Miami Hurricanes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes | CFP Quarterfinal Best Bets
- Lee Shipley
- Dec 31, 2025
- 3 min read
The stage is set for a massive New Year's Eve clash in the Cotton Bowl as the No. 10 Miami Hurricanestake on the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes! This CFP quarterfinal matchup at AT&T Stadium features a historic rivalry and a battle between two of the nation's most elite defensive units.
Ohio State enters as a heavy favorite despite a narrow 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship. Meanwhile, Miami is riding high after a gritty 10-3 road win over Texas A&M in the opening round. With a trip to the Fiesta Bowl on the line, expect a physical, low-scoring "rock fight" in Arlington.
Game Information &
Matchup Analysis
Matchup Breakdown:
The Defensive Wall: This game features the lowest total of the quarterfinal slate (40.5) for a reason. Ohio State’s defense, led by Matt Patricia, has allowed double-digit points only five times in 13 games. Miami’s defense has been equally stifling lately, holding three of their last four opponents to single digits.
The Pass Rush Factor: Miami boasts the second-best pass rush in the nation. Edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor will look to exploit an Ohio State offensive line that allowed five sacks in their last outing. If they can pressure Heisman finalist Julian Sayin, they can disrupt the Buckeyes' explosive passing game.
Ground Control: Miami's Mark Fletcher Jr.is coming off a career-high 172 scrimmage yards against Texas A&M. Ohio State will counter with true freshman sensation Bo Jackson, who recently surpassed 1,000 rushing yards. The team that can stay "on schedule" and avoid third-and-longs against these elite defenses will have the edge.
Best Bets for Miami vs. Ohio State | Cotton Bowl
1. Game Total: Under 41.5 Points
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is my strongest play for the Cotton Bowl. We are looking at the two most dominant defenses in the country. Ohio State ranks 1st in scoring defense (8.2 PPG), and Miami ranks 6th (13.8 PPG).
Statistical Backing:
Recent Trends: Miami’s last game ended with a total of 13 points (10-3 win). Ohio State’s last game ended with a total of 23 points (13-10 loss).
Season Hit Rates: The Buckeyes are 9-4 to the Under this season, while the Hurricanes are 8-5 to the Under
Matchup Context: Both teams excel at limiting explosive plays. Miami is the only team in the country that hasn't allowed a touchdown of over 40 yards. With both units fresh and scripts likely leaning conservative early, points will be at a premium.
The Pick: Under 41.5 (-115)
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2. Point Spread: Miami Hurricanes +9.5 -115
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While Ohio State is the more complete team, 9.5 points is a massive spread in a game where the total is only 40.5. In low-scoring environments, every point is magnified, making the underdog very attractive.
Statistical Backing:
Defensive Consistency: Miami has held five straight opponents to 17 points or fewer. If they hold Ohio State to under 20 points—which they are capable of doing—covering 9.5 becomes highly probable.
Advanced Metrics: Action Network projects this spread closer to a touchdown. Miami ranks 8th in defensive SP+ and possesses the nation's best pass rush, which can neutralize Ohio State's talent advantage at receiver.
Special Teams Edge: Miami ranks 12th in Special Teams SP+, while Ohio State sits at 63rd. In a defensive struggle, field position and kicking efficiency (where Miami excels) often decide the cover.
The Pick: Miami +9.5 (-110)
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