No. 3 Houston Cougars (26-4, 18-1 Big 12) on a nine-game road winning streak visit the Baylor Bears (18-12, 10-9 Big 12) at Foster Pavilion on Saturday, March 8, 2025. The game starts at 10 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.
Houston is a 4.5-point favorite in the game, the over/under is set at 130.5 points. The Cougars continued their dominance in Big 12 action, grabbing the best record in the conference, while Baylor has had more hits than misses but is always a tough home matchup.
Betting Trends and Key Stats
Houston is 16-14 against the spread (ATS) in 2022, although they are only 13-14 ATS when favored by 4.5 points or more. Baylor, by contrast, has pain a pitiful price with its past as an underdog, running 0-6 ATS when 4.5 points or extra.
But the total points line of 130.5 is a little low given that the two teams combine to average 151.8 points a game, more than 21 points more than the total offered. But both defenses know how to limit the scoring: Houston and Baylor’s opponents this season have averaged a combined 127.5 points per game.
Houston Cougars: Rounding Into Elite Defense
The Cougars have one of the nation’s top defenses, giving up only 58.0 points per game, best in college basketball. They beat teams by an average of 16.5 points per game and have a +494 scoring differential on the season.
The Cougars are highly efficient on both ends of the floor, shooting 39.6 percent from three-point range, fourth best in the nation. LJ Cryer is the team’s leading scorer, averaging 15.0 points per game, and J’wan Roberts tops the team in rebounds at 6.3 per game. Milos Uzan has been the main playmaker, averaging 4.4 assists per game.
Houston’s defense is stifling, giving up only 31.6% shooting from deep while forcing 1.4 steals per game thanks to Emanuel Sharp. Joseph Tugler also protects the paint with an average of 2.0 blocks per game.
Baylor Bears: Strong at Home but Facing Tough Test
On offense, Baylor has done all right, averaging 77.3 points per game, good for 90th in the country. But their defense has been inconsistent, yielding 69.5 points per game, which ranks 100th in the country.
The Bears have a +233 score differential, in large part thanks to Norchad Omier, who averages a double-double with 15.7 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. Robert O. Wright III paces the team in assists at 4.5 per game, and Jayden Nunn is Baylor’s best 3-point shooter at 1.9 triples per game.
A major thing working in Baylor’s favor is the fact that the game will be played at home. The Bears average 15 more points at home (84.1 PPG) compared to on the road (69.1 PPG), a trend they will hope to continue against a Houston defense that is among the best in the league.
Prediction and Final Thoughts
Houston has been generally worshiped all season, not least on the defensive end, and its ability to dictate the tempo, therefore, will be critical against a daydream-generating brimstone varietal such as Baylor. Baylor has been great at home, but they have shown signs of struggle against elite defenses and Houston’s shot-competitive prowess can be the difference.
Final Prediction:
Spread Pick: Houston (-4.5)
Projected Total Points: Over (130.5)
Score Prediction: Houston 73, Baylor 67
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