UFC 316 Best Bets & Props: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley 6/7/25

Alright fight fans, buckle up! UFC 316 is on deck, and you know what that means: it's time to dig deep for those prop bets that'll make your wallet sing. We've gone all-in, crunching the numbers and dissecting every storyline to bring you the absolute top value plays. Forget the noise, these picks are backed by serious research, offering you some prime opportunities to cash in big.

UFC 316 FIGHT PROPS

Sean O'Malley to Win by KO/TKO (+575)

Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley

• Analysis: O'Malley is a dangerous striker with a significant reach advantage (72" vs. 68") and a higher significant strike accuracy (61% vs. 42%). While Dvalishvili dominated their first fight with relentless grappling, O'Malley showed flashes of brilliance, particularly in the fifth round, landing damaging body kicks. O'Malley has the power to finish fights early, as six of his last seven wins have come by stoppage.

• Value: At +575, this line offers excellent value for a fighter with O'Malley’s striking pedigree and ability to capitalize on moments of vulnerability.

Kayla Harrison to Win by Decision (+235)

Co-Main Event: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison

• Analysis: Harrison is a dominant grappler with an Olympic judo background, averaging 2.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, her recent fights have shown a tendency to conserve energy, going the distance in four of her last seven bouts. Peña, while tough and aggressive, has a poor takedown defense (23%) and is likely to spend much of the fight on her back.

• Value: Harrison’s odds to win outright are heavily juiced at -750, but her decision line at +235 provides a more lucrative option, especially given her recent trend of grinding out victories.

Joe Pyfer to Win by KO/TKO (+150)

Fight: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

• Analysis: Pyfer is a powerful striker with a 1.56 knockdown rate and a size advantage over Gastelum (5" height and 4" reach). Gastelum has never been knocked out but has absorbed significant damage throughout his career. Pyfer’s aggressive style and finishing ability make him a strong candidate to hand Gastelum his first KO loss.

• Value: At +150, this prop offers solid value for a fighter with Pyfer’s knockout potential against a veteran with a declining chin.

Patchy Mix to Win by Submission (+200)

Fight: Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix

• Analysis: Mix is a submission specialist with 13 career wins via submission. He has a clear grappling advantage over Bautista, who is more comfortable in striking exchanges. Mix’s ability to control opponents on the ground and hunt for chokes makes this a high-probability outcome.

• Value: At +200, this line is appealing for a fighter with Mix’s elite grappling credentials and finishing ability.

Joo Sang Yoo to Win by KO/TKO/Submission (-165)

Fight: Joo Sang Yoo vs. Jeka Saragih

• Analysis: Yoo is an undefeated prospect with superior grappling and striking skills. Saragih has shown weaknesses in both areas, including a recent submission loss. Yoo’s aggressive style and technical superiority make a finish highly likely.

• Value: While the odds are shorter, -165 is still a strong value for a fighter expected to dominate and finish the fight.

Summary Confidence Ratings and Probability Analysis

Sean O'Malley to Win by KO/TKO (+575)

• Implied Probability: 14.8%

• Estimated Probability: 20%

• Confidence Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Kayla Harrison to Win by Decision (+235)

• Implied Probability: 29.9%

• Estimated Probability: 40%

• Confidence Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Joe Pyfer to Win by KO/TKO (+150)

• Implied Probability: 40%

• Estimated Probability: 50%

• Confidence Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Patchy Mix to Win by Submission (+200)

• Implied Probability: 33.3%

• Estimated Probability: 45%

• Confidence Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Joo Sang Yoo to Win by KO/TKO/Submission (-165)

• Implied Probability: 62.3%

• Estimated Probability: 70%

• Confidence Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️