Dingers to Watch Today: Top Picks for Home Runs in MLB Games
- Lee Shipley
- Jul 10
- 4 min read
Updated: Jul 18
Are you ready to talk dingers? We're diving into today's MLB games to find the guys most likely to send one over the fence. We're looking at their recent performance, how they match up against opposing pitchers, and even the quirks of the ballparks. And get this: all our insights are powered by the incredible Pine Sports AI JaXon!
Key Players to Target for Home Runs Today
The Will Benson Bomb (Cincinnati Reds)
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +400
Book: ESPN BET
Analysis: Will Benson is on a power surge lately. He has hit a home run in 40% of his last 5 games. Notably, he knocked one out against the Marlins in their recent series. At home, where he has connected for 6 of his 7 season home runs, he may have an excellent opportunity today. His average is 0.16 home runs per game, but his recent form and home field advantage make +400 odds compelling.
The Aaron Judge Bomb (New York Yankees)
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +240
Book Link: ESPN BET
Aaron Judge is always a prime candidate to hit a home run. He has been hit by a streak, connecting for over 0.5 home runs in 60% of his last 5 games and 50% of his last 10 games. Recently, he hit his 34th home run of the season. Playing at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium further boosts his chances. Though he hasn't homered against today's pitcher, Bryan Woo, Judge's overall power and favorable conditions make him a strong pick.
The Juan Soto Bomb (New York Mets)
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +340
Book: BetRivers
Analysis: Juan Soto is showing life, with a home run in 20% of his last 5 games and 30% in 20 games. His season average is 0.23 home runs per game, combined with a solid history against the Orioles. Soto has hit 3 home runs in 13 games against them in 2024, offering a 23.08% hit rate. Although he didn't manage a home run in their only matchup last season, the +340 odds are compelling considering Soto's talent, especially considering the opponent.
The Adolis García Bomb (Texas Rangers)
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +450
Book: ESPN BET
Analysis: Adolis García has struggled lately, not hitting a home run in his last 5 games. He has only hit once in his last 15 games with a season average of 0.11 home runs per game. Though he has a decent history against the Angels, his recent performance doesn't suggest strong odds for a home run today. The +450 odds reflect the current statistical trends.
Today's Top Batters with High Slugging Percentages
Here are some batters who have recently shown high slugging percentages, indicating their ability to hit for extra bases:
Greene: .778 slugging percentage (in 10 plate appearances against Littell)
Juan Soto: .644 slugging percentage (across his last 15 days of action)
Matt Olson: .630 slugging percentage (across the last week)
James Wood: .551 slugging percentage (club-high for the Nationals)
Cody Bellinger: .472 slugging percentage
Lawrence Butler: .448 slugging percentage (on the season)
Wyatt Langford: .425 slugging percentage (on the season)
Jake Cronenworth: .405 slugging percentage
Marcell Ozuna: .390 slugging percentage
The Best MLB Ballparks for Home Runs Today!
1. Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati Reds)
Home Run Park Factor: This stadium stands out with a robust Home Run Park Factor of 126 for 2023-2025. It is significantly more conducive to home runs than the average MLB park. News narratives consistently highlight Great American Ball Park as one of the most home run-friendly venues in baseball.
Pitching Matchup Analysis:
- Cal Quantrill (Marlins): Quantrill has allowed 3 home runs in 42 plate appearances against the Reds roster. Reds hitters have shown significant power against him. Notably, Tyler Stephenson has a home run in 6 plate appearances, Jose Trevino has one in 8, and Will Benson hit a home run in his single plate appearance against Quantrill.
- Nick Lodolo (Reds): Lodolo has permitted 1 home run in 45 career plate appearances against the current Marlins roster. Eric Wagaman has a home run in 3 plate appearances against him.
Overall Outlook: With its high historical home run factor and individual matchups that favor power hitters, Great American Ball Park is primed for a high-scoring affair featuring plenty of long balls.
2. Yankee Stadium (New York Yankees)
Home Run Park Factor: Yankee Stadium boasts a strong Home Run Park Factor of 121 for 2023-2025, making it one of the most favorable environments for dingers in the league.
Pitching Matchup Analysis:
- Bryan Woo (Mariners): Woo has allowed 1 home run in 48 career plate appearances against the current Yankees roster. Jasson Domínguez has a home run in 5 plate appearances against Woo.
- Marcus Stroman (Yankees): Stroman has given up 3 home runs in 61 career plate appearances against the current Mariners roster. Randy Arozarena, Luke Raley, and Dominic Canzone have all connected against Stroman in their limited matchups.
Overall Outlook: The combination of Yankee Stadium's inherent home run tendencies and the powerful bats on both sides, especially Aaron Judge, sets the stage for a potential home run derby.
3. Angel Stadium (Los Angeles Angels)
Home Run Park Factor: Angel Stadium carries a Home Run Park Factor of 113 for 2023-2025, indicating it's well above average for home run production.
Pitching Matchup Analysis:
- Patrick Corbin (Rangers): Corbin has allowed 1 home run in 110 career plate appearances against the current Angels roster. Zach Neto has a home run in 3 plate appearances against him, and recent reports suggest Corbin is vulnerable today.
- Jack Kochanowicz (Angels): Kochanowicz has given up 2 home runs in 44 career plate appearances against the current Rangers roster. Adolis García showcases significant power with 2 home runs in just 6 plate appearances against Kochanowicz.
Overall Outlook: With a favorable park factor and key hitters facing pitchers who allowed home runs, Angel Stadium remains a strong candidate for a home run-heavy game.
By focusing on these players and favorable park conditions, today’s MLB lineup could lead to some thrilling long balls. Good luck, and happy betting!
Comments