Peach Bowl Semifinal: #5 Oregon Ducks vs. #1 Indiana Hoosiers Best Bets
- Lee Shipley
- 20 minutes ago
- 4 min read
Get ready, because the College Football Playoff semifinals are finally here! Tomorrow night at 7:30 p.m. ET, all eyes will be on Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium for a massive rematch between the Oregon Ducks and the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers.
Both teams are coming in hot after dominant shutouts in the quarters, but there’s some serious history here—Indiana already handed Oregon their only loss of the season back in October. With a spot in the National Championship on the line, the Ducks are looking for revenge while the Hoosiers aim to keep their perfect season alive. It’s going to be electric.
💰 Best Bets & Detailed
Game Analysis:
📰 Critical News & Injury’s:
Oregon Backfield Crisis: Freshman sensation Jordon Davison is officially OUT. With Jayden Limar and Makhi Hughes in the transfer portal, the Ducks are dangerously thin at RB. If Noah Whittington (Questionable) cannot go or is limited, the Ducks will rely on freshman Dierre Hill Jr., who struggled in the first matchup against IU.
Indiana Defensive Health: While Indiana will be without defensive linemen Stephen Daley and Kellan Wyatt, their core secondary and linebacker units, led by Rolland Hardy, are healthy. Daley's absence is notable (5.5 sacks), but the Hoosiers' depth has been a strength all year.
Quarterback Battle: This game features two of the top NFL prospects in Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore. Mendoza is currently the heavy favorite (-500) to be the #1 overall pick. In their October meeting, Moore struggled with 2 interceptions, while Mendoza was more poised under pressure.
1️⃣ The Indiana Hoosiers -3.5
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Pick: Indiana -3.5 -110
Indiana has been the most consistent team in the country, and their performance against Alabama in the Rose Bowl proved they belong at the top. The Hoosiers defense is the backbone of this team, ranking second in the FBS by allowing just 10.3 points per game. In the first meeting, Indiana's defensive front overwhelmed Oregon, recording 6 sacks and winning the turnover battle 2-1.
Oregon is facing significant personnel issues in the backfield. Leading rusher Jordon Davison (15 TDs) is OUT with a broken clavicle. Furthermore, backup Noah Whittington is listed as questionable, and other depth pieces like Jayden Limar have entered the transfer portal. Without a reliable ground game, Oregon becomes one-dimensional, allowing Indiana’s elite pass rush to pin its ears back and pressure Dante Moore. Indiana is also the fresher team, having enjoyed a first-round bye, while Oregon is traveling coast-to-coast for the second consecutive week.
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2️⃣ Indiana / Oregon Under 48.5
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Pick: Under 48.5 -110
While both teams have high-scoring season averages, their defensive units have reached an elite level during the playoffs. Indiana has allowed more than 20 points only twice all season and just held Alabama to a single field goal. Oregon’s defense is equally formidable, ranking third nationally in yards per pass allowed and coming off a shutout of Texas Tech.
The rematch factor historically favors the defense, as coaching staffs make adjustments to neutralize what worked in the first meeting. Oregon’s offensive injuries, specifically the loss of Davison and star receiver Evan Stewart (who remains OUT), suggest they will struggle to find the end zone consistently. In a high-pressure playoff environment, expect a physical, ball-control style of play that keeps the scoring low.
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3️⃣ Indiana Hoosiers Moneyline
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Pick: Indiana Moneyline (-178)
If you want to avoid the hook on the 3.5-point spread, the moneyline is a very safe play for the Hoosiers. Indiana is 14-0 for a reason; they have the Big Ten Player of the Year in Fernando Mendoza, who has thrown for 3,172 yards and 36 touchdowns. Mendoza was efficient in the first meeting (215 yards, 1 TD) and has shown the ability to perform against top-tier defenses like Ohio State and Penn State.
The coaching matchup also leans toward Indiana. Curt Cignetti has a 25-2 record over the last two years and has consistently won the battle at the line of scrimmage. Oregon’s offensive line struggled significantly in the first meeting, allowing those 6 sacks. Unless Oregon has made drastic schematic changes to their pass protection, Indiana’s defensive front will likely dictate the outcome of this game once again.
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🎯 Player Prop Insights:
Fernando Mendoza (Indiana): His passing yards line is set at 208.5. He has exceeded this mark in 4 games against quality defenses (Iowa, Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State), averaging 222 yards in those contests.
Dante Moore (Oregon): His line is 216.5. He threw for only 186 yards in the first meeting while being sacked 6 times. If Indiana's pass rush remains effective, the Under on this prop is highly appealing.
Dierre Hill Jr. (Oregon): With Davison out, Hill's rushing line is 32.5. He will see increased volume, but he faces an Indiana defense that allows only 2.8 yards per carry.
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