Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 5/16/25
- Lee Shipley
- May 16
- 2 min read
After a couple of tough breaks, we're back with today's top MLB home run prop picks for May 16th. This curated selection combines the powerful predictive analytics of Pine Sports AI with the sharp insights of a baseball analytics expert, creating a potent blend of data-driven projections and seasoned human intuition. You'll find a detailed analysis below, covering recent player performance, current odds, and specific game context to give you the edge in your wagering. Let's get those home run calls right!
The Corbin Carroll Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Matchup: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Odds: +285 to hit a home run
Recent Form: Carroll has hit three home runs in his last three games, including a two-homer performance earlier this week.
Pitcher Matchup: Facing Tanner Gordon, who has a 5.68 ERA and struggles to keep the ball in the park.
Bet Link: FanDuel
The JT Realmuto Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)
Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies Game Time: 10:45 PM EST
Recent Performance:
Last 5 Games: Hit a home run in 40% of games.
Last 10 Games: Hit a home run in 30% of games.
Last 15 Games: Hit a home run in 26.67% of games.
Season Average: 13.51% hit rate (5 home runs in 37 games).
Home Performance:
At home this season, Realmuto has hit a home run in 26.32% of games.
Against Pittsburgh (2024):
No home runs in 4 games against the Pirates last season.
Betting Odds:
Analysis: Realmuto’s recent uptick in home run production (40% in the last 5 games) makes the +420 odds on the over intriguing. However, his season-long rate and lack of success against Pittsburgh temper expectations. This is a high-risk, high-reward play.
The Tyrone Taylor Bomb
(New York Mets)
Matchup: New York Mets @ New York Yankees Game Time: 11:05 PM EST
Recent Performance:
Last 5 Games: No home runs (0% hit rate).
Last 10 Games: No home runs (0% hit rate).
Last 15 Games: Hit a home run in 6.67% of games.
Season Average: 2.63% hit rate (1 home run in 38 games).
Against Yankees (2024):
Hit a home run in 50% of games (2 home runs in 4 games).
Betting Odds:
Analysis:Taylor’s season-long struggles (2.63% home run rate) make the over a long shot, but his past success against the Yankees (50% hit rate) adds intrigue. The +700 odds on the over are enticing for those seeking a high-payout gamble.
Comments