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Betting Around the Bubble

When taking a look at a slate of games, one thing that's always important to keep in mind is what potential stakes there are for the teams competing. Yes teams are obviously trying to win each game they play, but these are college kids we're talking about, so expect a little extra intensity from teams in must win situations, and maybe less so from teams with little to play for.

As a Bracketologist, I think there's a lot of value in knowing where teams currently stand when betting for or against them. With all that in mind, here are my 5 favorite plays today given what's on the line for the teams in question.

Wake Forest (-2) vs Duke

The Demon Deacons come in to this game as one of the first 4 teams out of the field, knowing that a Q1 win over the Blue Devils would almost certainly see them move to the right side of the bubble. Wake's loss to Virginia appears to have woken something up in their team, now fighting for their tournament lives the Deacs absolutely crushed Pitt at home in one of their best performances of the season. I fully expect that momentum to carry over against a Duke team that's already locked into the field. Pick Wake to cover with confidence.

Ole Miss (-3.5) vs South Carolina

The Running Rebels are still in the field as of this morning, but they're certainly trending in the wrong. direction. Lose again today and they be out of the field completely. With their season on the line against a South Carolina team that's safely in the field but probably not as good as their record indicates, look for Ole Miss to capitalize on this huge opportunity and run away with this game in front of their home crowd. Take Ole Miss to cover or use even their moneyline in a parlay.

UNLV (+1) vs Colorado State

The Runnin' Rebels may not have much hope left of an at-large, but they're a trendy pick to be a bid thief for a reason, and will look to continue their late season momentum against a Rams team who has struggled to close games out on the road. CSU is still safely in the field, so I don't expect them to up their road game performance any more than usual. UNLV should probably be an outright favorite in this one, so jump on them getting points at home while you still can.

Mississippi State (-2.5) @ LSU

This one is simple, Mississippi State is the much better team in a massive game for their tournament hopes. The only reason this line is so low is that the Tigers are coming off of a thrilling upset over Kentucky. But that win is not indicative of how poor LSU has been at times this year, and I don't think they're anywhere near consistent enough to pull off two consecutive home upsets. Mississippi State covers today and may do so with ease.

Drake (-1.5) @ Northern Iowa

This line seems surprisingly low. The Bulldogs beat UNI with ease the first time around, and their performance on the road in the last month has been just as efficient as at home. Also, Drake absolutely has to have this game if they want to keep any hopes alive for an at-large. With all that in mind Drake is a great play to cover here, or take the moneyline if you don't want to mess around with the chance they win by 1.


Written by - Bracket Dom

                     @BracketDom on X


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