Music City Bowl Best Bets: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini 12/30/25
- Lee Shipley
- Dec 30, 2025
- 2 min read
The 2025 Music City Bowl features a first-time-ever matchup on the gridiron between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Illinois Fighting Illini. Taking place at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, this game serves as a quasi-home game for the Volunteers, who are looking to secure their fourth consecutive nine-win season—a feat they haven't accomplished since the late 90s. Meanwhile, Bret Bielema’s Illini are hunting for their own piece of history, seeking back-to-back nine-win seasons for the first time in
program history.
💰Best Bets &
Detailed Analysis
Tennessee Volunteers Moneyline
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Recommendation: Take the Tennessee Volunteers Moneyline at -157.
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Analysis:
Tennessee enters this game with a massive situational advantage. Playing in Nashville effectively turns this into a home game, with "Big Orange" expected to fill the vast majority of the 69,143 seats. Statistically, the Volunteers have been the superior team throughout the season, ranking 8th nationally in scoring (40.8 PPG) and 15th in total offense (482.0 YPG).
While the line has moved significantly toward Illinois (opening at -6.5 and dropping to -3.5), much of this is due to opt-outs.
However, Tennessee still retains key offensive firepower, including quarterback Joey Aguilar, who is expected to play. The Vols have been dominant in non-conference play under Josh Heupel, going 18-6 ATS in such games since 2021. Public betting data shows a staggering 94% of moneyline tickets are on Tennessee, and while following the public can be risky, the talent gap and venue advantage here are too significant to ignore.
Don’t just watch the game,
Own the outcome.
The Game Total: Over 61.5
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Recommendation: Take the Over 61.5 Total Points at -110.
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Analysis:
Despite public sentiment leaning toward the Under (82.97% of bets), the statistical profile of this matchup screams "shootout." Both teams are missing critical defensive starters due to NFL Draft opt-outs and transfer portal entries. Tennessee’s defense, which already struggled at times in the secondary (ranking 117th in passing yards allowed), will be even more vulnerable.
On the other side, Illinois QB Luke Altmyer leads a highly efficient passing attack that ranks top-20 in PPA per pass. With Tennessee's leading receiver Chris Brazzell II out, the Vols will likely lean on their 7th-ranked third-down conversion rate (50.3%) to keep drives alive. Historically, when these two high-powered offenses meet depleted defenses in a bowl setting, points come in bunches. The last time Tennessee played in this specific bowl, they put up 45 points themselves.
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