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Betting Around the Bubble

When taking a look at tonight's slate of games, one thing that's always important to keep in mind is what potential stakes there are for the teams competing. Yes teams are obviously trying to win each game they play, but these are college kids we're talking about, so expect a little extra intensity from teams in must win situations, and maybe less so from teams with little to play for.

As a Bracketologist, I think there's a lot of value in knowing where teams currently stand when betting for or against them. With all that in mind, here are a few of my favorite plays tonight given what's on the line for the teams in question.

Nebraska (-1.5) at Indiana.

The Cornhuskers are in potentially a must win situation tonight at Indiana. As one my my last 4 teams in the field, they can ill afford another Q2 loss. Nebraska is a significantly better team than the Hoosiers, but the line is understandably low given their road struggles so far this season. However, I think the stakes of the game for Nebraska, and the fact that Indiana has nothing much left to play for at this point, will significantly mitigate the home advantage for IU. Take Nebraska to cover.

New Mexico (-6.5) vs Colorado State

Except for one game vs Boise State (which had major implications for the Broncos) the Lobos have been one of the best teams at home in college basketball this season. Even if this game meant nothing for them, I still think this line would seem low given how much better they play in The Pit, and how much their opponents Colorado State have struggled on the road relative to how good they've been otherwise. Add to it that New Mexico is sitting at a 9 seed currently, and would very likely drop back to the bubble with a loss, I expect New Mexico to roll in this one. Take UNM to cover with ease against the Rams, who are in a good spot regardless of tonight's result.

Bonus Parlay: Cincinnati, St. John's, Drake & Indiana State ALL to win. (-135)

This one's simple, all four of these teams are hefty favorites tonight for a reason, they're the significantly better team. And usually any time a team loses a game in a spot like this, it's because they simply played down to the level of their opponent. What these teams have in common though is that they are all VERY much on the bubble, and know that a loss tonight could end their at-large hopes entirely. Expect a full effort from these squads this evening which should be enough to keep all of them off upset alert.


Written by - Bracket Dom

@BracketDom on X

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Amazing Work Dom!! Love the layout and the easy flow of the article & read!

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