UFC 317 Best Bets & Props TOPURIA VS OLIVEIRA 6/28/25

Get ready for a massive night of fights at UFC 317! We've got an epic main event with Ilia Topuria battling Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title, plus Alexandre Pantoja is defending his flyweight belt against Kai Kara-France. I've broken down all the top bets and props for you below, with odds, analysis, and my personal recommendations.

Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira

• Odds:

  • Ilia Topuria: -400

  • Charles Oliveira: +300

Best Bets:

• Topuria to Win by TKO/KO (-175)

  • Analysis: Topuria’s striking is elite, as evidenced by his knockouts of Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway. Oliveira has been dropped in four of his last six fights, making him vulnerable to Topuria’s power. Topuria’s ability to control range and land devastating combinations makes this a strong pick.

• Fight to End Under 3.5 Rounds (-200)

  • Analysis: Both fighters are finishers. Oliveira holds the UFC record for most finishes, while Topuria’s aggressive style often leads to early stoppages. This fight is unlikely to go the distance.

• Oliveira to Win by Submission (+450)

  • Analysis: If Oliveira can drag the fight to the mat, his world-class jiu-jitsu gives him a legitimate path to victory. Topuria’s defensive grappling is solid, but Oliveira’s submission game is unparalleled.

Co-Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France

• Odds:

  • Alexandre Pantoja: -265

  • Kai Kara-France: +215

Best Bets:

• Pantoja to Win by Submission (+150)

  • Analysis: Pantoja’s relentless pressure and grappling are his biggest weapons. He’s landed 26 takedowns in his last four title fights and has a proven ability to secure submissions. Kara-France’s 88% takedown defense is solid but hasn’t been tested against someone of Pantoja’s caliber.

• Fight to Go Over 2.5 Rounds (-120)

  • Analysis: Kara-France’s striking and takedown defense could extend the fight into the later rounds, even if Pantoja eventually secures a finish.

• Pantoja to Win (-265)

  • Analysis: Pantoja’s well-rounded skill set and championship experience make him the clear favorite. His ability to dictate the pace and control the fight on the ground gives him a significant edge.

Other Main Card Fights

Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van

• Odds:

  • Brandon Royval: -125

  • Joshua Van: +105

• Royval to Win by Decision (+200)

  • Analysis: Royval’s striking and grappling make him a tough matchup for Van. While Van’s pace and durability are impressive, Royval’s experience against top-tier competition gives him the edge in a three-round fight.

• Fight to Go the Distance (+120)

  • Analysis: Both fighters are durable and capable of surviving each other’s offensive flurries. This could turn into a high-paced striking battle that goes the distance.

    
    

Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

• Odds:

  • Renato Moicano: -162

  • Beneil Dariush: +136

• Fight Not to Go the Distance (-150)

  • Analysis: Both fighters have finishing ability, but they also share vulnerabilities. Dariush has been stopped in his last two fights, while Moicano’s aggressive style leaves him open to counters.

• Dariush to Win (+136)

  • Analysis: Dariush’s power and offensive wrestling give him multiple paths to victory. If he can avoid Moicano’s grappling exchanges, he has a strong chance to pull off the upset.

    
    

Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima

• Odds:

  • Felipe Lima: -180

  • Payton Talbott: +155

• Lima to Win by Decision (+120)

  • Analysis: Lima’s wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu are likely to neutralize Talbott’s striking. While Talbott has shown promise, his takedown defense remains a concern.

• Fight to Go the Distance (-110)

  • Analysis: Both fighters are durable, and Lima’s control on the ground could lead to a decision victory.