yankee Stadium and favorable odds make this a decent longshot.
The Eugenio Suárez Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+240)
Book: DraftKings
Analysis:Suárez is coming off a milestone performance, hitting his 300th career home run in a four-hit game. He has been on a tear, with 48 home runs over the last calendar year. Facing Carson Palmquist, a left-handed pitcher with command issues, Suárez is in a prime spot to continue his power surge. Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly park in MLB, further boosts his chances, especially with temperatures near 100°F. Suárez has hit the over in 60% of his last five games and has a strong history against lefties.
The Ian Happ Bomb
(Chicago Cubs)
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+270)
Book: Pinnacle
Analysis:Happ has a 100% hit rate for this prop in his lone matchup against the Mariners this season. His recent form includes a 40% hit rate over the last five games, and he benefits from playing at Wrigley Field, where conditions are expected to favor hitters due to warm weather and a slight breeze. Happ's ability to pull the ball and generate fly balls makes him a solid pick.
The Nathaniel Lowe Bomb (Washington Nationals)
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+600)
Book: ESPN Bet
Analysis:Lowe has a season-long home run hit rate of just 13.33%, with no home runs in four games against the Dodgers this year. His recent form is also poor, with a 10% hit rate over the last 20 games. While the odds are enticing, the data does not support a strong likelihood of Lowe hitting a home run in this matchup. This is a high-risk, low-probability bet.
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐ (2/5)Poor recent form and matchup history make this a low-confidence play.
The Corbin Carroll Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+210)
Book: ESPN Bet
Analysis:Carroll has a season-long home run hit rate of 22.22%, but his recent form is concerning, with a 20% hit rate over the last 20 games. Additionally, he has not hit a home run in three matchups against the Rockies this season. While Coors Field is a hitter-friendly park, Carroll’s hand injury (sustained on June 18) raises doubts about his ability to generate power. Manager Torey Lovullo has indicated that Carroll is not 100% and may not even play. This makes the over a risky bet despite favorable odds.
Top 3 MLB Ballparks for Home Runs on 6/22/25
Here are the three best ballparks for home runs in today’s MLB games, based on park factors and conditions:
Coors Field (Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies)
Park Factor for Home Runs: 207 (highest in MLB)
Analysis:
Coors Field is the most hitter-friendly park in the league, with a staggering 107% increase in home run production compared to the league average. The thin air in Denver significantly reduces air resistance, allowing balls to travel farther. Additionally, both teams feature power hitters, and the Rockies’ pitching staff has struggled to contain opposing offenses. Expect plenty of long balls in this matchup.
Yankee Stadium (Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees)
Park Factor for Home Runs: 122
Analysis:
Yankee Stadium is well-known for its short porch in right field, which heavily favors left-handed power hitters. With Dean Kremer on the mound for the Orioles, who has allowed six home runs in 102 plate appearances against the Yankees’ current roster, this game has strong potential for home runs. Aaron Judge, in particular, has thrived in this park, hitting four home runs in 18 plate appearances against Kremer.
Citizens Bank Park (New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies)
Park Factor for Home Runs: 112
Analysis:
Citizens Bank Park consistently ranks among the top parks for home runs due to its compact dimensions. The Phillies’ lineup, featuring power hitters like Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm, is well-suited to take advantage of these conditions. David Peterson, the Mets’ starting pitcher, has allowed three home runs in 148 plate appearances against the Phillies’ current roster, further boosting the likelihood of home runs in this game.
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