Today’s Top Homerun Props for MLB games on 8/8/25
- Lee Shipley
- Aug 8
- 6 min read
We are back with the DINGERZ article by popular demand! Here at the OutLet, we are transitioning into, but that don’t mean We have to stop with Baseball! I've been diving deep into today's MLB matchups to find the best home run props. I'm talking about looking at recent hitter performance, favorable pitcher matchups, and even park factors. A huge shoutout to Pine Sports AI JaXon for providing all the data and research that makes this possible. Lets get to work!
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Giancarlo Stanton Bomb (New York Yankees)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +450
Book: ESPN BET
Matchup & Analysis: Giancarlo Stanton is poised for a big night at Yankee Stadium against Houston Astros pitcher Hunter Brown. Stanton has consistently shown power recently, hitting the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last 20 games. He also has a strong track record against the Astros, hitting 3 home runs in 6 plate appearances against them in 2024. Yankee Stadium is one of the most home run-friendly parks in baseball, boasting a high HR factor of 121. Hunter Brown has allowed 2 home runs in 43 plate appearances against the current Yankees roster, including a home run to Aaron Judge. This combination of Stanton's power, his success against the opponent, and the favorable park makes this a compelling pick.
The Hunter Goodman Bomb (Colorado Rockies)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +425
Book: BetRivers
Matchup & Analysis: Hunter Goodman is a strong candidate to go deep tonight against Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen. Goodman has been hot, hitting the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last 5 games. He also has a direct home run off Gallen in their past encounters, going 2-for-6 with a homer. Gallen has struggled significantly at home this season, posting a 5.98 ERA, which is among the highest for qualified starting pitchers in MLB. He's also known to allow a high average exit velocity on batted balls. While Chase Field has a slightly pitcher-friendly HR factor of 90, its overall park factor of 104 suggests it can be a hitter-friendly environment, especially with a struggling pitcher on the mound.
The Shea Langeliers Bomb (Oakland Athletics)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +350
Book: ESPN BET
Matchup & Analysis: Shea Langelierspresents an intriguing home run opportunity tonight against the Baltimore Orioles. While his recent hit rate is 20% over his last 5 games, his performance against the Orioles in 2024 was exceptional, hitting 3 home runs in just 5 plate appearances, resulting in a 60% over hit rate against them. Oriole Park at Camden Yards is a home run-friendly venue with a HR factor of 108, which should benefit Langeliers' power stroke. This pick leans heavily on his past success against this specific opponent and the favorable park environment.
The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Bomb (Toronto Blue Jays)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +375
Book: BetMGM
Matchup & Analysis: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a strong contender to hit a home run tonight at Dodger Stadium against Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw. Dodger Stadium is an extremely home run-friendly park, boasting a massive HR factor of 129. Guerrero Jr. has shown decent recent form, hitting the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last 10 games. In a limited sample size against Kershaw, Guerrero Jr. is 1-for-1 with 2 walks, indicating he sees the ball well off the veteran lefty. This combination of a hitter-friendly park and a favorable individual matchup makes Guerrero Jr. a compelling choice.
Today’s Top LongShot Hitters!
The Ketel Marte Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +257
Book Link: Pinnacle
Recent Performance: Ketel Marte has not been hitting many home runs lately. He has hit the over on his home run prop in only 20% of his last 5 games, and just 10% over his last 10 and 20 games. His season average sits at 0.26 home runs per game.
Home Performance: When playing at home, his over hit rate for home runs is 20.51% over 39 games this season, with a mean of 0.23 home runs.
Vs. Opponent (Austin Gomber - Colorado Rockies): This is where it gets interesting. Marte has a strong historical record against Rockies pitcher Austin Gomber. In 28 plate appearances, Marte has collected 10 hits, including 3 home runs. He boasts an impressive .385 batting average and a .846 slugging percentage against Gomber, indicating he hits the ball hard and for power in this specific matchup.
🏟️ Park Factors (Chase Field):
Chase Field has a home run park factor of 90, meaning it's slightly less favorable for home runs than the average MLB park.
💰 Analysis for the Over:
Despite his recent overall trends and the slightly pitcher-friendly park, Ketel Marte's historical dominance against Austin Gomber is a significant factor. His ability to hit for power against this specific pitcher, evidenced by 3 home runs in 28 plate appearances, suggests he could capitalize on this individual matchup. If he gets multiple plate appearances against Gomber, the potential for a long ball increases.
The Ezequiel Tovar Bomb (Colorado Rockies)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +750
Book Link: Fanduel
Recent Performance: Ezequiel Tovarhas not hit a home run in his last 10 games, with a 0% over hit rate in his last 5 and 10 outings. His season average is a low 0.12 home runs per game.
Road Performance: As a visitor, his over hit rate for home runs is 12.0% over 25 games this season, with a mean of 0.12 home runs.
Vs. Opponent (Zac Gallen - Arizona Diamondbacks): Similar to Marte, Tovar has shown surprising power against Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen. In 10 plate appearances, Tovar has 6 hits, including 1 home run. He holds a remarkable .600 batting average and a 1.200 slugging percentage against Gallen.
🏟️ Park Factors (Chase Field):
Chase Field has a home run park factor of 90, indicating it's slightly less favorable for home runs.
💰 Analysis for the Over:
While Tovar's overall home run numbers are low, his past performance against Zac Gallen stands out. Hitting a home run and maintaining such high batting and slugging averages in a limited sample against a pitcher of Gallen's caliber suggests he sees the ball well off him. This specific individual matchup could be his best chance to hit one out today.
The Spencer Steer Bomb (Cincinnati Reds)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +900
Book Link: BetMGM
Recent Performance: Spencer Steer has struggled to hit home runs recently, with an over hit rate of 20% in his last 5 and 10 games, and only 10% over his last 20 games. His season average is 0.12 home runs per game.
Road Performance: As a visitor, his over hit rate for home runs is 9.62% over 52 games this season, with a mean of 0.1 home runs.
Vs. Opponent (Mitch Keller - Pittsburgh Pirates): Steer has faced Mitch Keller 23 times in his career, collecting 7 hits, including 1 home run. He has a .368 batting average and a .684 slugging percentage against Keller.
Vs. Opponent (Pittsburgh Pirates Team):Notably, Steer has not hit a home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates in 7 games in 2025 or 12 games in 2024, showing a 0% over hit rate against the team as a whole in the provided data.
🏟️ Park Factors (PNC Park):
PNC Park has a home run park factor of 76, making it significantly pitcher-friendly for home runs. This is one of the tougher parks to hit a long ball in.
💰 Analysis for the Over:
Despite a historical home run against Mitch Keller, Spencer Steer's overall trends are very unfavorable for hitting a home run, especially considering he hasn't hit one against the Pirates in nearly 20 games across two seasons. The extremely pitcher-friendly PNC Park further dampens the outlook for an "Over" bet. While the individual matchup against Keller shows some past success, the broader context suggests this would be a very long shot.
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