Oct 26, 20233 min read

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills TNF - 10/26/23 Hardee Picks Predictions

- Game Info: Buccaneers (3-3) @ Bills (4-3) 8:15pm at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY

Both of these teams have been trending downwards as of late. The Buccaneers have lost 2 straight games after their bye-week and lost control of the NFC South after a home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The Bills squeaked out a win versus the Giants two weeks ago and now lost outright to the New England Patriots as an 8.5 point favorite. This game will boost either team in order for them to lessen the gap on the division leaders and right the ship.

The Buccaneers had a hot start going 3-1 going into their bye-week, but have dropped back-to-back games versus the Lions and Falcons. The Bucs were looking shaky, but after a good Wednesday injury report, there is some more hope. Both Chris Godwin and Baker Mayfield are questionable for this game, but both were full participants at practice on Wednesday, making them trending towards good to play. On the other side of ball, Vita Vea had another "Did Not Participate" on Wednesday, making him a true game time decision. The answer to a lot of this team's problems come on the defensive side of the ball. They are blitzing at the 4th highest rate, yet they are the 9th lowest team in pressure rate. Blitzing without getting to the QB is a recipe for opposing offenses to move the ball. Although they have the 3rd most turnovers and they only allow 22% red zone touchdown conversion rate, these stats are unsustainable when they are giving up the 7th most yards per drive. This team has very little time to right the ship before kickoff, and I will not be surprised if they can't.

The Bills have dropped 2 of their last 3 games and their win versus the Giants was extremely controversial. This team has been hit by the injury bug and it keeps going this week as well. Tre'Davious White, out for the season, DaQuan Jones, on IR, Matt Milano, on IR, and now Dawson Knox, who is out indefinitely after having wrist surgery. These are key losses and it has shown. Over the last two weeks, their defense has allowed the 3rd highest success rate against the pass and 15th highest success rate against the run. Just as a reminder of how bad that is, they played the Giants with Tyrod Taylor and the Mac Jones led Patriots in those two weeks. Although this is terrible statistically, they are still 5th in points against at only 16.9. This is mainly due to them having the 2nd highest amount of turnovers and having the 6th best red zone defense. As for this offense, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are still connecting at a high clip and James Cook and Latavius Murray are holding down the back field. This team has the high powered stars to score in bunches, as long as they avoid turnovers and penalties.

💎 Total Over 43

As long as the trend continues that Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin play, I don't see this total as hard to reach. The Bills offense is still averaging 28.3 PPG by themselves after 2 awful outings, and I think both defenses show their weaknesses here on a short weak. In addition, having two of the top three defenses in turnovers created allows for some big momentum plays and defensive scoring possibilities. Lastly, we should see an increase in kickoff returns as both place kickers are top 9 in kickoff return rate. With kickoffs ability for great field position for either team, I think this factors into the game and helps the over.

💎 Stefon Diggs Over 86.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Stefon Diggs is 5-2 over this mark this season and is 7-2 against the NFC since the beginning of last season. The Buccaneers have allowed the top WR to surpass this mark in 4 of the 6 games this year.