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MLB Picks by Hardee Picks 4/4/24


MLB Slate, Pitching Matchups, and Outlook

This is the first time we see a small slate in the MLB this season. A day that only had 4 scheduled games adds 2 more to the slate with the double header between Detroit and the Mets. In addition, all across this board is Starting Pitchers who dominated their opener to the year versus a Starting Pitcher who got lit up! We will take a dive into these games and discuss where our money should be going.


  • DET Tigers (4-0) vs NY Mets (0-4) Game 1

    • Casey Mize vs Adrian Houser

      • Both pitchers making their first start of the season.


  • DET Tigers vs NY Mets Game 2

    • Matt Manning vs Undecided

      • Manning is making his season opener today.


  • PIT Pirates (5-0) vs WSH Nationals (1-3)

    • Martin Perez vs Josiah Gray

      • Perez went 4.1 innings giving up 6 hits and 1 ER versus the Miami Marlins in his no decision. He had 3 strikeouts and 2 walks as well in the outing posting a 2.08 ERA and WHIP. Perez lone run came in the 3rd inning once the lineup turned over. He gave up 2 walks and 2 hits that drove in the run. This Nats roster is batting .333 against him going 7-21, but no home runs and only 2 RBIs

      • Gray went 4 innings, giving up 8 hits, 7 ER, and 2 HRs in his loss to the Reds. He did have 6 strikeouts in that outing and 2 walks. He posted a 15.75 ERA and a 2.50 WHIP. Gray got pieced up in both the 2nd and 3rd innings. In the 2nd, he gave up 5 hits, 2 of which went for extra bases, 1 stolen base, 3 ER, and only 1 strikeout. In the 3rd inning, he gave up 3 hits that all went for extra bases, 1 walk, and 4 ER. He did manage to strikeout 2 in the inning. Gray is allowing a .182 batting average against this Pirates roster, with them going 6-33, but 2 home runs and 4 RBIs.

    • Both pitchers cruised in the first inning facing 7 batters combined, having 1 walk, 1 man reach on an error, and 2 strikeouts.


  • CLE Guardians (5-2) vs MIN Twins (3-2)

    • Tanner Bibee vs Pablo Lopez

      • Bibee got a no decision versus the Athletics. He went 4 innings, giving up 6 hits, 5 walks, and 3 ER. He posted a 6.75 ERA and a 2.75 WHIP. He also struck out 4 batters. His 1st inning included 2 strike outs, and 1 ground rule double. This Twins team is only batting .194 against him going 6-31 with only 2 extra base hits and 12 strikeouts.

      • Lopez looked sharp in his opener, getting the win in a game versus the Royals. He went 7 innings, giving up 4 hits, 0 walks, 1 ER on a home run, and struck out 7. The home run came from the very first batter he faced. Even more impressive, he never gave up 2 or more hits in any inning. We shall see if he has the same success against this team who has managed to bat .375 against him going 24-64 with 6 extra base hits.


  • MIA Marlins (0-7) vs STL Cardinals (3-3)

    • Ryan Weathers vs Lance Lynn

      • Weathers got the loss in his first outing versus the Pirates. He went 4 innings, giving up 7 hits, 3 ER, 2 BBs, and 5 Ks. He pitched very well thee first time through the lineup giving up 1 hit, 1 walk, 0 runs, and recorded 3 strikeouts. The second and third time through he got touched up. He gave up 6 hits, 3. runs, 1 walk, and 1 hit by pitch. This St. Louis team is 4-16 against Weathers with 2 home runs.

      • Lynn looked like a revived man against the Dodgers in his opener. He went 4 inning, gave up 4 hits, 1 walk, 0 runs, while recording 5 Ks. He battled out of a bases loaded jam in 1st, and excelled the rest of the way. This Marlins team is batting .245 against Lynn going 26-106.


  • CHW White Sox (1-4) vs KC Royals (2-3)

    • Michael Soroka vs Seth Lugo

      • Soroka recorded a no decision in his opener going 5 innings, giving up 7 hits, 4 ER, 3 BBs, but did not strike out even 1 batter against the Tigers. His worst inning was the 1st, where he gave up 3 runs, 4 hits, 1 BB, and 1 stolen base. The only other run he gave up came on a solo home run in the 5th.

      • Lugo got a no decision versus the Twins in his opener going 6 inning, gave up 0 runs, 2 hits, 1 walk, and recorded 4 Ks.



Best Bets

  • KC First 5 -0.5 (-128 on FD)

    • This pitching matchup really favors the Royals. I will ride with the team who just won the first 5 against the Orioles with Corbin Burnes on the bump.

  • STL Cardinals First 5 -0.5 (-130 on FD)

    • Lynn showed great work last outing against the best hitting team in the MLB this season so far. I think he continues well against the winless Marlins.



Player Props

  • CLE Andres Gimenez 2+ Total Bases (+140 on FD)

    • Gimenez is 3-5 in hitting this line this season, batting .346, only has 1 hitless game, and is 5-11 versus Pablo Lopez in his career with 2 doubles& only 1 K.

  • PIT Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-120 on DK)

    • Reynolds is red hot to start the year batting .286 with 8 hits, 8 RBIs, and 2 runs over 6 games. That is an average of 3 hits, runs, and RBIs per game. Against Gray, he is 4-8 with 2 singles, 1 double, 1 home run, and 3 RBIs.

  • MIN Carlos Correa Under 0.5 Hits (+125 on DK)

    • Correa only has 2 games with hits this season and has posted a 1 for 8 against Bibee with 4 Strikeouts.

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