Top NFL Anytime Touchdown Props: Week 18 1/4/25
- Lee Shipley
- 3 days ago
- 4 min read
The regular season is hitting its fever pitch this Sunday, January 4th, 2026, and Week 18 is shaping up to be a wild ride. While this final week is notoriously volatile, it’s also the perfect time to find predictable volume as star players chase playoff berths and career milestones.
To help you navigate the chaos, we’ve teamed up with Pine Sports AI to bring you the ultimate edge. I’ve crunched the red zone efficiency metrics, analyzed the biggest defensive mismatches, and synthesized the latest injury reports to deliver your definitive touchdown guide for the Sunday slate.
Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons vs. NO Saints
Recommendation: Bijan RobinsonAnytime Touchdown
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bijan Robinson has evolved into the undisputed engine of the Atlanta Falcons' offense as they head into this divisional clash. Over his last five games, Robinson has found the end zone in 80% of contests, maintaining a season mean of 0.69 touchdowns per game. His efficiency is even more pronounced when playing at home, where he has hit the over on this prop in 71.43% of his games during the 2025-2026 campaign.
The statistical backing for Robinson in the red zone is elite. He ranks 6th among all running backs in total carries (272) and 2nd in targets (100), proving he is a threat both on the ground and through the air. Specifically, inside the 10-yard line, Robinson has seen 18 carries this season, and his 830 receiving yards after catch rank 1st at his position, highlighting his ability to turn a short dump-off into a score.
The matchup against the Saints is favorable. New Orleans enters this game with significant defensive gaps, and their defense vs. position rank for running backs sits at a mediocre 17th. More importantly, the Saints' offense is decimated with Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave both ruled OUT. This likely leads to a lopsided time of possession favoring Atlanta, giving Robinson more opportunities to punch it in.
My Pick: Bijan Robinson Anytime TD
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Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Recommendation: Tee HigginsAnytime Touchdown
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tee Higgins is currently playing some of the best football of his career, hitting the over on his touchdown prop in 70% of his last 10 games. While the Bengals' offense has had its ups and downs, Higgins remains a primary red zone target, especially with his massive frame and 89 targets on the season. He currently ranks 3rd among wide receivers with 10 receiving touchdowns this year.
The matchup against the Cleveland Browns is a statistical mismatch of epic proportions. The Browns' defense has been a sieve in the passing game, ranking dead last (32nd) in passing touchdowns allowed per game (2.06).
They also rank 30th in defensive DVOA, indicating a complete lack of efficiency in stopping high-powered passing attacks. Higgins has historically feasted on this secondary, boasting a 100% hit rate for touchdowns against Cleveland in his 2024 matchups.
With the Bengals ranking 4th in the league in passing touchdowns (2.06 per game), the volume will be there. Cleveland's inability to tackle (ranking 32nd in missed tackles) also suggests that if Higgins catches a ball near the goal line, he is highly likely to break a tackle and score.
My Pick: Tee Higgins Anytime TD
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Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Recommendation: Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jahmyr Gibbs is the definition of "lightning in a bottle" for the Detroit Lions. As they travel to Soldier Field, Gibbs brings a season mean of 1.06 touchdowns per game. He has been incredibly consistent against the Bears, hitting the over in 100% of his 2025 matchups against them. His role in the Lions' 10th-ranked DVOA offense is secure, particularly in the red zone where he has logged 51 carries this season.
The Bears defense, while improved, struggles significantly against the run, allowing 135.31 rushing yards per game (28th in the NFL). They also rank 29th in yards per carry allowed (5.03). This is a nightmare scenario against Gibbs, who averages 5.1 yards per carry and ranks 4th in receiving EPA among running backs. His dual-threat capability makes him nearly impossible to account for inside the 5-yard line, where he has already recorded 4 rushing touchdowns this season.
Detroit’s offensive line is the catalyst here. The Lions rank 2nd in total plays per game (65.69) and 3rd in rushing yards (149.12). Gibbs will get the touches necessary to find the paint, whether it's a breakaway run or a designed screen pass in the red zone.
My Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD
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RJ Harvey | Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Recommendation: RJ Harvey Anytime Touchdown
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
RJ Harvey has been on an absolute tear recently, hitting the over on his touchdown prop in 100% of his last five games. He has become the focal point of the Broncos' rushing attack, averaging 1.2 touchdowns per game over that span. His season mean of 0.75 is solid, but his recent form suggests he is the "hot hand" in Denver.
The Chargers defense is respectable, but they rank 10th in defense vs. position for running backs, which is far from impenetrable. Denver's offense has been efficient, ranking 13th in offensive DVOA and 7th in third-down conversion rate (42.86%). This ability to sustain drives is crucial for Harvey, as it provides him with more opportunities in the red zone, where he has already logged 25 carries this season.
Harvey is also a significant threat in the passing game, ranking 3rd among running backs in receiving EPA (22.93) and 4th in receiving touchdowns (5). This versatility makes him a nightmare for the Chargers to defend in goal-to-go situations.
My Pick: RJ Harvey Anytime TD
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