Top Homerun Props for Today’s MLB Games 6/7/25

Here are today’s top MLB home run prop recommendations! We've analyzed all the matchups to find the most favorable spots, focusing on pitching vs. batting matchups, high slugging potential, and hitter-friendly ballparks. All data is powered by Pine Sports AI and hand-picked by an MLB expert here at The Outlet SV.

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The Junior Caminero Bomb (Tampa Bay Rays)

• Recent Performance: Caminero has hit the over in 50% of his last 10 games and has a solid season mean of 0.25 HR per game.

• Ballpark Factor: Tropicana Field is neutral but slightly favors hitters for power.

• Odds: Over 0.5 HR at +446 on Pinnacle.

• Recommendation: Caminero’s power and favorable odds make him a value pick for a home run.

The Pete Alonso Bomb

(New York Mets)

• Recent Performance: Alonso has hit the over in 40% of his last 10 games and has a season mean of 0.23 HR per game. He’s also hit 25% against the Rockies in 2025.

• Ballpark Factor: Coors Field is the most hitter-friendly park in MLB, significantly boosting home run potential.

• Odds: Over 0.5 HR at +226 on Pinnacle.

• Recommendation: Alonso’s power combined with Coors Field’s conditions makes this a high-value pick.

The Gunnar Henderson Bomb (Baltimore Orioles)

• Henderson has shown slightly better power than Báez but still lacks consistency. Over his last 5 games, he has hit a home run in 20% of games. Over his last 10, 15, and 20 games, his hit rates are 10%, 6.67%, and 10%, respectively.

• For the 2025 season, Henderson has hit 8 home runs in 58 games, equating to a 13.79% hit rate.

• As a visitor, his home run hit rate drops to 9.38% (3 home runs in 32 games).

  • Betting Line:

    • Over 0.5 Home Runs: +340 at FanDuel

    • Under 0.5 Home Runs: -400 at BetMGM

  • Recommendation:

    While Henderson has slightly better odds of hitting a home run than Báez, his recent trends and matchup history suggest the Under 0.5 Home Runs at -400 is the more reliable option. The Over at +340 could be worth a small wager for those seeking higher risk and reward.

The Honorable Mentions!

Javier Báez - Detroit Tigers

• Over 0.5 Home Runs: +700 at BetMGM

Addison Barger - Blue Jays

• Odds: Over 0.5 HR at +350 on FanDuel.

Cal Raleigh - Seattle Mariners

• Odds: Over 0.5 HR at +220 on BetRivers.