Top MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Today (June 11, 2025)

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The Aaron Judge Bomb

(New York Yankees)

• Matchup: Facing Kris Bubic (LHP) at Kauffman Stadium.

• Batter vs. Pitcher History: Judge has excelled against Bubic, going 5-for-8 with a double and a home run, slugging an impressive 1.125.

• Slugging Rate: Judge boasts a .422 batting average against left-handed pitching in 2025, making this a favorable matchup.

• Recent Form: Over the last 10 games, Judge has hit the over on this prop 40% of the time, with a mean of 0.6 home runs per game.

• Odds: Over 0.5 home runs at +215 on Pinnacle.

The Jonathan Aranda Bomb (Tampa Bay Rays)

• Recent Trends:

  • Aranda has struggled to hit home runs recently, with a 0% hit rate in his last 5 and 10 games.

  • Over the last 15 games, he has hit the over just 6.67% of the time, averaging 0.07 home runs per game.

  • Against the Red Sox in 2025, he has a 20% hit rate for home runs (1 in 5 games).

• Season Performance:

  • Aranda has a 11.29% hit rate for home runs this season, averaging 0.11 home runs per game.

• Odds:

  • Over 0.5 Home Runs: +517 at Pinnacle.

  • Under 0.5 Home Runs: -650 at BetMGM.

• Recommendation: While the odds for the over are enticing, Aranda's recent and season-long struggles make this a risky bet. The under is the safer play.

The Kerry Carpenter Bomb (Detroit Tigers)

• Recent Trends:

  • Carpenter has hit the over in 0% of his last 5 games and 10% of his last 10 games.

  • Over the last 15 games, his hit rate is 6.67%, averaging 0.2 home runs per game.

• Season Performance:

  • Carpenter has a 16.13% hit rate for home runs this season, averaging 0.21 home runs per game.

  • Against the Orioles in 2025, he has not hit a home run in 5 games.

• Odds:

  • Over 0.5 Home Runs: +346 at Pinnacle.

  • Under 0.5 Home Runs: -450 at BetMGM.

• Recommendation: Carpenter's lack of recent success and poor performance against the Orioles make the under the safer bet.

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The Honorable Mentions!

Carson Kelly (Chicago Cubs)

• Over 0.5 Home Runs: +563 at Pinnacle.

Matt Wallner (Minnesota Twins)

• Odds: Over 0.5 home runs at +350 on FanDuel.

Manny Machado (San Diego Padres)

• Odds: Over 0.5 home runs at +340 on FanDuel

Heliot Ramos (San Francisco Giants)

• No Link Found for his prop but Go to DK!